Rafael Nadal and Matteo Berrettini will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Australian Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 2:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 4 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.46
Matteo Berrettini -> 2.98
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Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Matteo Berrettini
This will be the 2nd time that Rafael Nadal and Matteo Berrettini play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Nadal won 7-6(6) 6-4 6-1 in the semifinal in at the U.S. Open back in 2019.
Highlights Rafael Nadal vs Matteo Berrettini – U.S. Open 06-September-2019
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4-2 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Nadal got to the semifinal after beating Marcos Giron 6-1 6-4 6-2, Yannick Hanfmann 6-2 6-3 6-4, Karen Khachanov 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1, Adrian Mannarino 7-614 6-2 6-2 and Denis Shapovalov 6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3.
In the quarter, Nadal had a tough win against Shapovalov to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3). During the match, Nadal scored 148 points vs Shapovalov’s 135. Rafael was quite aggressive to blast 79 winners.
Talking about the service games, Nadal bagged 8 aces and he was not very consistent on his 2nd serve to score 11 double faults. Rafael Nadal lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Nadal put 68% of his first serves in, winning 79% (79/100) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (21/46) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Shapovalov 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has dropped 3 set in this event to win 56% of the points he played.
Nadal has an extraordinary win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (453-87). 8-0 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Nadal has a compiled 184-43 record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in in Melbourne where he beat Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3.
Nadal has a compiled 8-0 win-loss record in 2022, 8-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Matteo Berrettini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9-3 | 4-2 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 14-12 | 9-10 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 32-12 | 15-9 | 4-2 | 4-1 | 9-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 41-12 | 14-5 | 13-4 | 3-2 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 9-6 | 5-3 | 4-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7 (career-high), the Italian got to the semifinal after beating Brandon Nakashima 4-6 6-2 7-65 6-3, Stefan Kozlov 6-1 4-6 6-4 6-1, Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 6-2 7-63 4-6 2-6 7-65, Pablo Carreno-Busta 7-5 7-64 6-4 and Gael Monfils 6-4 6-4 3-6 3-6 6-2.
In the quarter, Berrettini had a tough win against Monfils to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (6-4 6-4 3-6 3-6 6-2). During the match Berrettini scored 156 points vs Monfils’s 150. Matteo was extremely aggressive to blast 76 winners.
About the serving games, Berrettini made 12 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Matteo Berrettini was very efficient on serve to win 74% (76/103) of his 1st serve and 51% (34/67) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. Matteo broke Monfils 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has conceded 6 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Matteo has a composed 6-2 win-loss record in 2022, 6-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nadal | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 18 | 21 |
| Tot Games | 161 | 207 |
| Pts | 566-443 | 682-609 |
| Total Points | 1009 | 1291 |
| Winners | 254 | 340 |
| %Winners | 45% | 50% |
Both Nadal and Berrettini played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Rafael Nadal conceded 3 sets, while Matteo Berrettini lost 6 sets. Nadal has played 3 set(s) less than Berrettini (18 vs 21). Therefore, Nadal played 46 games less than Berrettini. Nadal scored 254 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo bagged 340 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nadal | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 36 | 92 |
| Avg per match | 7.2 | 18.4 |
| 1st in | 311/489 | 437/654 |
| %1st in | 64% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 254/311 | 340/437 |
| %1st pts | 82% | 78% |
| 2nd pts | 101/178 | 114/217 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 53% |
Nadal blasted 36 aces (7.2 per match). Berrettini made 92 aces (18.4 per match). Nadal won 82% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Berrettini won 78% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nadal | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 22 | 18 |
| Converted | 22/64 | 18/53 |
| % Converted | 34% | 34% |
| Conceded | 19 | 42 |
| Saved | 15 | 33 |
| % Saved | 79% | 79% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 9 |
The Spaniard broke his opponents 22 times with a 34% conversion rate. Rafael conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 18 times with a 34% conversion rate. Berrettini conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nadal | |||||||
| R1 Giron |
R2 Hanfmann |
R3 Khachanov |
R4 Mannarino |
1/4 Shapovalov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1 | 7-614 6-2 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 18 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 27 | 33 | 29 | 47 | 161 | |
| pts | 91-55 | 102-79 | 118-89 | 107-85 | 148-135 | 566-443 | |
| Total points | 146 | 181 | 207 | 192 | 283 | 1009 | |
| Winners | 43 | 35 | 55 | 42 | 79 | 254 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 34% | 47% | 39% | 53% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 36 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 30 | |
| 1st in | 51/72 | 46/85 | 66/98 | 48/88 | 100/146 | 311/489 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 54% | 67% | 55% | 68% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 43/51 | 35/46 | 55/66 | 42/48 | 79/100 | 254/311 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 76% | 83% | 88% | 79% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/21 | 25/39 | 18/32 | 24/40 | 21/46 | 101/178 | |
| % 2nd pts | 62% | 64% | 56% | 60% | 46% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 22 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/16 | 5/15 | 5/17 | 3/7 | 22/64 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 25% | 33% | 29% | 43% | 34% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 19 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2/2 | 4/5 | 1/2 | 6/8 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 80% | 50% | 75% | 81% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Berrettini | |||||||
| R1 Nakashima |
R2 Kozlov |
R3 Alcaraz |
R4 Carreno-Busta |
1/4 Monfils |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-2 7-65 6-3 | 6-1 4-6 6-4 6-1 | 6-2 7-63 4-6 2-6 7-65 | 7-5 7-64 6-4 | 6-4 6-4 3-6 3-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | |
| Tot Games | 40 | 34 | 52 | 35 | 46 | 207 | |
| pts | 128-118 | 124-90 | 159-159 | 115-92 | 156-150 | 682-609 | |
| Total points | 246 | 214 | 318 | 207 | 306 | 1291 | |
| Winners | 57 | 55 | 90 | 62 | 76 | 340 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 44% | 57% | 54% | 49% | 50% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 21 | 21 | 10 | 28 | 12 | 92 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 78/129 | 70/100 | 115/163 | 71/92 | 103/170 | 437/654 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 70% | 71% | 77% | 61% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 57/78 | 55/70 | 90/115 | 62/71 | 76/103 | 340/437 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 79% | 78% | 87% | 74% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 30/51 | 17/30 | 21/48 | 12/21 | 34/67 | 114/217 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 57% | 44% | 57% | 51% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 | |
| Converted | 3/11 | 6/16 | 3/8 | 2/7 | 4/11 | 18/53 | |
| Converted % | 27% | 38% | 38% | 29% | 36% | 34% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 14 | 42 | |
| Saved | 8/9 | 4/5 | 9/13 | 1/1 | 11/14 | 33 | |
| Saved % | 89% | 80% | 69% | 100% | 79% | 83% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWLWW
LWWWWWLLWW Tennis Scores – Australian Open
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Rafael NadalNadal (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (2-6) – H2H and prediction
