Elias Ymer and Luca Castelnuovo will face off in the 2nd round of the Guangzhou Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 3:30 pm on Court 5. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elias Ymer who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elias Ymer is the pick to win this match.
Elias Ymer -> 1.42
Luca Castelnuovo -> 2.61
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Elias Ymer vs. Luca Castelnuovo
There is no head to head record between Elias Ymer and Luca Castelnuovo since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Elias Ymer
18 - 20win/loss
192
105
LLWLLWWLLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20-24 | 12-16 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 36-32 | 12-8 | 16-20 | 7-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-32 | 7-15 | 6-9 | 8-7 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 42-41 | 10-13 | 24-17 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-32 | 12-11 | 20-15 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 197, Ymer reached the 2nd round after beating Semen Pankin 5-7 7-5 6-3.
In the 1st round against Pankin, Elias recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 7-5 6-3). During the match, Ymer scored 110 points vs Pankin’s 101. Elias was quite aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Regarding the service games, Ymer struck 12 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Elias Ymer lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Ymer put 61% of his first serves in, winning 70% (44/63) of the points behind his 1st serve and 66% (27/41) on the 2nd serve. The Swede broke Pankin 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Ymer has favorable record in the last 10 years having won 52% of his matches (308-282). 10-12 on hard in 2026. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Ymer has a composed 82-93 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Ymer has a compiled 18-20 win-loss record in 2026, 10-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger
Ymer has never competed in this tournament before.
Luca Castelnuovo
27 - 20win/loss
455
342
LLLWLWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27-23 | 20-16 | 1-4 | 5-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 43-23 | 32-18 | 3-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-21 | 25-20 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-23 | 22-15 | 4-3 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| 2022 | 9-16 | 8-7 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
Ranked no. 398, the Swiss got to the 2nd round after defeating Omar Jasika 6-7(6) 6-2 1-0 ret..
In the 1st round against Jasika, the Swiss had a free pass after Jasika retired on a 6-76 6-2 1-0 . scoreline.
Luca’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in M25 Maanshan.
The Swiss has an overall 27-20 win-loss record in 2026, 20-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2025. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ymer | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 33 | 22 |
| Pts | 110-101 | 81-68 |
| Total Points | 211 | 149 |
| Winners | 44 | 39 |
| %Winners | 40% | 48% |
Both Ymer and Castelnuovo played 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Elias Ymer dropped 1 set, while Luca Castelnuovo surrendered 1 set. Ymer has played 1 set(s) less than Castelnuovo (3 vs 4). However, it’s interesting to notice that Ymer played 11 games more than Castelnuovo. The Swede scored 44 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Swiss bagged 39 winners (48%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ymer | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 18 |
| Avg per match | 12 | 18 |
| 1st in | 63/104 | 46/79 |
| %1st in | 61% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 44/63 | 39/46 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 85% |
| 2nd pts | 27/41 | 14/33 |
| %2nd pts | 66% | 42% |
Ymer blasted 12 aces . Castelnuovo blasted 18 aces . Ymer won 70% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 66% of the points. On the other side, Castelnuovo won 85% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 42% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ymer | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 3 |
| Converted | 3/5 | 3/3 |
| % Converted | 60% | 100% |
| Conceded | 8 | 3 |
| Saved | 6 | 2 |
| % Saved | 75% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 |
Ymer broke his opponent 3 times with a 60% conversion rate. The Swede lost his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Castelnuovo broke his opponent 3 times with a 100% conversion rate. Castelnuovo conceded his serve once and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| Ymer | |||
| R1 Pankin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 33 | 33 | |
| pts | 110-101 | 110-101 | |
| Total points | 211 | 211 | |
| Winners | 44 | 44 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 12 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 63/104 | 63/104 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 44/63 | 44/63 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 27/41 | 27/41 | |
| % 2nd pts | 66% | 66% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 3/5 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 8 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Castelnuovo | |||
| R1 Jasika |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-76 6-2 1-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 22 | |
| pts | 81-68 | 81-68 | |
| Total points | 149 | 149 | |
| Winners | 39 | 39 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 48% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 18 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 46/79 | 46/79 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 39/46 | 39/46 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/33 | 14/33 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 42% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 3/3 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Guangzhou Challenger
- Pavel KotovKotov – Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki (7-64 6-1) – See score progression
- Luca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo – Omar JasikaJasika (6-76 6-2 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Petr Bar BiryukovBar Biryukov – Jesse DelaneyDelaney (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Fajing SunSun – Alexis GalarneauGalarneau (7-5 3-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Marat SharipovSharipov – Thomas FancuttFancutt (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Bernard TomicTomic – Yuta KikuchiKikuchi (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
- Alexandr BindaBinda – Aoran WangWang (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Jake DelaneyDelaney – Hikaru ShiraishiShiraishi (4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Elias YmerYmer – Semen PankinPankin (5-7 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Colin SinclairSinclair – Linang XiaoXiao (6-4 1-6 7-65) – See score progression
- Rio NoguchiNoguchi – Kaichi UchidaUchida (3-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Akira SantillanSantillan – Yaojie ZengZeng (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Pavel KotovKotov – Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki (7-6(4) 6-1) – See score progression
- Bernard TomicTomic – Yuta KikuchiKikuchi (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
- Jake DelaneyDelaney – Hikaru ShiraishiShiraishi (4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexandr BindaBinda – Aoran WangWang (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Fajing SunSun – Alexis GalarneauGalarneau (7-5 3-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Luca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo – Omar JasikaJasika (6-7(6) 6-2 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Marat SharipovSharipov – Thomas FancuttFancutt (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Petr Bar BiryukovBar Biryukov – Jesse DelaneyDelaney (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Bernard TomicTomic – Jake DelaneyDelaney (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elias YmerYmer – Luca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Colin SinclairSinclair – Rio NoguchiNoguchi (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Pavel KotovKotov – Akira SantillanSantillan (1-0) – H2H and prediction
