Lui Maxted and Luca Potenza will play each other in the qualifications of the Porto Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 1:30 pm on Court 3. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Lui Maxted who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Lui Maxted is the pick to win this match.
Lui Maxted -> 1.57
Luca Potenza -> 2.22
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Lui Maxted vs. Luca Potenza
This will be the 2nd time that Lui Maxted and Luca Potenza play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Potenza (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Potenza won 6-2 6-2 in the qualifications in M15 Sharm El Sheikh back in 2021.
Lui Maxted
30 - 19win/loss
394
360
WLWWLWWLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30-19 | 24-14 | 0-0 | 5-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 27-10 | 21-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 17-8 | 13-6 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 4-4 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 394, Lui got to the qualifications after defeating Francisco Rocha 4-6 6-3 6-1.
In the qualifications against Rocha, The Brit recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-1). During the match, Maxted scored 91 points vs Rocha’s 72. Maxted was quite aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Regarding the service games, Maxted scored just 1 ace during the encounter and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Lui Maxted was pretty efficient on serve to win 75% (39/52) of his 1st serve and 56% (9/16) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Maxted broke Rocha 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Maxted has a solid win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 62% of his matches (83-50). 24-14 on hard in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Maxted has a compiled64-32 match record in the last 7 years on hard.
The Brit’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in M25 Glasgow and M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio.
Maxted has an overall 30-19 win-loss record in 2026, 24-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Porto Challenger
The Brit has never competed in this tournament before.
Luca Potenza
22 - 22win/loss
538
357
WLLLWWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22-22 | 10-9 | 11-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 58-33 | 53-27 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 26-17 | 14-7 | 12-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 20-28 | 6-9 | 13-18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 26-26 | 10-9 | 13-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 538, Potenza got to the qualifications after beating Ivan Marrero Curbelo 6-4 4-6 6-3.
In the qualifications, The Italian defeated Marrero Curbelo (6-4 4-6 6-3). During the match Potenza scored 100 points vs Marrero Curbelo’s 95. The Italian was extremely aggressive to blast 49 winners.
Talking about serving, Potenza recorded 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Luca Potenza lost the serve 5 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Potenza put 67% of his first serves in, winning 66% (49/74) of the points behind his 1st serve and 35% (13/37) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Marrero Curbelo 6 times after converting 67% of his break points (6/9).
Potenza’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in M25 Caltanissetta.
The Italian has a composed 22-22 win-loss record in 2026, 10-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Porto Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Maxted | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 26 | 29 |
| Pts | 91-72 | 100-95 |
| Total Points | 163 | 195 |
| Winners | 39 | 49 |
| %Winners | 43% | 49% |
Both Maxted and Potenza played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players lost a set in the event. Lui Maxted dropped 1 set, while Luca Potenza surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Maxted and Potenza have played the same amount of sets 3. However, Maxted played 3 games less than Potenza. Maxted scored 39 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Luca blasted 49 winners (49%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Maxted | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 3 |
| 1st in | 52/68 | 74/111 |
| %1st in | 76% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 39/52 | 49/74 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 9/16 | 13/37 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 35% |
Maxted recorded 1 ace . Potenza also managed to score 3 aces . Maxted won 75% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Potenza won 66% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 35% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Maxted | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 6 |
| Converted | 5/10 | 6/9 |
| % Converted | 50% | 67% |
| Conceded | 2 | 12 |
| Saved | 0 | 7 |
| % Saved | 0% | 58% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 5 |
The Brit broke his opponent 5 times with a 50% conversion rate. Lui lost his serve twice and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponent 6 times with a 67% conversion rate. Potenza conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 58% of the break points that he conceded.
| Maxted | |||
| Q1 Rocha |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | |
| pts | 91-72 | 91-72 | |
| Total points | 163 | 163 | |
| Winners | 39 | 39 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 52/68 | 52/68 | |
| % 1st in | 76% | 76% | |
| 1st pts | 39/52 | 39/52 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/16 | 9/16 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 5/10 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Potenza | |||
| Q1 Marrero |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 4-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 29 | |
| pts | 100-95 | 100-95 | |
| Total points | 195 | 195 | |
| Winners | 49 | 49 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 49% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 74/111 | 74/111 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 49/74 | 49/74 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/37 | 13/37 | |
| % 2nd pts | 35% | 35% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 6/9 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 67% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 12 | |
| Saved | 7/12 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 58% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW 
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