H2H, PREDICTION Aryna Sabalenka vs Serena Williams | Australian Open odds, preview, pick

PREVIEW. Melbourne. Sabalenka and Williams will fight against each other in the 4th round of the Australian Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their next match

Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Serena Williams

Aryna Sabalenka and Serena Williams will square off in the 4th round of the Australian Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.86
Serena Williams -> 2.03

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Serena Williams

There is no head to head record between Aryna Sabalenka and Serena Williams since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Aryna Sabalenka

Ranked no. 7 (career high), Aryna reached the 4th round after defeating Viktoria Kuzmova 6-0 6-4, Daria Kasatkina 7-65 6-3 and Ann Li 6-3 6-1.

In the 3rd round, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Li (6-3 6-1). During the match Sabalenka scored 67 points vs Li’s 44. Aryna was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka fired 7 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was pretty effective on serve to win 78% (28/36) of her 1st serve and 56% (10/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sabalenka broke Li 4 times after converting 40% of her break points (4/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sabalenka hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to conquer 57% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 6 years having won 66% of her matches (194-101). 9-1 on hard in 2021. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a 119-51 record in the last 6 years on hard.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in in Abu Dhabi where she defeated Veronika Kudermetova in the final 6-2 6-2.

Aryna has a 9-1 win-loss record in 2021, 9-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Last year at the Australian Open

Aryna lost in the 1st round to Carla Suarez Navarro.

Serena Williams

Ranked no. 11, Serena reached the 4th round after defeating Laura Siegemund 6-1 6-1, Nina Stojanovic 6-3 6-0 and Anastasia Potapova 7-65 6-2.

In the 3rd round, Serena had a good straight sets win against Potapova (7-65 6-2). During the match Williams scored 78 points vs Potapova’s 63. Williams was extremely aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Talking about serving, Williams scored 9 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Serena Williams lost the serve 3 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Williams put 63% of her first serves in, winning 77% (36/47) of the points behind her 1st serve and 32% (9/28) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Potapova 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Serena hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 61% of the points she played.

Serena’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Melbourne.

Serena has a 6-0 win-loss record in 2021, 6-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Last year at the Australian Open

Williams capitulated in the 3rd round to Qiang Wang.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Sabalenka Williams
Match played 3 3
Tot Set 6 6
Tot Games 54 50
Pts 194-145 193-124
Total Points 339 317
Winners 68 76
%Winners 35% 39%

Both Sabalenka and Williams played 3 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Williams have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Sabalenka played 4 games more than Williams. The Belarussian scored 68 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Serena bagged 76 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve Sabalenka Williams
Aces 16 19
Avg per match 5.3 6.3
1st in 94/162 95/158
%1st in 58% 60%
1st pts 68/94 76/95
%1st pts 72% 80%
2nd pts 35/68 29/63
%2nd pts 51% 46%

Sabalenka made 16 aces (5.3 per match). Williams managed to score 19 aces (6.3 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Williams won 80% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Sabalenka Williams
Won 15 15
Converted 15/27 15/26
% Converted 56% 58%
Conceded 12 16
Saved 7 12
% Saved 58% 75%
Times Broken 5 4

Sabalenka broke her opponents 15 times with a 56% conversion rate. The Belarussian conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded. Williams broke her opponents 15 times with a 58% conversion rate. Serena conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
R1
Kuzmova
R2
Kasatkina
R3
Li
Total
Score 6-0 6-4 7-65 6-3 6-3 6-1
Tot Set 2 2 2 6
Tot Games 16 22 16 54
pts 60-38 67-63 67-44 194-145
Total points 98 130 111 339
Winners 16 24 28 68
%Winners 27% 36% 42% 35%
SERVE
Aces 2 7 7 16
Double Faults 3 6 4 13
1st in 21/43 37/65 36/54 94/162
% 1st in 49% 57% 67% 58%
1st pts 16/21 24/37 28/36 68/94
% 1st pts 76% 65% 78% 72%
2nd pts 12/22 13/28 10/18 35/68
% 2nd pts 55% 46% 56% 51%
Breaks
Won 6 5 4 15
Converted 6/10 5/7 4/10 15/27
Converted % 60% 71% 40% 56%
Conceded 4 4 4 12
Saved 2/4 1/4 4/4 7
Saved % 50% 25% 100% 58%
Times Broken 2 3 0 5
Williams
R1
Siegemund
R2
Stojanovic
R3
Potapova
Total
Score 6-1 6-1 6-3 6-0 7-65 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 2 6
Tot Games 14 15 21 50
pts 54-23 61-38 78-63 193-124
Total points 77 99 141 317
Winners 16 24 36 76
%Winners 30% 39% 46% 39%
SERVE
Aces 4 6 9 19
Double Faults 1 1 4 6
1st in 20/34 28/49 47/75 95/158
% 1st in 59% 57% 63% 60%
1st pts 16/20 24/28 36/47 76/95
% 1st pts 80% 86% 77% 80%
2nd pts 9/14 11/21 9/28 29/63
% 2nd pts 64% 52% 32% 46%
Breaks
Won 6 4 5 15
Converted 6/9 4/9 5/8 15/26
Converted % 67% 44% 63% 58%
Conceded 1 3 12 16
Saved 0/1 3/3 9/12 12
Saved % 0% 100% 75% 58%
Times Broken 1 0 3 4

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Sabalenka
LLWWWWWWWL
Williams
2024 2023 2022
56 - 14
0 - 0
38-7
Hard
0-0
2-2
I Hard
0-0
15-4
Clay
0-0
1-1
Grass
0-0

Tennis Scores at the Australian Open

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Upcoming matches in the draw