Paula Badosa and Nadia Podoroska will face off in the semifinal of the SP Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 2:00 pm on Court 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Paula Badosa who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Paula Badosa is the pick to win this match.
Paula Badosa -> 1.196
Nadia Podoroska -> 4.55
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Paula Badosa vs. Nadia Podoroska
This will be the 3rd time that Paula Badosa and Nadia Podoroska face off. The head to head is 2-0 for Badosa (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Badosa won 6-2 6-3 in the 3rd round in Tokyo back in 2021.
Paula Badosa
26 - 19win/loss
59
2
LWLWWWLWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27-20 | 12-11 | 13-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 18-13 | 13-8 | 3-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-19 | 26-11 | 6-5 | 0-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 18-9 | 6-4 | 11-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 32-22 | 20-13 | 8-5 | 1-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 70, Paula got to the semifinal after defeating Justina Mikulskyte 6-3 6-2, Jazmin Ortenzi 4-6 6-2 6-2 and Mary Stoiana 6-4 6-2.
In the quarter, Badosa had a good straight sets win against Stoiana (6-4 6-2). During the match, Badosa scored 72 points vs Stoiana’s 51. Paula was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Regarding the service games, Badosa managed to score 4 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Paula Badosa lost the serve twice and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Badosa put 56% of her first serves in, winning 79% (26/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 38% (10/26) on the 2nd serve. Paula broke Stoiana 5 times after converting 50% of her break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has conceded 1 set in this event to win 57% of the points she played.
WTA Sao Paulo - Paula Badosa's projected path
Badosa has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of her matches (322-184). 11-9 on hard in 2026. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Badosa has a compiled 139-82 record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title the Bastad where she beat Simona Waltert in the final 7-5 7-5.
The Spaniard has an overall 26-18 win-loss record in 2026, 11-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Sao Paulo
The Spaniard has never competed in this tournament before.
Nadia Podoroska
30 - 10win/loss
204
36
LWWWWLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30-11 | 17-4 | 13-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 27-29 | 17-14 | 10-11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-33 | 13-13 | 24-14 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-15 | 7-6 | 13-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 317, the Argentine reached the semifinal after beating Lucrezia Stefanini 6-3 6-4, Eva Lys 7-5 6-2 and Suzan Lamens 7-6(5) 3-6 6-3.
In the quarter, Nadia defeated Lamens (7-65 3-6 6-3). During the match Podoroska scored 116 points vs Lamens’s 109. Podoroska was pretty aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Talking about serving, Podoroska scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 9 double faults. Nadia Podoroska lost the serve 5 times and she saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Podoroska put 63% of her first serves in, winning 64% (38/59) of the points behind her 1st serve and 49% (17/35) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Lamens 5 times after converting 33% of her break points (5/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Argentine has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
WTA Sao Paulo - Nadia Podoroska's projected path
Her best result of the current year was winning the title the W35 San Gregorio where she beat Lucciana Perez Alarcon in the final 2-6 6-4 7-6(5).
The Argentine has a composed 29-10 win-loss record in 2026, 16-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Badosa | Podoroska |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 61 | 70 |
| Pts | 229-171 | 265-223 |
| Total Points | 400 | 488 |
| Winners | 81 | 85 |
| %Winners | 35% | 32% |
Both Badosa and Podoroska played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Paula Badosa dropped 1 set, while Nadia Podoroska surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Badosa and Podoroska have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Badosa played 9 games less than Podoroska. Paula scored 81 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Podoroska scored 85 winners (32%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Badosa | Podoroska |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 1.3 |
| 1st in | 105/189 | 140/243 |
| %1st in | 56% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 81/105 | 85/140 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 61% |
| 2nd pts | 37/84 | 49/103 |
| %2nd pts | 44% | 48% |
Badosa bagged 6 aces (2 per match). Podoroska made 4 aces (1.3 per match). Badosa won 77% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 44% of the points. On the other side, Podoroska won 61% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Badosa | Podoroska |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 19 |
| Converted | 16/29 | 19/32 |
| % Converted | 55% | 59% |
| Conceded | 14 | 32 |
| Saved | 7 | 19 |
| % Saved | 50% | 59% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 13 |
Paula broke her opponents 16 times with a 55% conversion rate. The Spaniard lost her serve 7 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. The Argentine broke her opponents 19 times with a 59% conversion rate. The Argentine conceded her serve 13 times and she saved 59% of the break points that she conceded.
| Badosa | |||||
| R1 Mikulskyte |
R2 Ortenzi |
1/4 Stoiana |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 4-6 6-2 6-2 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 26 | 18 | 61 | |
| pts | 65-46 | 92-74 | 72-51 | 229-171 | |
| Total points | 111 | 166 | 123 | 400 | |
| Winners | 29 | 26 | 26 | 81 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 28% | 36% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20 | |
| 1st in | 34/58 | 38/72 | 33/59 | 105/189 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 53% | 56% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 29/34 | 26/38 | 26/33 | 81/105 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 68% | 79% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/24 | 17/34 | 10/26 | 37/84 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 50% | 38% | 44% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 7/13 | 5/10 | 16/29 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 54% | 50% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 1/5 | 3/5 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 20% | 60% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | |
| Podoroska | |||||
| R1 Stefanini |
R2 Lys |
1/4 Lamens |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 7-5 6-2 | 7-65 3-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 20 | 31 | 70 | |
| pts | 68-56 | 81-58 | 116-109 | 265-223 | |
| Total points | 124 | 139 | 225 | 488 | |
| Winners | 20 | 27 | 38 | 85 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 33% | 33% | 32% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 7 | 9 | 18 | |
| 1st in | 36/62 | 45/87 | 59/94 | 140/243 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 52% | 63% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 20/36 | 27/45 | 38/59 | 85/140 | |
| % 1st pts | 56% | 60% | 64% | 61% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/26 | 17/42 | 17/35 | 49/103 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 40% | 49% | 48% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 8 | 5 | 19 | |
| Converted | 6/7 | 8/10 | 5/15 | 19/32 | |
| Converted % | 86% | 80% | 33% | 59% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 14 | 13 | 32 | |
| Saved | 2/5 | 9/14 | 8/13 | 19 | |
| Saved % | 40% | 64% | 62% | 55% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Sao Paulo
- Nadia PodoroskaPodoroska – Suzan LamensLamens (7-65 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Gabriela Dabrowski/Luisa StefaniDabrowski/Luisa Stefani – Kaitlin Quevedo/Dominika SalkovaQuevedo/Dominika Salkova (w/o) – See score progression
- Anna BlinkovaBlinkova – Alina CharaevaCharaeva (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Paula BadosaBadosa – Mary StoianaStoiana (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Kaitlin QuevedoQuevedo – Teodora KostovicKostovic (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Anna BlinkovaBlinkova – Alina CharaevaCharaeva (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Nadia PodoroskaPodoroska – Suzan LamensLamens (7-6(5) 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Mary StoianaStoiana (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Nadia PodoroskaPodoroska – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (0-2) – H2H and prediction
