Marvin Moeller and Jan Kumstat will square off in the final of the Hamburg Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 1:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jan Kumstat who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jan Kumstat is the pick to win this match.
Jan Kumstat -> 1.28
Marvin Moeller -> 3.26
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Marvin Moeller vs. Jan Kumstat
This will be the 3rd time that Marvin Moeller and Jan Kumstat clash against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Kumstat (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Kumstat won 7-6(5) 6-4 in the quarter in M25 Ceska Lipa back in June 2026.
Marvin Moeller
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45-22 | 0-0 | 29-15 | 16-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 43-25 | 1-2 | 29-16 | 13-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-18 | 0-0 | 13-13 | 12-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-27 | 2-1 | 36-16 | 20-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| 2022 | 18-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 16-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 327, Moeller got to the final after beating Cezar Cretu 6-1 5-7 6-4, Raul Brancaccio 5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(4), Niels Mcdonald 6-4 6-0 and Matej Dodig 6-2 6-4.
In the semifinal, Moeller had a good straight sets win against Dodig (6-2 6-4). During the match, Moeller scored 68 points vs Dodig’s 51. The German was exceptionally aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Regarding the service games, Moeller made 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Marvin Moeller was extremely effective on serve to win 76% (26/34) of his 1st serve and 58% (14/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The German broke Dodig 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The German has lost 2 set in this event to conquer 54% of the points he played.
ATP Hamburg Challenger - Marvin Moeller's projected path
Moeller has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (267-150). 25-10 on clay in 2026. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Moeller has an aggregate 139-82 record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current season was winning the title the Troyes Challenger where he beat Kilian Feldbausch in the final 7-6(5) 6-3.
Marvin has a compiled 41-17 win-loss record in 2026, 25-10 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Hamburg Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2023. See his history.
Jan Kumstat
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37-14 | 6-4 | 29-8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 24-18 | 7-7 | 17-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 2024 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 347, Kumstat reached the final after beating Alan Wazny 6-2 7-6(3), Tom Zeuch 3-6 7-6(2) 6-3, Jamie Mackenzie 6-7(5) 6-3 6-3, Max Houkes 6-4 7-6(4), Carlos Taberner 7-5 ret. and Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 6-4 5-7 6-2.
In the semifinal, Kumstat defeated Pucinelli De Almeida (6-4 5-7 6-2). During the match Kumstat scored 96 points vs Pucinelli De Almeida’s 87. The Czech was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about serving, Kumstat struck 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Jan Kumstat was very effective on serve to win 79% (31/39) of his 1st serve and 56% (27/48) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Jan broke Pucinelli De Almeida 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jan started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
ATP Hamburg Challenger - Jan Kumstat's projected path
His best result of the season was winning the title the Liberec Challenger where he beat Gonzalo Bueno in the final 6-3 6-1.
The Czech has an aggregate 31-13 win-loss record in 2026, 23-7 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Hamburg Challenger
The Czech has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Moeller | Kumstat |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 15 |
| Tot Games | 101 | 148 |
| Pts | 383-323 | 523-455 |
| Total Points | 706 | 978 |
| Winners | 144 | 208 |
| %Winners | 38% | 40% |
Moeller played 4 matches while Kumstat competed in 6 matches. Kumstat started his run from the qualifications while Moeller had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Marvin Moeller surrendered 2 sets, while Jan Kumstat conceded 3 sets. Moeller has played 5 set(s) less than Kumstat (10 vs 15). Therefore, Moeller played 47 games less than Kumstat. Marvin scored 144 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, The Czech made 208 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Moeller | Kumstat |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 51 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 8.5 |
| 1st in | 209/344 | 255/445 |
| %1st in | 61% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 144/209 | 208/255 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 82% |
| 2nd pts | 71/135 | 104/190 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 55% |
Moeller bagged 12 aces (3 per match). Kumstat recorded 51 aces (8.5 per match). Moeller won 69% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Kumstat won 82% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Moeller | Kumstat |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 19 | 16 |
| Converted | 19/35 | 16/62 |
| % Converted | 54% | 26% |
| Conceded | 42 | 29 |
| Saved | 31 | 23 |
| % Saved | 74% | 79% |
| Times Broken | 11 | 6 |
The German broke his opponents 19 times with a 54% conversion rate. Marvin lost his serve 11 times and he saved 74% of the break points that he conceded. Kumstat broke his opponents 16 times with a 26% conversion rate. The Czech conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded.
| Moeller | ||||||
| R1 Cretu |
R2 Brancaccio |
1/4 Mcdonald |
1/2 Dodig |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 5-7 6-4 | 5-7 7-65 7-64 | 6-4 6-0 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 38 | 16 | 18 | 101 | |
| pts | 107-90 | 147-141 | 61-41 | 68-51 | 383-323 | |
| Total points | 197 | 288 | 102 | 119 | 706 | |
| Winners | 41 | 52 | 25 | 26 | 144 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 35% | 41% | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 55/92 | 86/146 | 34/48 | 34/58 | 209/344 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 59% | 71% | 59% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 41/55 | 52/86 | 25/34 | 26/34 | 144/209 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 60% | 74% | 76% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/37 | 31/60 | 9/14 | 14/24 | 71/135 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 52% | 64% | 58% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | |
| Converted | 6/12 | 6/13 | 4/6 | 3/4 | 19/35 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 46% | 67% | 75% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 16 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 42 | |
| Saved | 12/16 | 16/23 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 31 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 70% | 100% | 100% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | |
| Kumstat | ||||||||
| Q1 Wazny |
Q3 Zeuch |
R1 Mackenzie |
R2 Houkes |
1/4 Taberner |
1/2 Pucinelli De Almeida |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-63 | 3-6 7-62 6-3 | 6-75 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 7-64 | 7-5 ret. | 6-4 5-7 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 31 | 31 | 23 | 12 | 30 | 148 | |
| pts | 75-61 | 107-97 | 114-98 | 85-75 | 46-37 | 96-87 | 523-455 | |
| Total points | 136 | 204 | 212 | 160 | 83 | 183 | 978 | |
| Winners | 36 | 41 | 46 | 38 | 16 | 31 | 208 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 38% | 40% | 45% | 35% | 32% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 9 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 51 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 44/66 | 50/91 | 56/90 | 46/72 | 20/39 | 39/87 | 255/445 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 55% | 62% | 64% | 51% | 45% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 36/44 | 41/50 | 46/56 | 38/46 | 16/20 | 31/39 | 208/255 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 82% | 82% | 83% | 80% | 79% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/22 | 23/41 | 18/34 | 14/26 | 10/19 | 27/48 | 104/190 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 56% | 53% | 54% | 53% | 56% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 2/13 | 2/8 | 4/17 | 2/9 | 2/7 | 4/8 | 16/62 | |
| Converted % | 15% | 25% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 50% | 26% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 29 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | 4/5 | 2/3 | 4/5 | 3/4 | 6/8 | 23 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 80% | 67% | 80% | 75% | 75% | 119% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
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WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Hamburg Challenger
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