Nicolas Mejia and Juan Pablo Varillas will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Bogota Challenger for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 12:00 pm on COURT KIA. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Nicolas Mejia who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Nicolas Mejia is the pick to win this match.
Nicolas Mejia -> 1.82
Juan Pablo Varillas -> 1.86
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Nicolas Mejia vs. Juan Pablo Varillas
This will be the 4th time that Nicolas Mejia and Juan Pablo Varillas face off. The head to head is 2-1 for Pablo Patino-Samudio (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Mejia won 7-6(5) 6-2 in the quarter in the Bogota Challenger back in 2025.
Nicolas Mejia
27 - 17win/loss
121
115
LLLWWLWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33-22 | 14-15 | 13-4 | 1-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 41-33 | 21-19 | 18-6 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 44-33 | 18-21 | 23-8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 24-33 | 6-13 | 18-18 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 31-35 | 13-12 | 15-13 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 165, Nicolas got to the semifinal after defeating Fermin Tenti 6-3 6-2, Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 7-6(2) 6-7(3) 6-2 and Hernan Casanova 6-3 6-2.
In the quarter, Nicolas had a good straight sets win against Casanova (6-3 6-2). During the match, Mejia scored 62 points vs Casanova’s 42. Mejia was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Mejia bagged 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Nicolas Mejia lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Mejia put 66% of his first serves in, winning 73% (24/33) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (8/17) on the 2nd serve. Mejia broke Casanova 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Nicolas has dropped 1 set in this event to win 55% of the points he played.
ATP Bogota Challenger - Nicolas Mejia's projected path
Mejia has winning win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 55% of his matches (275-227). 11-4 on clay in 2026. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Mejia has an overall 144-91 match record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title the San Luis Potosi Challenger where he beat James Duckworth in the final 7-6(6) 6-2.
Mejia has an aggregate 27-17 win-loss record in 2026, 11-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Bogota Challenger
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2025. See his history.
Juan Pablo Varillas
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30-22 | 0-1 | 30-20 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 31-20 | 0-1 | 31-19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 27-31 | 0-5 | 27-25 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 29-29 | 4-7 | 23-17 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 53-27 | 2-3 | 51-23 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 308, Juan got to the semifinal after defeating Bruno Fernandez 2-6 6-3 6-4, Luis Carlos Alvarez 7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-1 and Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 6-3 7-6(4).
In the quarter, Pablo Patino-Samudio had a good straight sets win against Pucinelli De Almeida (6-3 7-64). During the match Pablo Patino-Samudio scored 70 points vs Pucinelli De Almeida’s 65. Juan was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.
About the serving games, Pablo Patino-Samudio recorded 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Juan Pablo Varillas was extremely effective on serve to win 71% (30/42) of his 1st serve and 52% (17/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Peruvian was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Pucinelli De Almeida 3 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Peruvian has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points he played.
ATP Bogota Challenger - Juan Pablo Varillas's projected path
Pablo Patino-Samudio has an overall 18-16 win-loss record in 2026, 18-15 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Bogota Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2025. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Mejia | Pablo Patino-Samudio |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 68 | 82 |
| Pts | 232-187 | 274-260 |
| Total Points | 419 | 534 |
| Winners | 98 | 127 |
| %Winners | 42% | 46% |
Both Mejia and Pablo Patino-Samudio played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Nicolas Mejia dropped 1 set, while Juan Pablo Varillas conceded 2 sets. Mejia has played 1 set(s) less than Pablo Patino-Samudio (7 vs 8). Therefore, Mejia played 14 games less than Pablo Patino-Samudio. The Colombian scored 98 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Peruvian managed to score 127 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Mejia | Pablo Patino-Samudio |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 24 | 22 |
| Avg per match | 8 | 7.3 |
| 1st in | 131/226 | 178/298 |
| %1st in | 58% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 98/131 | 127/178 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 51/95 | 56/120 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 47% |
Mejia bagged 24 aces (8 per match). Pablo Patino-Samudio struck 22 aces (7.3 per match). Mejia won 75% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Pablo Patino-Samudio won 71% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Mejia | Pablo Patino-Samudio |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 12 |
| Converted | 12/20 | 12/18 |
| % Converted | 60% | 67% |
| Conceded | 18 | 35 |
| Saved | 14 | 28 |
| % Saved | 78% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 7 |
The Colombian broke his opponents 12 times with a 60% conversion rate. Mejia conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded. Juan broke his opponents 12 times with a 67% conversion rate. The Peruvian conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.
| Mejia | |||||
| R1 Tenti |
R2 Rodriguez |
1/4 Casanova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 7-62 6-73 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 34 | 17 | 68 | |
| pts | 59-43 | 111-102 | 62-42 | 232-187 | |
| Total points | 102 | 213 | 104 | 419 | |
| Winners | 23 | 51 | 24 | 98 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 46% | 39% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 13 | 5 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 31/60 | 67/116 | 33/50 | 131/226 | |
| % 1st in | 52% | 58% | 66% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 23/31 | 51/67 | 24/33 | 98/131 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 76% | 73% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/29 | 27/49 | 8/17 | 51/95 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 55% | 47% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | |
| Converted | 4/4 | 3/6 | 5/10 | 12/20 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 5/6 | 4/6 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 83% | 83% | 67% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Pablo Patino-Samudio | |||||
| R1 Fernandez |
R2 Carlos Alvarez |
1/4 Pucinelli De Almeida |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 6-3 6-4 | 7-64 6-74 6-1 | 6-3 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 33 | 22 | 82 | |
| pts | 87-84 | 117-111 | 70-65 | 274-260 | |
| Total points | 171 | 228 | 135 | 534 | |
| Winners | 48 | 49 | 30 | 127 | |
| %Winners | 55% | 42% | 43% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 13 | 3 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 67/101 | 69/122 | 42/75 | 178/298 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 57% | 56% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 48/67 | 49/69 | 30/42 | 127/178 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 71% | 71% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/34 | 25/53 | 17/33 | 56/120 | |
| % 2nd pts | 41% | 47% | 52% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 6/11 | 3/3 | 12/18 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 55% | 100% | 67% | |
| Conceded | 14 | 15 | 6 | 35 | |
| Saved | 11/14 | 12/15 | 5/6 | 28 | |
| Saved % | 79% | 80% | 83% | 81% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Bogota Challenger
- Nicolas MejiaMejia – Hernan CasanovaCasanova (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Lorenzo ClaverieClaverie – Facundo MenaMena (7-65 7-66) – See score progression
- Matias SotoSoto – Lucas Andrade Da SilvaAndrade Da Silva (6-4 6-75 6-1) – See score progression
- Juan Pablo VarillasPablo Varillas – Matheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaPucinelli De Almeida (6-3 7-64) – See score progression
- Juan Alejandro Hernandez/Rodrigo Pacheco MendezAlejandro Hernandez/Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez – Alan Magadan/Johan Alexander RodriguezMagadan/Johan Alexander Rodriguez (6-75 6-3 10-8) – See score progression
- Nicolas MejiaMejia – Hernan CasanovaCasanova (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Juan Pablo VarillasPablo Varillas – Matheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaPucinelli De Almeida (6-3 7-6(4)) – See score progression
- Matias SotoSoto – Lucas Andrade Da SilvaAndrade Da Silva (6-4 6-7(5) 6-1) – See score progression
- Lorenzo ClaverieClaverie – Facundo MenaMena (7-6(5) 7-6(6)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Nicolas MejiaMejia – Juan Pablo VarillasPablo Varillas (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Matias SotoSoto – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
