Matej Dodig and Elmer Moller will clash against each other in the final of the Braga Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 11:00 am on Centre Court. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matej Dodig who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Matej Dodig is the pick to win this match.
Matej Dodig -> 1.5
Elmer Moller -> 2.375
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Matej Dodig vs. Elmer Moller
This will be the 3rd time that Matej Dodig and Elmer Moller face off. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Moller won 6-4 7-6(3) in the Rubber 1 in 1 back in February 2026.
Matej Dodig
35 - 20win/loss
174
171
WWWWLLWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35-20 | 0-4 | 29-11 | 5-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 36-32 | 0-0 | 24-22 | 12-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-26 | 14-5 | 30-20 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-16 | 1-2 | 38-12 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
Ranked no. 174, Matej got to the final after defeating Andrea Pellegrino 6-3 3-6 6-1, Miguel Damas 6-4 6-1, Marvin Moeller 6-2 6-3 and Lukas Neumayer 6-3 6-1.
In the semifinal, Dodig had a good straight sets win against Neumayer (6-3 6-1). During the match, Dodig scored 60 points vs Neumayer’s 36. Dodig was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Dodig struck 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Matej Dodig was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 81% (25/31) of his 1st serve and 60% (9/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Croatian broke Neumayer 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Dodig has lost 1 set in this tournament to conquer 58% of the points he played.
ATP Braga Challenger - Matej Dodig's projected path
Dodig has a solid win-loss record in the last 4 years having won 63% of his matches (160-94). 29-11 on clay in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Dodig has an aggregate121-65 win-loss record in the last 4 years on clay.
His best result of the current year was winning the title the Como Challenger where he defeated Juan Pablo Varillas in the final 6-3 7-6(5).
The Croatian has an overall 35-20 win-loss record in 2026, 29-11 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Braga Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2024. See his history.
Elmer Moller
23 - 24win/loss
181
102
WWWWLWLLLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23-24 | 2-5 | 19-16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 34-26 | 0-6 | 31-17 | 3-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 62-26 | 5-3 | 52-21 | 5-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 48-21 | 14-11 | 31-8 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 26-15 | 10-5 | 12-7 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 181, Elmer got to the final after defeating Thiago Moura Monteiro 7-6(0) 5-7 6-4, Zsombor Piros 1-6 6-1 7-5, Tiago Pereira 5-7 6-2 6-1 and Vilius Gaubas 6-2 4-6 6-4.
In the semifinal, Elmer defeated Gaubas (6-2 4-6 6-4). During the match Moller scored 104 points vs Gaubas’s 91. Elmer was exceptionally aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Talking about serving, Moller couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 5 double faults. Elmer Moller lost the serve 3 times and he saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Moller put 66% of his first serves in, winning 66% (40/61) of the points behind his 1st serve and 52% (16/31) on the 2nd serve. Moller broke Gaubas 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Elmer has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
ATP Braga Challenger - Elmer Moller's projected path
Elmer’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in the Braga Challenger.
Moller has a composed 23-24 win-loss record in 2026, 19-16 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Braga Challenger
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Dodig | Moller |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 12 |
| Tot Games | 75 | 116 |
| Pts | 281-206 | 436-376 |
| Total Points | 487 | 812 |
| Winners | 111 | 142 |
| %Winners | 40% | 33% |
Both Dodig and Moller played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Matej Dodig conceded 1 set, while Elmer Moller dropped 4 sets. Dodig has played 3 set(s) less than Moller (9 vs 12). Therefore, Dodig played 41 games less than Moller. Dodig scored 111 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Dane managed to score 142 winners (33%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Dodig | Moller |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 146/222 | 227/355 |
| %1st in | 66% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 111/146 | 142/227 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 63% |
| 2nd pts | 43/76 | 63/128 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 49% |
Dodig fired 14 aces (3.5 per match). Moller fired 10 aces (2.5 per match). Dodig won 76% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Moller won 63% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Dodig | Moller |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 28 |
| Converted | 17/39 | 28/61 |
| % Converted | 44% | 46% |
| Conceded | 10 | 50 |
| Saved | 7 | 29 |
| % Saved | 70% | 58% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 21 |
Dodig broke his opponents 17 times with a 44% conversion rate. Matej dropped his serve 3 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded. The Dane broke his opponents 28 times with a 46% conversion rate. The Dane conceded his serve 21 times and he saved 58% of the break points that he conceded.
| Dodig | ||||||
| R1 Pellegrino |
R2 Damas |
1/4 Moeller |
1/2 Neumayer |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 3-6 6-1 | 6-4 6-1 | 6-2 6-3 | 6-3 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 75 | |
| pts | 81-65 | 77-58 | 63-47 | 60-36 | 281-206 | |
| Total points | 146 | 135 | 110 | 96 | 487 | |
| Winners | 32 | 25 | 29 | 25 | 111 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 32% | 46% | 42% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 41/71 | 39/54 | 35/51 | 31/46 | 146/222 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 72% | 69% | 67% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 32/41 | 25/39 | 29/35 | 25/31 | 111/146 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 64% | 83% | 81% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/30 | 7/15 | 7/16 | 9/15 | 43/76 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 47% | 44% | 60% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 6/17 | 4/6 | 4/9 | 17/39 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 35% | 67% | 44% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 1/3 | 4/4 | 0/0 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 33% | 100% | – | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Moller | ||||||
| R1 Moura Monteiro |
R2 Piros |
1/4 Pereira |
1/2 Gaubas |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-60 5-7 6-4 | 1-6 6-1 7-5 | 5-7 6-2 6-1 | 6-2 4-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 35 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 116 | |
| pts | 129-115 | 91-80 | 112-90 | 104-91 | 436-376 | |
| Total points | 244 | 171 | 202 | 195 | 812 | |
| Winners | 38 | 29 | 35 | 40 | 142 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 32% | 31% | 38% | 33% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 22 | |
| 1st in | 58/104 | 53/79 | 55/80 | 61/92 | 227/355 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 67% | 69% | 66% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 38/58 | 29/53 | 35/55 | 40/61 | 142/227 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 55% | 64% | 66% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 26/46 | 11/26 | 10/25 | 16/31 | 63/128 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 42% | 40% | 52% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 28 | |
| Converted | 6/18 | 8/14 | 9/19 | 5/10 | 28/61 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 57% | 47% | 50% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 14 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 50 | |
| Saved | 8/14 | 5/12 | 6/11 | 10/13 | 29 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 42% | 55% | 77% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 21 | |
Head 2 Head
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