Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno-Busta will face off in the quarter of the U.S. Open for the 5th time of their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 9 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and the prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Denis Shapovalov who should win in 5 sets.
As per the initial odds, Denis Shapovalov is the pick to win this match.
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.52
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 2.46
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Prediction and head to head Denis Shapovalov vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta
This will be the 5th time that Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno-Busta clash against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Carreno-Busta (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
Denis Shapovalov
Ranked no. 17, Denis got to the quarter after defeating Sebastian Korda 6-4 4-6 6-3 6-2, Soon-Woo Kwon 6-75 6-4 6-4 6-2, Taylor Harry Fritz 3-6 6-3 4-6 7-65 6-2 and David Goffin 6-70 6-3 6-4 6-3.
In the 4th round against Goffin, The Canadian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-70 6-3 6-4 6-3). During the match Shapovalov scored 153 points vs Goffin’s 134. Denis was very aggressive to blast 63 winners.
Talking about the service games, Shapovalov bagged 13 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Overall, Denis Shapovalov was very effective on serve to win 76% (63/83) of his 1st serve and 53% (25/47) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Shapovalov broke Goffin 5 times after converting 31% of his break points (5/16).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Canadian has conceded 5 set in this tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Shapovalov has a solid win-loss record in the last 6 years having won 64% of his matches (206-117). 8-5 on hard in 2020. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Shapovalov has a 88-51 win-loss record in the last 6 years on hard.
The Canadian has a 9-8 win-loss record in 2020, 8-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Last year at the U.S. Open
Shapovalov lost in the 3rd round to Gael Monfils.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
Ranked no. 27, the Spaniard got to the quarter after defeating Yasutaka Uchiyama 4-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-3, Mitchell Krueger 6-1 6-2 6-2, Richard Berankis 6-4 6-3 6-2 and Novak Djokovic 6-5 def..
In the 4th round, Pablo had a good straight sets win against Djokovic (6-5 def.). During the match Carreno-Busta and Djokovic scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 17 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match.
Talking about serving, Carreno-Busta was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Pablo Carreno-Busta conceded no breaks for the entire match to put NAN% of his first serves in, win NAN% (/) of the points behind his 1st serve and NAN% (/) on the 2nd serve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBb8vBCWwLg
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
Pablo’s best result of the current year was getting to the semi-finals in Rotterdam.
The Spaniard has a 11-6 win-loss record in 2020, 8-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Last year at the U.S. Open
Carreno-Busta capitulated in the 3rd round to David Goffin.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Shapovalov | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 17 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 168 | 105 |
| Pts | 573-503 | 325-259 |
| Total Points | 1076 | 584 |
| Winners | 252 | 136 |
| %Winners | 44% | 42% |
Both Shapovalov and Carreno-Busta played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Denis Shapovalov conceded 5 sets, while Pablo Carreno-Busta dropper 2 sets. Shapovalov has played 4 sets more than Carreno-Busta (17 vs 13). Therefore, Shapovalov played 63 games more than Carreno-Busta. The Canadian scored 252 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard struck 136 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Shapovalov | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 68 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 17 | 2.8 |
| 1st in | 322/503 | 183/278 |
| %1st in | 64% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 252/322 | 136/183 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 96/181 | 55/95 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 58% |
Shapovalov managed to score 68 aces (17 per match). Carreno-Busta managed to score 11 aces (2.8 per match). Shapovalov won 78% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Shapovalov | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 20 | 18 |
| Converted | 20/48 | 18/45 |
| % Converted | 42% | 40% |
| Conceded | 31 | 18 |
| Saved | 23 | 12 |
| % Saved | 74% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 6 |
Denis broke his opponents 20 times with a 42% conversion rate. Denis lost his serve 8 times and he saved 74% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 18 times with a 40% conversion rate. Carreno-Busta conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| Shapovalov | ||||||
| R1 Korda |
R2 Kwon |
R3 Fritz |
R4 Goffin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 4-6 6-3 6-2 | 6-75 6-4 6-4 6-2 | 3-6 6-3 4-6 7-65 6-2 | 6-70 6-3 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | |
| Tot Games | 37 | 41 | 49 | 41 | 168 | |
| pts | 132-107 | 138-119 | 150-143 | 153-134 | 573-503 | |
| Total points | 239 | 257 | 293 | 287 | 1076 | |
| Winners | 53 | 58 | 78 | 63 | 252 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 42% | 52% | 41% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 13 | 20 | 22 | 13 | 68 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 25 | |
| 1st in | 64/100 | 73/123 | 102/150 | 83/130 | 322/503 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 59% | 68% | 64% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 53/64 | 58/73 | 78/102 | 63/83 | 252/322 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 79% | 76% | 76% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/36 | 27/50 | 23/48 | 25/47 | 96/181 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 54% | 48% | 53% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 20 | |
| Converted | 4/14 | 5/9 | 6/9 | 5/16 | 20/48 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 56% | 67% | 31% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 31 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 6/7 | 10/15 | 6/7 | 23 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 86% | 67% | 86% | 72% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 | |
| Carreno-Busta | ||||||
| R1 Uchiyama |
R2 Krueger |
R3 Berankis |
R4 Djokovic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-3 | 6-1 6-2 6-2 | 6-4 6-3 6-2 | 6-5 def. | ||
| Tot Set | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 44 | 23 | 27 | 11 | 105 | |
| pts | 149-148 | 82-42 | 94-69 | – | 325-259 | |
| Total points | 297 | 124 | 163 | 0 | 584 | |
| Winners | 69 | 30 | 37 | 136 | ||
| %Winners | 46% | 37% | 39% | NAN% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | ||
| 1st in | 96/149 | 36/52 | 51/77 | / | 183/278 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 69% | 66% | NAN% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 69/96 | 30/36 | 37/51 | / | 136/183 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 83% | 73% | NAN% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 26/53 | 14/16 | 15/26 | / | 55/95 | |
| % 2nd pts | 49% | 88% | 58% | NAN% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 7 | 7 | 18 | ||
| Converted | 4/16 | 7/11 | 7/18 | / | 18/45 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 64% | 39% | NAN% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 0 | 6 | 18 | ||
| Saved | 9/12 | 0/0 | 3/6 | 0/ | 12 | |
| Saved % | 75% | – | 50% | – | 31% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | ||
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWWLW
LWLLLWLLWW Tennis Scores at the U.S. Open
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Corentin MoutetMoutet (6-1 6-0 6-4) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Jeff WolfWolf (6-3 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (6-2 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Vasek PospisilPospisil – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (7-5 2-6 4-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-4 0-6 4-6 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Salvatore CarusoCaruso (6-0 6-4 6-0) – See score progression
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Casper RuudRuud (6-4 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Dominic ThiemThiem – Marin CilicCilic (6-2 6-2 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Richard BerankisBerankis (6-4 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (6-3 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Cameron NorrieNorrie (7-62 4-6 6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Jordan ThompsonThompson – Mikhail KukushkinKukushkin (7-5 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- David GoffinGoffin – Filip KrajinovicKrajinovic (6-1 7-65 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (6-74 6-4 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Borna CoricCoric – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (6-72 6-4 4-6 7-5 7-64) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (3-6 6-3 4-6 7-65 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Borna CoricCoric – Alexander ZverevZverev (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Andrey RublevRublev – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Dominic ThiemThiem (0-2) – H2H and prediction
