Roger had a very strange start of the season. The Swiss Maestro has been playing really well, maybe the best tennis we have seen so far, but strange enough he has not been able to win any tournament to have quite disappointing results.
Wonderful tennis, horrible results
In Melbourne he had a fantastic tournament to overcome an horrible draw till the semifinal when he lost to Murray in 5 sets. In Rotterdam he was upset by Benetteau in the quarters. In Dubai he lost to Berdych in the semis after squandering 3 match points. In Indian Wells he played a wonderful tennis to get injured in the 3rth round and succumb to Rafa in he quarters without being able to put a fight. The results? He is about to lose his world no.2 status… ok.. maybe not yet.
Ranking after Miami…
Roger was “lucky” that Murray stopped in the quarter in Indian Wells. So from Monday Roger will have 8.715 points and Murray 8.350.
Since Federer will not play in Miami he will then lose only 45 points as last year he was upset by Roddick in the round of 32. So Roger will have 8.670 points. Andy has to defend 600pts in Miami (as he was the 2012 finalist) and so the only way to become wolrd no.2 after Miami is to win the tournament (he would have 8350-600+1000 = 8750 pts).
… then bye bye to world no.2
Andy should get the 2nd spot in the ranking before the Roland Garros, maybe just after Montecarlo.
In fact, the Scott had a very lousy 2012 clay court season to have only 360 pts to defend in 4 tournaments (Montecarlo, Barcelona, Madrid and Rome) and only 360pts at the Roland Garros.
Conversely, Roger has to defend 1360pts from last year in the pre-French Open tournaments (he won Madrid and reached the semis in Rome) and 720pts from reaching the semis in Paris.
Changing Schedules
Being seeded no.2 for the Roland Garros would be very important for the Maestro as he may have 50% chances that Djokovic and Nadal will fall in the other part of the draw. This will be much more unluckily if he is seeded no.3 or 4.
Roger may try to review his schedules to play in Montecarlo to try to defend his 2nd place, but that seems not very plausible.
