Jessica Pegula and Sorana Cirstea will play each other in the 4th round of the Cincinnati Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 1:30 pm on Grandstand. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.33
Sorana Cirstea -> 3.3
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Sorana Cirstea
This will be the 4th time that Jessica Pegula and Sorana Cirstea fight against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Pegula won 7-6(5) 6-3 in the 1st round in Madrid back in 2021.
Jessica Pegula
43 - 11win/loss
3
3
LWWWWWLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50-13 | 34-8 | 9-3 | 0-0 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 53-23 | 35-12 | 11-5 | 3-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-16 | 29-9 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3 (career-high), Jessica reached the 4th round after beating Simona Waltert 6-3 6-2 and Emma Navarro 7-5 6-2.
In the 3rd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Navarro (7-5 6-2). During the match, Pegula scored 85 points vs Navarro’s 71. Pegula was pretty aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Regarding the service games, Pegula scored 4 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Jessica Pegula lost the serve twice and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 61% of her first serves in, winning 69% (35/51) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (15/33) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Navarro 5 times after converting 36% of her break points (5/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to win 57% of the points she played.
WTA Cincinnati - Jessica Pegula's projected path
Pegula has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 69% of her matches (378-167). 26-6 on hard in 2026. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Pegula has an overall 255-98 record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Dubai where she overcame Elina Svitolina in the final 6-2 6-4 and in Charleston where she beat Yuliia Starodubtseva in the final 6-2 6-2.
Pegula has an aggregate 42-11 win-loss record in 2026, 26-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2024. See her history.
Sorana Cirstea
36 - 13win/loss
16
15
LWWWLWWLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39-14 | 17-8 | 14-4 | 5-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 30-20 | 26-14 | 3-2 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 12-16 | 9-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 31-22 | 21-14 | 7-4 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 22-21 | 10-10 | 4-6 | 4-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19, the Romanian got to the 4th round after beating Nikola Bartunkova 7-6(5) 6-3 and Anna Kalinskaya 6-7(4) 6-1 5-0 ret..
In the 3rd round against Kalinskaya, the Romanian had a free pass after Kalinskaya retired on a 6-74 6-1 5-0 . scoreline.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Napoca where she beat Emma Raducanu in the final 6-0 6-2.
The Romanian has a composed 36-12 win-loss record in 2026, 14-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2025. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Pegula | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 37 | 47 |
| Pts | 156-119 | 87-81 |
| Total Points | 275 | 168 |
| Winners | 58 | 40 |
| %Winners | 37% | 46% |
Both Pegula and Cirstea played 2 matches. At the moment, Sorana Cirstea lost 1 set while Jessica Pegula hasn’t conceded a set so far. Pegula has played 2 set(s) less than Cirstea (4 vs 6). Therefore, Pegula played 10 games less than Cirstea. Pegula scored 58 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Sorana fired 40 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Pegula | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 1st in | 83/136 | 53/91 |
| %1st in | 61% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 58/83 | 40/53 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 25/53 | 15/38 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 39% |
Pegula struck 7 aces (3.5 per match). Cirstea recorded 3 aces (1.5 per match). Pegula won 70% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Cirstea won 75% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 39% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Pegula | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 3 |
| Converted | 11/25 | 3/7 |
| % Converted | 44% | 43% |
| Conceded | 15 | 6 |
| Saved | 11 | 5 |
| % Saved | 73% | 83% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 |
Jessica broke her opponents 11 times with a 44% conversion rate. Jessica lost her serve 4 times and she saved 73% of the break points that she conceded. Cirstea broke her opponents 3 times with a 43% conversion rate. Sorana conceded her serve once and she saved 83% of the break points that she conceded.
| Pegula | ||||
| R2 Waltert |
R3 Navarro |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 7-5 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 20 | 37 | |
| pts | 71-48 | 85-71 | 156-119 | |
| Total points | 119 | 156 | 275 | |
| Winners | 23 | 35 | 58 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 41% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 32/52 | 51/84 | 83/136 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 61% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 23/32 | 35/51 | 58/83 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 69% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/20 | 15/33 | 25/53 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 45% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 11 | |
| Converted | 6/11 | 5/14 | 11/25 | |
| Converted % | 55% | 36% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 9 | 15 | |
| Saved | 4/6 | 7/9 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 78% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Cirstea | ||||
| R2 Bartunkova |
R3 Kalinskaya |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 6-3 | 6-74 6-1 5-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 25 | 47 | |
| pts | 87-81 | – | 87-81 | |
| Total points | 168 | 0 | 168 | |
| Winners | 40 | 40 | ||
| %Winners | 46% | 0% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 8 | ||
| 1st in | 53/91 | / | 53/91 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 0% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 40/53 | / | 40/53 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 0% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/38 | / | 15/38 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 0% | 39% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | ||
| Converted | 3/7 | / | 3/7 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 0% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | ||
| Saved | 5/6 | 0/ | 5 | |
| Saved % | 83% | – | 42% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | ||
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Cincinnati
- Madison KeysKeys – Katerina SiniakovaSiniakova (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Iva JovicJovic (7-60 7-65) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Janice TjenTjen (6-1 7-65) – See score progression
- Xiyu WangWang – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (w/o) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Xinyu WangWang (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Sara BejlekBejlek – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (4-6 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Ann LiLi (6-1 7-63) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Sloane StephensStephens (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Alexandra EalaEala (4-6 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (6-74 6-1 5-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Maria SakkariSakkari (4-6 6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Emma NavarroNavarro (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-4 7-62) – See score progression
- Diane ParryParry – Lois BoissonBoisson (4-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Maja ChwalinskaChwalinska (6-2 7-63) – See score progression
- Linda NoskovaNoskova – Clara TausonTauson (7-63 6-2) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Xinyu WangWang (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Sara BejlekBejlek – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (4-6 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Xiyu WangWang – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (w/o) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Ann LiLi (6-1 7-6(3)) – See score progression
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Iva JovicJovic (7-6(0) 7-6(5)) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Sloane StephensStephens (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Xiyu WangWang (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Jessica PegulaPegula (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Diane ParryParry (1-0) – H2H and prediction
