Aslan Karatsev and Adrian Mannarino will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the Australian Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 9:00 pm on Margaret Court Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aslan Karatsev who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aslan Karatsev is the pick to win this match.
Aslan Karatsev -> 1.24
Adrian Mannarino -> 4.45
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Prediction and head to head Aslan Karatsev vs. Adrian Mannarino
There is no head to head record between Aslan Karatsev and Adrian Mannarino since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Aslan Karatsev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-11 | 14-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 12-18 | 6-9 | 1-4 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-22 | 13-10 | 14-5 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 18-31 | 8-9 | 5-9 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-20 | 23-9 | 9-6 | 4-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 15 (career-high), the Russian got to the 3rd round after beating Jaume Antoni Munar Clar 3-6 7-61 6-73 6-4 6-4 and Mackenzie Mcdonald 3-6 6-2 6-2 6-3.
In the 2nd round against Mcdonald, Aslan recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-2 6-2 6-3). During the match, Karatsev scored 111 points vs Mcdonald’s 101. Karatsev was pretty aggressive to blast 47 winners.
Regarding the service games, Karatsev scored 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Aslan Karatsev lost the serve 3 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Karatsev put 65% of his first serves in, winning 72% (47/65) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (17/35) on the 2nd serve. Aslan broke Mcdonald 7 times after converting 41% of his break points (7/17).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aslan started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has lost 3 set in this competition to win 51% of the points he played.
Karatsev has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (339-201). 6-0 on hard in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Karatsev has an aggregate 140-63 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the season was conquering the title in in Sydney where he overcame Andy Murray in the final 6-3 6-3.
The Russian has a composed 6-0 win-loss record in 2022, 6-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Adrian Mannarino
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35-37 | 16-16 | 5-9 | 0-6 | 14-6 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 17-33 | 9-17 | 0-5 | 7-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-29 | 15-13 | 2-8 | 15-4 | 12-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 31-32 | 18-14 | 1-6 | 8-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 14-26 | 5-7 | 0-7 | 5-8 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 69, Adrian got to the 3rd round after defeating James Duckworth 6-4 2-6 3-6 6-2 6-1 and Hubert Hurkacz 6-4 6-2 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Adrian had a good straight sets win against Hurkacz (6-4 6-2 6-3). During the match Mannarino scored 103 points vs Hurkacz’s 78. Adrian was extremely aggressive to blast 42 winners.
Talking about serving, Mannarino struck 6 aces and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Adrian Mannarino was pretty effective on serve to win 71% (42/59) of his 1st serve and 57% (17/30) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Adrian broke Hurkacz 6 times after converting 43% of his break points (6/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Mannarino started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Adrian has a composed 2-2 win-loss record in 2022, 2-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2018 and 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Karatsev | Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 89 | 69 |
| Pts | 295-289 | 244-203 |
| Total Points | 584 | 447 |
| Winners | 119 | 97 |
| %Winners | 40% | 40% |
Both Karatsev and Mannarino played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aslan Karatsev lost 3 sets, while Adrian Mannarino lost 2 sets. Karatsev has played 1 set more than Mannarino (9 vs 8). Therefore, Karatsev played 20 games more than Mannarino. The Russian scored 119 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The French player bagged 97 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Karatsev | Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 24 |
| Avg per match | 6.5 | 12 |
| 1st in | 175/292 | 138/218 |
| %1st in | 60% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 119/175 | 97/138 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 55/117 | 41/80 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 51% |
Karatsev bagged 13 aces (6.5 per match). Mannarino managed to score 24 aces (12 per match). Karatsev won 68% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Mannarino won 70% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Karatsev | Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 14 |
| Converted | 15/44 | 14/29 |
| % Converted | 34% | 48% |
| Conceded | 22 | 27 |
| Saved | 11 | 20 |
| % Saved | 50% | 74% |
| Times Broken | 11 | 7 |
Karatsev broke his opponents 15 times with a 34% conversion rate. The Russian lost his serve 11 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Mannarino broke his opponents 14 times with a 48% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 74% of the break points that he conceded.
| Karatsev | ||||
| R1 Munar Clar |
R2 Mcdonald |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 7-61 6-73 6-4 6-4 | 3-6 6-2 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 55 | 34 | 89 | |
| pts | 184-188 | 111-101 | 295-289 | |
| Total points | 372 | 212 | 584 | |
| Winners | 72 | 47 | 119 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 42% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 7 | 6 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 3 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 110/192 | 65/100 | 175/292 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 65% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 72/110 | 47/65 | 119/175 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 72% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 38/82 | 17/35 | 55/117 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 49% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 8 | 7 | 15 | |
| Converted | 8/27 | 7/17 | 15/44 | |
| Converted % | 30% | 41% | 34% | |
| Conceded | 17 | 5 | 22 | |
| Saved | 9/17 | 2/5 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 53% | 40% | 47% | |
| Times Broken | 8 | 3 | 11 | |
| Mannarino | ||||
| R1 Duckworth |
R2 Hurkacz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 2-6 3-6 6-2 6-1 | 6-4 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 42 | 27 | 69 | |
| pts | 141-125 | 103-78 | 244-203 | |
| Total points | 266 | 181 | 447 | |
| Winners | 55 | 42 | 97 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 41% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 18 | 6 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 79/129 | 59/89 | 138/218 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 66% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 55/79 | 42/59 | 97/138 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 71% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/50 | 17/30 | 41/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 57% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 8 | 6 | 14 | |
| Converted | 8/15 | 6/14 | 14/29 | |
| Converted % | 53% | 43% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 17 | 10 | 27 | |
| Saved | 11/17 | 9/10 | 20 | |
| Saved % | 65% | 90% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLLWLWLLW
LLLLWLWWWL Tennis Scores – Australian Open
- Maxime CressyCressy – Tomas MachacMachac (6-1 3-6 6-1 7-65) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-4 6-3 7-65) – See score progression
- Marin CilicCilic – Norbert GombosGombos (6-2 6-3 3-6 7-66) – See score progression
- Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman (7-66 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Richard BerankisBerankis (6-4 6-2 6-0) – See score progression
- Daniel EvansEvans – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (w/o) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (6-4 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Philipp KohlschreiberKohlschreiber (6-1 6-0 6-3) – See score progression
- Pablo AndujarAndujar – Alex MolcanMolcan (6-4 7-66 0-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – John MillmanMillman (6-4 6-4 6-0) – See score progression
- Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-4 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Corentin MoutetMoutet (3-6 6-4 6-72 7-5 7-66) – See score progression
- Radu AlbotAlbot – Aleksandar VukicVukic (6-4 7-64 6-4) – See score progression
- Reilly OpelkaOpelka – Dominik KoepferKoepfer (6-4 6-3 7-64) – See score progression
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Alexander BublikBublik (6-1 6-0 6-4) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (6-3 6-76 7-63 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Soon-Woo KwonKwon (7-66 6-73 6-76 7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Tommy PaulPaul (7-67 7-5 7-68) – See score progression
- Cristian GarinGarin – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (6-71 7-64 2-6 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Dusan LajovicLajovic (6-2 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Rafael NadalNadal – Yannick HanfmannHanfmann (6-2 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Aslan KaratsevKaratsev – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (3-6 6-2 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Benjamin BonziBonzi (6-4 6-0 7-5) – See score progression
- Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Oscar OtteOtte (2-6 6-2 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Stefan KozlovKozlov (6-1 4-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Pablo AndujarAndujar – Alex MolcanMolcan (6-4 7-6(6) 0-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (6-4 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Philipp KohlschreiberKohlschreiber (6-1 6-0 6-3) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-4 6-3 7-6(5)) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Richard BerankisBerankis (6-4 6-2 6-0) – See score progression
- Marin CilicCilic – Norbert GombosGombos (6-2 6-3 3-6 7-6(6)) – See score progression
- Daniel EvansEvans – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (w/o) – See score progression
- Christopher O’ConnellO’Connell – Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman (7-6(6) 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Maxime CressyCressy – Tomas MachacMachac (6-1 3-6 6-1 7-6(5)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Andy MurrayMurray – Taro DanielDaniel (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Steve JohnsonJohnson – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Benoit PairePaire (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Richard GasquetGasquet – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Christian GarinGarin (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Radu AlbotAlbot (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Reilly OpelkaOpelka – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Rafael NadalNadal (0-7) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo AndujarAndujar – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (5-1) – H2H and prediction
- Andrey RublevRublev – Marin CilicCilic (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Maxime CressyCressy (0-0) – H2H and prediction
