H2H, PREDICTION Rafael Nadal vs Matteo Berrettini | Australian Open odds, preview, pick

PREVIEW. Melbourne. Nadal and Berrettini will square off in the semifinal of the Australian Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match

Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Matteo Berrettini

Rafael Nadal and Matteo Berrettini will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Australian Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 2:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 4 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.46
Matteo Berrettini -> 2.98

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

See Updated Draw
Bet356 Bonus

Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Matteo Berrettini

This will be the 2nd time that Rafael Nadal and Matteo Berrettini play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Nadal won 7-6(6) 6-4 6-1 in the semifinal in at the U.S. Open back in 2019.

Highlights Rafael Nadal vs Matteo Berrettini – U.S. Open 06-September-2019

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
153
High
1
LLWLWWWWLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 12-8 2-1 10-6 0-1 0-0 0-0
2023 1-3 1-3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2022 39-8 23-3 10-2 1-3 5-0 0-0
2021 24-5 5-2 19-3 0-0 0-0 0-0
2020 27-7 13-3 9-1 5-3 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 5, Nadal got to the semifinal after beating Marcos Giron 6-1 6-4 6-2, Yannick Hanfmann 6-2 6-3 6-4, Karen Khachanov 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1, Adrian Mannarino 7-614 6-2 6-2 and Denis Shapovalov 6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3.

In the quarter, Nadal had a tough win against Shapovalov to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3). During the match, Nadal scored 148 points vs Shapovalov’s 135. Rafael was quite aggressive to blast 79 winners.

Talking about the service games, Nadal bagged 8 aces and he was not very consistent on his 2nd serve to score 11 double faults. Rafael Nadal lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Nadal put 68% of his first serves in, winning 79% (79/100) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (21/46) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Shapovalov 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Spaniard has dropped 3 set in this event to win 56% of the points he played.

Nadal has an extraordinary win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (453-87). 8-0 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Nadal has a compiled 184-43 record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current year was winning the title in in Melbourne where he beat Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3.

Nadal has a compiled 8-0 win-loss record in 2022, 8-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Nadal
Australian Open
Nadal's Record

Matteo Berrettini

Matteo Berrettini
Matteo Berrettini

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
34
High
6
WWLLWWLWLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 36-13 7-6 15-1 8-3 6-3 0-0
2023 14-12 9-10 2-0 0-0 3-2 0-0
2022 32-12 15-9 4-2 4-1 9-0 0-0
2021 41-12 14-5 13-4 3-2 11-1 0-0
2020 9-6 5-3 4-2 0-1 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 7 (career-high), the Italian got to the semifinal after beating Brandon Nakashima 4-6 6-2 7-65 6-3, Stefan Kozlov 6-1 4-6 6-4 6-1, Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 6-2 7-63 4-6 2-6 7-65, Pablo Carreno-Busta 7-5 7-64 6-4 and Gael Monfils 6-4 6-4 3-6 3-6 6-2.

In the quarter, Berrettini had a tough win against Monfils to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (6-4 6-4 3-6 3-6 6-2). During the match Berrettini scored 156 points vs Monfils’s 150. Matteo was extremely aggressive to blast 76 winners.

About the serving games, Berrettini made 12 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Matteo Berrettini was very efficient on serve to win 74% (76/103) of his 1st serve and 51% (34/67) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. Matteo broke Monfils 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian has conceded 6 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Matteo has a composed 6-2 win-loss record in 2022, 6-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021. See his history.

Berrettini
Australian Open
Berrettini's Record
Bet356 Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

R.Nadal
M.Berrettini
14h:09
14h:09
Time on court​
16h:09
16h:09
!
4h:08
4h:08
Last match​
!
3h:49
3h:49
5
5
Match played
5
5
161
161
Games Played​
207
207
18
18
Set played​​
21
21
566
566
Total points​
682
682
113.2
113.2
Avg point​
136.4
136.4
254
254
Winners
340
340
50.8
50.8
Avg Winners​
68
68
45%
45%
Ratio winners
50%
50%
-- Serve --
36
36
Aces
92
92
7.2
7.2
Avg Aces
!
18.4
18.4
30
30
Double Faults
8
8
!
6
6
Avg Double Faults
1.6
1.6
254/311
254/311
1st won total​
340/437
340/437
!
82%
82%
1st won %
!
78%
78%
101/178
101/178
2nd won total​
114/217
114/217
57%
57%
2nd won %
53%
53%
-- Break Points --
22/64
22/64
BP won
18/53
18/53
4.4/12.8
4.4/12.8
Avg BP won
3.6/10.6
3.6/10.6
34%
34%
Won
34%
34%
19
19
Conceded
42
42
3.8
3.8
Avg Conceded
8.4
8.4
4
4
Broken
9
9
!
0.8
0.8
Avg Broken
1.8
1.8
15
15
Saved
33
33

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Nadal Berrettini
Match played 5 5
Tot Set 18 21
Tot Games 161 207
Pts 566-443 682-609
Total Points 1009 1291
Winners 254 340
%Winners 45% 50%

Both Nadal and Berrettini played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Rafael Nadal conceded 3 sets, while Matteo Berrettini lost 6 sets. Nadal has played 3 set(s) less than Berrettini (18 vs 21). Therefore, Nadal played 46 games less than Berrettini. Nadal scored 254 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo bagged 340 winners (50%).

Serve Performance

Serve Nadal Berrettini
Aces 36 92
Avg per match 7.2 18.4
1st in 311/489 437/654
%1st in 64% 67%
1st pts 254/311 340/437
%1st pts 82% 78%
2nd pts 101/178 114/217
%2nd pts 57% 53%

Nadal blasted 36 aces (7.2 per match). Berrettini made 92 aces (18.4 per match). Nadal won 82% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Berrettini won 78% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Nadal Berrettini
Won 22 18
Converted 22/64 18/53
% Converted 34% 34%
Conceded 19 42
Saved 15 33
% Saved 79% 79%
Times Broken 4 9

The Spaniard broke his opponents 22 times with a 34% conversion rate. Rafael conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 18 times with a 34% conversion rate. Berrettini conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded.

Nadal
R1
Giron
R2
Hanfmann
R3
Khachanov
R4
Mannarino
1/4
Shapovalov
Total
Score 6-1 6-4 6-2 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1 7-614 6-2 6-2 6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3
Tot Set 3 3 4 3 5 18
Tot Games 25 27 33 29 47 161
pts 91-55 102-79 118-89 107-85 148-135 566-443
Total points 146 181 207 192 283 1009
Winners 43 35 55 42 79 254
%Winners 47% 34% 47% 39% 53% 45%
SERVE
Aces 7 1 4 16 8 36
Double Faults 2 5 6 6 11 30
1st in 51/72 46/85 66/98 48/88 100/146 311/489
% 1st in 71% 54% 67% 55% 68% 64%
1st pts 43/51 35/46 55/66 42/48 79/100 254/311
% 1st pts 84% 76% 83% 88% 79% 82%
2nd pts 13/21 25/39 18/32 24/40 21/46 101/178
% 2nd pts 62% 64% 56% 60% 46% 57%
Breaks
Won 5 4 5 5 3 22
Converted 5/9 4/16 5/15 5/17 3/7 22/64
Converted % 56% 25% 33% 29% 43% 34%
Conceded 2 2 5 2 8 19
Saved 2/2 2/2 4/5 1/2 6/8 15
Saved % 100% 100% 80% 50% 75% 81%
Times Broken 0 0 1 1 2 4
Berrettini
R1
Nakashima
R2
Kozlov
R3
Alcaraz
R4
Carreno-Busta
1/4
Monfils
Total
Score 4-6 6-2 7-65 6-3 6-1 4-6 6-4 6-1 6-2 7-63 4-6 2-6 7-65 7-5 7-64 6-4 6-4 6-4 3-6 3-6 6-2
Tot Set 4 4 5 3 5 21
Tot Games 40 34 52 35 46 207
pts 128-118 124-90 159-159 115-92 156-150 682-609
Total points 246 214 318 207 306 1291
Winners 57 55 90 62 76 340
%Winners 45% 44% 57% 54% 49% 50%
SERVE
Aces 21 21 10 28 12 92
Double Faults 2 1 2 1 2 8
1st in 78/129 70/100 115/163 71/92 103/170 437/654
% 1st in 60% 70% 71% 77% 61% 67%
1st pts 57/78 55/70 90/115 62/71 76/103 340/437
% 1st pts 73% 79% 78% 87% 74% 78%
2nd pts 30/51 17/30 21/48 12/21 34/67 114/217
% 2nd pts 59% 57% 44% 57% 51% 53%
Breaks
Won 3 6 3 2 4 18
Converted 3/11 6/16 3/8 2/7 4/11 18/53
Converted % 27% 38% 38% 29% 36% 34%
Conceded 9 5 13 1 14 42
Saved 8/9 4/5 9/13 1/1 11/14 33
Saved % 89% 80% 69% 100% 79% 83%
Times Broken 1 1 4 0 3 9

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Nadal
LLWLWWWWLL
Berrettini
WWLLWWLWLW
2024 2023 2022
12 - 7
31 - 13
2-1
Hard
7-6
0-0
I Hard
3-3
10-6
Clay
15-1
0-0
Grass
6-3

Tennis Scores – Australian Open

  • Matthew Ebden/Max PurcellEbden/Max PurcellRajeev Ram/Joe SalisburyRam/Joe Salisbury (6-3 7-69) – Stats, scores, rankings
See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bet356 Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw