Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev will fight against each other in the quarter of the China Open for the 9th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:30 pm on Court 3. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.76
Andrey Rublev -> 2.05
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Andrey Rublev
This will be the 9th time that Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev play each other. The head to head is 4-4 (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Rublev won 6-1 3-6 7-6(8) in the quarter in Doha back in 2025.
Highlights Andrey Rublev vs Alex De Minaur – Doha 20-February-2025
Alex De Minaur
38 - 18win/loss
9
5
LWWWWWWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40-19 | 19-10 | 7-6 | 6-0 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 56-24 | 30-11 | 10-5 | 13-6 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, Alex got to the quarter after defeating Mariano Navone 7-6(4) 6-2 and Quentin Halys 3-6 7-6(5) 7-5.
In the 2nd round against Halys, De Minaur recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-65 7-5). During the match, De Minaur and Halys scored the same amount of points (111). However, the world no. 10 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. The Australian was quite aggressive to blast 47 winners.
Talking about the service games, De Minaur made 10 aces and he was extremely steady in conceding no double faults. Alex De Minaur lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, De Minaur put 64% of his first serves in, winning 68% (47/69) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (21/38) on the 2nd serve. Alex broke Halys 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alex has dropped 1 set in this tournament to conquer 53% of the points he played.
ATP Beijing - Alex De Minaur's projected path
De Minaur has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (401-227). 17-9 on hard in 2026. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, De Minaur has a compiled 197-97 record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Rotterdam where he beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final 6-3 6-2.
De Minaur has a composed 38-18 win-loss record in 2026, 17-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2025. See his history.
Andrey Rublev
33 - 18win/loss
23
5
LWWLWWWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33-19 | 17-11 | 16-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 34-25 | 16-13 | 8-6 | 6-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-26 | 26-11 | 11-6 | 6-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-26 | 23-12 | 19-5 | 6-7 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-20 | 19-7 | 14-6 | 18-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 24, Rublev reached the quarter after defeating Tallon Griekspoor 6-4 5-7 7-6(6) and Roman Safiullin 6-2 3-6 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The Russian defeated Safiullin (6-2 3-6 6-4). During the match Rublev scored 91 points vs Safiullin’s 81. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 41 winners.
About the serving games, Rublev blasted 12 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Andrey Rublev lost the serve once. Furthermore, Rublev put 72% of his first serves in, winning 77% (41/53) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (10/21) on the 2nd serve. Rublev broke Safiullin 3 times after converting 25% of his break points (3/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rublev has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
ATP Beijing - Andrey Rublev's projected path
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Bastad where he beat Luciano Darderi in the final 6-4 6-3.
The Russian has an aggregate 33-18 win-loss record in 2026, 17-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2017 and 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 55 | 62 |
| Pts | 191-172 | 200-188 |
| Total Points | 363 | 388 |
| Winners | 78 | 100 |
| %Winners | 41% | 50% |
Both De Minaur and Rublev played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alex De Minaur surrendered 1 set, while Andrey Rublev lost 2 sets. De Minaur has played 1 set(s) less than Rublev (5 vs 6). Therefore, De Minaur played 7 games less than Rublev. The Australian scored 78 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Rublev fired 100 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 16 | 31 |
| Avg per match | 8 | 15.5 |
| 1st in | 113/181 | 126/187 |
| %1st in | 62% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 78/113 | 100/126 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 40/68 | 31/61 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 51% |
De Minaur managed to score 16 aces (8 per match). Rublev bagged 31 aces (15.5 per match). De Minaur won 69% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Rublev won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 4 |
| Converted | 6/14 | 4/18 |
| % Converted | 43% | 22% |
| Conceded | 16 | 6 |
| Saved | 12 | 4 |
| % Saved | 75% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 |
The Australian broke his opponents 6 times with a 43% conversion rate. Alex dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Andrey broke his opponents 4 times with a 22% conversion rate. The Russian conceded his serve twice and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | ||||
| R1 Navone |
R2 Halys |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 6-2 | 3-6 7-65 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 34 | 55 | |
| pts | 80-61 | 111-111 | 191-172 | |
| Total points | 141 | 222 | 363 | |
| Winners | 31 | 47 | 78 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 42% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 10 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 44/74 | 69/107 | 113/181 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 64% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 31/44 | 47/69 | 78/113 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 68% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/30 | 21/38 | 40/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 55% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 3/7 | 6/14 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 43% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 6 | 16 | |
| Saved | 9/10 | 3/6 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 90% | 50% | 70% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Rublev | ||||
| R1 Griekspoor |
R2 Safiullin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 5-7 7-66 | 6-2 3-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 35 | 27 | 62 | |
| pts | 109-107 | 91-81 | 200-188 | |
| Total points | 216 | 172 | 388 | |
| Winners | 59 | 41 | 100 | |
| %Winners | 54% | 45% | 50% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 19 | 12 | 31 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 73/113 | 53/74 | 126/187 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 72% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 59/73 | 41/53 | 100/126 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 77% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/40 | 10/21 | 31/61 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 48% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Converted | 1/6 | 3/12 | 4/18 | |
| Converted % | 17% | 25% | 22% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 0/1 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 0% | 40% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Beijing
- Alexander Bublik/Juncheng ShangBublik/Juncheng Shang – Maximo Gonzalez/Andres MolteniGonzalez/Andres Molteni (7-5 4-6 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (9-3) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Andrey RublevRublev (4-4) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – (2-0) – H2H and prediction
