Daria Kasatkina and Madison Keys will square off in the 2nd round of the Melbourne Summer Set 2 for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 11:00 am on Rod Laver Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daria Kasatkina who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daria Kasatkina is the pick to win this match.
Daria Kasatkina -> 1.84
Madison Keys -> 2.01
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Prediction and head to head Daria Kasatkina vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 8th time that Daria Kasatkina and Madison Keys clash against each other. The head to head is 7-0 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 7-0 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Keys won 6-3 6-1 in the 1st round in at the Australian Open back in 2020.
Highlights Madison Keys vs Daria Kasatkina – Australian Open 21-January-2020
Daria Kasatkina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 40-22 | 24-16 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-25 | 19-15 | 12-6 | 2-1 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-22 | 24-14 | 12-5 | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-19 | 19-10 | 5-5 | 7-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 18-14 | 7-8 | 5-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 26, Darya got to the 2nd round after defeating Anna Kalinskaya 6-1 3-0 ret..
In the 1st round, Darya had a good straight sets win against Kalinskaya (6-1 3-0 ret.). During the match, Kasatkina scored 45 points vs Kalinskaya’s 28. The Russian was pretty aggressive to blast 21 winners.
Regarding the service games, Kasatkina struck 5 aces and she was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults. Daria Kasatkina conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 5 break points. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 73% of her first serves in, winning 72% (21/29) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (5/11) on the 2nd serve. The Russian was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Kalinskaya 4 times.
Kasatkina has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of her matches (266-147). 1-0 on hard in 2022. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Kasatkina has an overall 106-77 record in the last years on hard.
Darya has a composed 1-0 win-loss record in 2022, 1-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Melbourne
Darya has never competed in this tournament before.
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 8-5 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 56, the American got to the 2nd round after defeating Harriet Dart 6-3 7-62.
In the 1st round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Dart (6-3 7-62). During the match Keys scored 78 points vs Dart’s 60. The American was quite aggressive to blast 34 winners.
About the serving games, Keys bagged 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Madison Keys was exceptionally effective on serve to win 71% (34/48) of her 1st serve and 67% (12/18) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Madison broke Dart twice after converting 33% of her break points (2/6).
Madison has a compiled 1-0 win-loss record in 2022, 1-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Melbourne
The American has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 10 | 22 |
| Pts | 45-28 | 78-60 |
| Total Points | 73 | 138 |
| Winners | 21 | 34 |
| %Winners | 47% | 44% |
Both Kasatkina and Keys played 1 match. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Kasatkina has played 1 set more than Keys (3 vs 2). However, it’s interesting to notice that Kasatkina played 12 games less than Keys. The Russian scored 21 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Madison scored 34 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 4 |
| 1st in | 29/40 | 48/66 |
| %1st in | 73% | 73% |
| 1st pts | 21/29 | 34/48 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 5/11 | 12/18 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 67% |
Kasatkina bagged 5 aces . Keys bagged 4 aces . Kasatkina won 72% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 71% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 67% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 2 |
| Converted | 4/4 | 2/6 |
| % Converted | 100% | 33% |
| Conceded | 5 | 1 |
| Saved | 5 | 0 |
| % Saved | 100% | 0% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 |
Kasatkina broke her opponent 4 times with a 100% conversion rate. Darya pretty solid on her serve as she has never dropped a single service game after saving 5 break points. Keys broke her opponent twice with a 33% conversion rate. Madison conceded her serve once and she saved 0% of the break points that she conceded.
| Kasatkina | |||
| R1 Kalinskaya |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 3-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 10 | 10 | |
| pts | 45-28 | 45-28 | |
| Total points | 73 | 73 | |
| Winners | 21 | 21 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 29/40 | 29/40 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 21/29 | 21/29 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/11 | 5/11 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/4 | 4/4 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 5/5 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Keys | |||
| R1 Dart |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 22 | |
| pts | 78-60 | 78-60 | |
| Total points | 138 | 138 | |
| Winners | 34 | 34 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 48/66 | 48/66 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 34/48 | 34/48 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/18 | 12/18 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 67% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 2/6 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWLWLW
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Upcoming matches in the draw
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- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Madison KeysKeys (0-7) – H2H and prediction
- Nuria Parrizas-DiazParrizas-Diaz – Claire LiuLiu (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ann LiLi – Anastasija SevastovaSevastova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova – Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Clara TausonTauson – Lin ZhuZhu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Rebecca PetersonPeterson – Aliaksandra SasnovichSasnovich (1-0) – H2H and prediction
