Rafael Nadal and Denis Shapovalov will play each other in the 3rd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 7:00 pm on CENTER COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.2
Denis Shapovalov -> 5.05
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Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Denis Shapovalov
This will be the 6th time that Rafael Nadal and Denis Shapovalov play each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Nadal won 6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 in the quarter in at the Australian Open back in January 2022.
Highlights Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov – Australian Open 25-January-2022
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7-5 | 2-1 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, Rafael got to the 3rd round after defeating John Isner 6-3 6-1.
In the 2nd round, Nadal had a good straight sets win against Isner (6-3 6-1). During the match, Nadal scored 58 points vs Isner’s 38. Rafael was exceptionally aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about the service games, Nadal scored just 1 ace throughout the match and he committed only 2 double faults. Rafael Nadal was exceptionally effective on serve to win 81% (22/27) of his 1st serve and 59% (13/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Rafael broke Isner 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Nadal has a good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (468-89). 3-1 on clay in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Nadal has an aggregate 213-25 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the year was winning the title in in Melbourne where he beat Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3 and in at the Australian Open where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5 and in in Acapulco where he defeated Cameron Norrie in the final 6-4 6-4.
The Spaniard has a composed 23-2 win-loss record in 2022, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Denis Shapovalov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 14-17 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 13-13 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 34-26 | 22-12 | 4-4 | 7-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-23 | 11-11 | 7-6 | 4-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-15 | 8-6 | 5-2 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 16, Shapovalov got to the 3rd round after defeating Lorenzo Sonego 7-65 3-6 6-3 and Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-4 7-65.
In the 2nd round, Denis had a good straight sets win against Basilashvili (6-4 7-65). During the match Shapovalov scored 73 points vs Basilashvili’s 65. The Canadian was extremely aggressive to blast 40 winners.
About the serving games, Shapovalov struck 7 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Denis Shapovalov conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 1 break points. Furthermore, Shapovalov put 70% of his first serves in, winning 85% (40/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (10/20) on the 2nd serve. The Canadian broke Basilashvili once after converting 25% of his break points (1/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Shapovalov has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
Shapovalov’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Dubai.
Denis has a composed 15-8 win-loss record in 2022, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nadal | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 16 | 54 |
| Pts | 58-38 | 183-170 |
| Total Points | 96 | 353 |
| Winners | 22 | 83 |
| %Winners | 38% | 45% |
Nadal played 1 match while Shapovalov competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Denis Shapovalov surrendered 1 set while Rafael Nadal hasn’t conceded a set so far. Nadal has played 3 set(s) less than Shapovalov (2 vs 5). Therefore, Nadal played 38 games less than Shapovalov. Nadal scored 22 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, The Canadian struck 83 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nadal | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 5 |
| 1st in | 27/49 | 102/170 |
| %1st in | 55% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 22/27 | 83/102 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 81% |
| 2nd pts | 13/22 | 35/68 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 51% |
Nadal made 1 ace . Shapovalov also managed to score 10 aces (5 per match). Nadal won 81% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Shapovalov won 81% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nadal | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 3 |
| Converted | 4/6 | 3/13 |
| % Converted | 67% | 23% |
| Conceded | 2 | 6 |
| Saved | 2 | 4 |
| % Saved | 100% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 |
Nadal broke his opponent 4 times with a 67% conversion rate. Nadal very solid his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 2 break points. The Canadian broke his opponents 3 times with a 23% conversion rate. Shapovalov conceded his serve twice and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nadal | |||
| R2 Isner |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 16 | |
| pts | 58-38 | 58-38 | |
| Total points | 96 | 96 | |
| Winners | 22 | 22 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 27/49 | 27/49 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 22/27 | 22/27 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/22 | 13/22 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 59% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 4/6 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 67% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Shapovalov | ||||
| R1 Sonego |
R2 Basilashvili |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 3-6 6-3 | 6-4 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 23 | 54 | |
| pts | 110-105 | 73-65 | 183-170 | |
| Total points | 215 | 138 | 353 | |
| Winners | 43 | 40 | 83 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 55% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 7 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 4 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 55/103 | 47/67 | 102/170 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 70% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 43/55 | 40/47 | 83/102 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 85% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/48 | 10/20 | 35/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 50% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Converted | 2/9 | 1/4 | 3/13 | |
| Converted % | 22% | 25% | 23% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 1/1 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 100% | 160% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWLWWWLWL
LWWLWLLWWL Tennis Scores in Rome
- Stan WawrinkaWawrinka – Laslo DjereDjere (7-68 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (6-4 2-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Rafael NadalNadal – John IsnerIsner (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Marin CilicCilic – Cameron NorrieNorrie (5-7 6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Marcos GironGiron – Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman (6-1 7-64) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (6-3 5-7 7-64) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Sebastian BaezBaez (7-66 6-3) – See score progression
- Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – David GoffinGoffin (6-0 7-61) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Fabio FogniniFognini (6-2 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Tommy PaulPaul (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (4-6 7-62 6-2) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (6-4 7-65) – See score progression
- Filip KrajinovicKrajinovic – Andrey RublevRublev (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (6-74 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Cristian GarinGarin – Emil RuusuvuoriRuusuvuori (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Fabio FogniniFognini (6-2 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Marin CilicCilic – Cameron NorrieNorrie (5-7 6-2 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Rafael NadalNadal – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (21-6) – H2H and prediction
- Filip KrajinovicKrajinovic – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Marcos GironGiron – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Christian GarinGarin – Marin CilicCilic (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-4) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Alexander ZverevZverev (1-5) – H2H and prediction
- Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
