Jacob Fearnley and Luca Nardi will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Olbia Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 5:30 pm on Court 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jacob Fearnley who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jacob Fearnley is the pick to win this match.
Jacob Fearnley -> 1.48
Luca Nardi -> 2.43
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Jacob Fearnley vs. Luca Nardi
This will be the 2nd time that Jacob Fearnley and Luca Nardi face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Fearnley (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Fearnley won 4-6 6-0 6-3 in the 1st round in the Ilkley Challenger back in June 2026.
Highlights Jacob Fearnley vs Luca Nardi – Ilkley Challenger 10-June-2026
Jacob Fearnley
33 - 24win/loss
96
49
WWWLWLWLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33-24 | 19-15 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 11-4 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 33-27 | 11-10 | 10-6 | 9-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-9 | 10-2 | 0-0 | 26-4 | 9-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 17-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 16-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 96, Jacob got to the semifinal after defeating George Loffhagen 6-1 6-3, Jan Kumstat 6-4 6-3 and Maxim Mrva 6-0 7-6(4).
In the quarter, The Brit had a good straight sets win against Mrva (6-0 7-64). During the match, Fearnley scored 71 points vs Mrva’s 45. Jacob was quite aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Regarding the service games, Fearnley scored just 1 ace and he was extremely consistent in conceding no double faults. Overall, Jacob Fearnley was pretty efficient on serve to win 76% (29/38) of his 1st serve and 75% (15/20) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Brit broke Mrva 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Brit hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to conquer 60% of the points he played.
ATP Olbia Challenger - Jacob Fearnley's projected path
Fearnley has a solid win-loss record in the last 6 years having won 67% of his matches (139-70). 19-15 on hard in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Fearnley has an overall50-31 record in the last 6 years on hard.
His best result of the current year was winning the title the Newport Challenger where he beat Adam Walton in the final 5-7 7-6(8) 6-4.
The Brit has an overall 33-24 win-loss record in 2026, 19-15 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Olbia Challenger
The Brit has never competed in this tournament before.
Luca Nardi
17 - 19win/loss
251
67
WWWLLLLWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17-19 | 8-9 | 3-5 | 3-2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 30-30 | 14-13 | 8-9 | 8-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 32-27 | 14-14 | 8-5 | 9-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-36 | 20-10 | 8-13 | 12-12 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-20 | 5-2 | 11-10 | 17-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 251, Nardi got to the semifinal after defeating August Holmgren 4-6 6-4 6-4, Lorenzo Carboni 6-4 6-1 and Michael Mmoh 6-4 6-4.
In the quarter, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Mmoh (6-4 6-4). During the match Nardi scored 71 points vs Mmoh’s 64. Luca was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.
About the serving games, Nardi fired 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Luca Nardi lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Nardi put 56% of his first serves in, winning 79% (30/38) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (14/30) on the 2nd serve. Nardi broke Mmoh 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
ATP Olbia Challenger - Luca Nardi's projected path
Luca’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in the Manama Challenger.
The Italian has an overall 17-19 win-loss record in 2026, 8-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Fearnley | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 54 | 67 |
| Pts | 208-141 | 236-201 |
| Total Points | 349 | 437 |
| Winners | 84 | 102 |
| %Winners | 40% | 43% |
Both Fearnley and Nardi played 3 matches. At the moment, Luca Nardi surrendered 1 set while Jacob Fearnley hasn’t lost a set so far. Fearnley has played 1 set(s) less than Nardi (6 vs 7). Therefore, Fearnley played 13 games less than Nardi. Jacob scored 84 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Luca managed to score 102 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Fearnley | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 3.7 |
| 1st in | 106/155 | 135/215 |
| %1st in | 68% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 84/106 | 102/135 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 30/49 | 41/80 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 51% |
Fearnley fired 9 aces (3 per match). Nardi recorded 11 aces (3.7 per match). Fearnley won 79% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Nardi won 76% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Fearnley | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 13 | 11 |
| Converted | 13/25 | 11/26 |
| % Converted | 52% | 42% |
| Conceded | 9 | 18 |
| Saved | 6 | 14 |
| % Saved | 67% | 78% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 4 |
The Brit broke his opponents 13 times with a 52% conversion rate. Jacob conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Luca broke his opponents 11 times with a 42% conversion rate. Luca conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded.
| Fearnley | |||||
| R1 Loffhagen |
R2 Kumstat |
1/4 Mrva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 6-4 6-3 | 6-0 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 19 | 19 | 54 | |
| pts | 66-43 | 71-53 | 71-45 | 208-141 | |
| Total points | 109 | 124 | 116 | 349 | |
| Winners | 27 | 28 | 29 | 84 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 39% | 41% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 36/51 | 32/46 | 38/58 | 106/155 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 70% | 66% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 27/36 | 28/32 | 29/38 | 84/106 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 88% | 76% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/15 | 6/14 | 15/20 | 30/49 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 43% | 75% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 13 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 4/9 | 4/6 | 13/25 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 44% | 67% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 67% | 50% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nardi | |||||
| R1 Holmgren |
R2 Carboni |
1/4 Mmoh |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-4 6-4 | 6-4 6-1 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 17 | 20 | 67 | |
| pts | 98-92 | 67-45 | 71-64 | 236-201 | |
| Total points | 190 | 112 | 135 | 437 | |
| Winners | 54 | 18 | 30 | 102 | |
| %Winners | 55% | 27% | 42% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 72/103 | 25/44 | 38/68 | 135/215 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 57% | 56% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 54/72 | 18/25 | 30/38 | 102/135 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 72% | 79% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/31 | 14/19 | 14/30 | 41/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 74% | 47% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 5/14 | 3/8 | 11/26 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 36% | 38% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 6 | 3 | 18 | |
| Saved | 7/9 | 5/6 | 2/3 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 78% | 83% | 67% | 76% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Olbia Challenger
- Daniel Cukierman/Fernando RomboliCukierman/Fernando Romboli – Daniel Masur/Tim RuehlMasur/Tim Ruehl (7-64 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jacob FearnleyFearnley – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
