Ilya Ivashka and Luca Castelnuovo will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Shanghai Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 5:00 pm on Center Court. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ilya Ivashka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Ilya Ivashka is the pick to win this match.
Ilya Ivashka -> 1.52
Luca Castelnuovo -> 2.33
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Ilya Ivashka vs. Luca Castelnuovo
There is no head to head record between Ilya Ivashka and Luca Castelnuovo since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Ilya Ivashka
28 - 13win/loss
237
40
WWWWWLWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30-13 | 28-11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 14-10 | 13-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 12-24 | 5-12 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 23-24 | 8-6 | 5-7 | 6-8 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 393, Ilya got to the semifinal after defeating Yu Hsiou Hsu 6-3 6-3, Bernard Tomic 6-4 4-6 6-2 and Yi Zhou 6-3 6-3.
In the quarter, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Zhou (6-3 6-3). During the match, Ivashka scored 67 points vs Zhou’s 45. Ivashka was pretty aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about the service games, Ivashka struck 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Ilya Ivashka was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 85% (22/26) of his 1st serve and 78% (14/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Ilya broke Zhou 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 58% of the points he played.
ATP Shanghai Challenger - Ilya Ivashka's projected path
Ivashka has favorable win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 57% of his matches (248-187). 26-11 on hard in 2026. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Ivashka has an aggregate 123-86 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Ivashka’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in the Bengaluru 3 Challenger and the Pozoblanco Challenger.
The Belarussian has an aggregate 28-13 win-loss record in 2026, 26-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Shanghai Challenger
Ilya has never competed in this tournament before.
Luca Castelnuovo
26 - 19win/loss
455
342
LLLWLWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27-23 | 20-16 | 1-4 | 5-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 43-23 | 32-18 | 3-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-21 | 25-20 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-23 | 22-15 | 4-3 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| 2022 | 9-16 | 8-7 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
Ranked no. 461, the Swiss got to the semifinal after defeating Tsung-Hao Huang 6-4 6-2, Chun Hsin Tseng 3-6 7-6(7) 6-2, Tung-Lin Wu 7-5 6-4 and Ji Sung Nam 6-4 6-4.
In the quarter, Luca had a good straight sets win against Sung Nam (6-4 6-4). During the match Castelnuovo scored 67 points vs Sung Nam’s 48. Castelnuovo was extremely aggressive to blast 34 winners.
About the serving games, Castelnuovo recorded 17 aces and he was very steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Luca Castelnuovo was pretty effective on serve to win 76% (34/45) of his 1st serve and 62% (8/13) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Castelnuovo broke Sung Nam 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Castelnuovo started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
ATP Shanghai Challenger - Luca Castelnuovo's projected path
The Swiss’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in M25 Maanshan.
Luca has a composed 26-19 win-loss record in 2026, 19-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Shanghai Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2019. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ivashka | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 64 | 90 |
| Pts | 225-163 | 289-239 |
| Total Points | 388 | 528 |
| Winners | 82 | 149 |
| %Winners | 36% | 52% |
Ivashka played 3 matches while Castelnuovo competed in 4 matches. Castelnuovo started his run from the qualifications while Ivashka had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Ilya Ivashka lost 1 set, while Luca Castelnuovo dropped 1 set. Ivashka has played 2 set(s) less than Castelnuovo (7 vs 9). Therefore, Ivashka played 26 games less than Castelnuovo. The Belarussian scored 82 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Castelnuovo scored 149 winners (52%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ivashka | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 56 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 14 |
| 1st in | 99/163 | 176/251 |
| %1st in | 61% | 70% |
| 1st pts | 82/99 | 149/176 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 85% |
| 2nd pts | 46/64 | 38/75 |
| %2nd pts | 72% | 51% |
Ivashka fired 12 aces (4 per match). Castelnuovo made 56 aces (14 per match). Ivashka won 83% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 72% of the points. On the other side, Castelnuovo won 85% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ivashka | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 11 |
| Converted | 10/25 | 11/25 |
| % Converted | 40% | 44% |
| Conceded | 8 | 8 |
| Saved | 6 | 5 |
| % Saved | 75% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 |
Ivashka broke his opponents 10 times with a 40% conversion rate. Ivashka surrendered his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Castelnuovo broke his opponents 11 times with a 44% conversion rate. Castelnuovo conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.
| Ivashka | |||||
| R1 Hsiou |
R2 Tomic |
1/4 Zhou |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 4-6 6-2 | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 28 | 18 | 64 | |
| pts | 60-35 | 98-83 | 67-45 | 225-163 | |
| Total points | 95 | 181 | 112 | 388 | |
| Winners | 21 | 39 | 22 | 82 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 40% | 33% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 21/41 | 52/78 | 26/44 | 99/163 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 67% | 59% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 21/21 | 39/52 | 22/26 | 82/99 | |
| % 1st pts | 100% | 75% | 85% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/20 | 17/26 | 14/18 | 46/64 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 65% | 78% | 72% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 4/12 | 3/7 | 10/25 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 33% | 43% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 6/8 | 0/0 | 6 | |
| Saved % | – | 75% | – | 25% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Castelnuovo | ||||||
| Q3 Huang |
R1 Hsin |
R2 Wu |
1/4 Sung Nam |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | 3-6 7-67 6-2 | 7-5 6-4 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 30 | 22 | 20 | 90 | |
| pts | 57-41 | 96-95 | 69-55 | 67-48 | 289-239 | |
| Total points | 98 | 191 | 124 | 115 | 528 | |
| Winners | 29 | 50 | 36 | 34 | 149 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 52% | 52% | 51% | 52% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 12 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 56 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 31/48 | 62/93 | 38/52 | 45/58 | 176/251 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 67% | 73% | 78% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 29/31 | 50/62 | 36/38 | 34/45 | 149/176 | |
| % 1st pts | 94% | 81% | 95% | 76% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/17 | 13/31 | 8/14 | 8/13 | 38/75 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 42% | 57% | 62% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 3/7 | 2/7 | 3/6 | 11/25 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 43% | 29% | 50% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 3/4 | 5 | |
| Saved % | – | 50% | – | 75% | 42% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Shanghai Challenger
- Pavel KotovKotov – Alexis GalarneauGalarneau (3-6 6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Ilya IvashkaIvashka – Yi ZhouZhou (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Marat SharipovSharipov – Omar JasikaJasika (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Luca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo – Ji Sung NamSung Nam (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Jake Delaney/Jesse DelaneyDelaney/Jesse Delaney – Blake Bayldon/Joshua CharltonBayldon/Joshua Charlton (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Ji Sung Nam/Uisung ParkSung Nam/Uisung Park – Kaichi Uchida/Takeru YuzukiUchida/Takeru Yuzuki (7-64 6-4) – See score progression
- Luca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo – Ji Sung NamSung Nam (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Ilya IvashkaIvashka – Yi ZhouZhou (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Pavel KotovKotov – Alexis GalarneauGalarneau (3-6 6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Marat SharipovSharipov – Omar JasikaJasika (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Luca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo – Ilya IvashkaIvashka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pavel KotovKotov – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
