Daniel Merida Aguilar and Andrea Pellegrino will square off in the semifinal of the Perugia Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 8:30 pm on CENTER COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniel Merida Aguilar who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniel Merida Aguilar is the pick to win this match.
Daniel Merida Aguilar -> 1.74
Andrea Pellegrino -> 1.95
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Daniel Merida Aguilar vs. Andrea Pellegrino
This will be the 2nd time that Daniel Merida Aguilar and Andrea Pellegrino play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Pellegrino (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Pellegrino won 6-4 6-7(4) 6-3 in the 1st round in the Murcia Challenger back in 2024.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
29 - 13win/loss
41
39
WLWWLWWLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44-20 | 20-8 | 23-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 50-25 | 15-5 | 35-16 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 57-33 | 17-9 | 40-23 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-31 | 16-13 | 20-17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-26 | 8-9 | 21-16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 86 (career-high), the Spaniard reached the semifinal after beating Gianluca Cadenasso 6-2 ret., Liam Broady 6-4 6-2 and Pablo Llamas Ruiz 6-1 6-2.
In the quarter, Merida Aguilar had a good straight sets win against Llamas Ruiz (6-1 6-2). During the match, Merida Aguilar scored 61 points vs Llamas Ruiz’s 36. Daniel was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Merida Aguilar managed to score 3 aces and he was extremely solid in conceding no double faults. Daniel Merida Aguilar was pretty effective on serve to win 75% (24/32) of his 1st serve and 73% (11/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Daniel broke Llamas Ruiz 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Daniel hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to win 60% of the points he played.
ATP Perugia Challenger - Daniel Merida Aguilar's projected path
Merida Aguilar has a solid match record in the last 7 years having won 60% of his matches (214-145). 16-7 on clay in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Merida Aguilar has a compiled144-92 record in the last 7 years on clay.
His best result of the current year was winning the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he overcame Francesco Maestrelli in the final 6-2 6-4.
The Spaniard has an overall 28-13 win-loss record in 2026, 16-7 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Perugia Challenger
The Spaniard has never competed in this tournament before.
Andrea Pellegrino
23 - 14win/loss
144
109
LWLLWLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30-22 | 1-3 | 28-18 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 37-24 | 0-2 | 37-18 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-30 | 0-2 | 24-26 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-29 | 2-2 | 28-26 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-28 | 0-3 | 27-20 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 124 (career-high), the Italian got to the semifinal after beating Maks Kasnikowski 4-6 7-6(5) 6-1, Roberto Carballes Baena 4-6 7-5 6-3 and Pierluigi Basile 6-2 6-3.
In the quarter, Andrea had a good straight sets win against Basile (6-2 6-3). During the match Pellegrino scored 60 points vs Basile’s 39. The Italian was extremely aggressive to blast 16 winners.
About the serving games, Pellegrino scored 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Andrea Pellegrino was quite effective on serve to win 73% (16/22) of his 1st serve and 60% (12/20) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Pellegrino broke Basile 6 times after converting 55% of his break points (6/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pellegrino has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
ATP Perugia Challenger - Andrea Pellegrino's projected path
Pellegrino has a compiled 23-13 win-loss record in 2026, 23-12 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Perugia Challenger
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2025. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Merida Aguilar | Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 41 | 78 |
| Pts | 157-102 | 264-233 |
| Total Points | 259 | 497 |
| Winners | 66 | 106 |
| %Winners | 42% | 40% |
Both Merida Aguilar and Pellegrino played 3 matches. At the moment, Andrea Pellegrino dropped 2 sets while Daniel Merida Aguilar hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Merida Aguilar has played 2 set(s) less than Pellegrino (6 vs 8). Therefore, Merida Aguilar played 37 games less than Pellegrino. The Spaniard scored 66 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Andrea bagged 106 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Merida Aguilar | Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| 1st in | 88/131 | 161/257 |
| %1st in | 67% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 66/88 | 106/161 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 26/43 | 51/96 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 53% |
Merida Aguilar scored 8 aces (2.7 per match). Pellegrino bagged 7 aces (2.3 per match). Merida Aguilar won 75% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Pellegrino won 66% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Merida Aguilar | Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 16 |
| Converted | 11/21 | 16/23 |
| % Converted | 52% | 70% |
| Conceded | 13 | 21 |
| Saved | 11 | 11 |
| % Saved | 85% | 52% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 10 |
The Spaniard broke his opponents 11 times with a 52% conversion rate. Daniel dropped his serve twice and he saved 85% of the break points that he conceded. Andrea broke his opponents 16 times with a 70% conversion rate. Pellegrino conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 52% of the break points that he conceded.
| Merida Aguilar | |||||
| R1 Cadenasso |
R2 Broady |
1/4 Llamas Ruiz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 ret. | 6-4 6-2 | 6-1 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 8 | 18 | 15 | 41 | |
| pts | 33-19 | 63-47 | 61-36 | 157-102 | |
| Total points | 52 | 110 | 97 | 259 | |
| Winners | 10 | 32 | 24 | 66 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 51% | 39% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 15/25 | 41/59 | 32/47 | 88/131 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 69% | 68% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 10/15 | 32/41 | 24/32 | 66/88 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 78% | 75% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/10 | 8/18 | 11/15 | 26/43 | |
| % 2nd pts | 70% | 44% | 73% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 4/6 | 4/8 | 11/21 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 67% | 50% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 7 | 3 | 13 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 6/7 | 3/3 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 86% | 100% | 84% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Pellegrino | |||||
| R1 Kasnikowski |
R2 Carballes Baena |
1/4 Basile |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 7-65 6-1 | 4-6 7-5 6-3 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 31 | 17 | 78 | |
| pts | 102-94 | 102-100 | 60-39 | 264-233 | |
| Total points | 196 | 202 | 99 | 497 | |
| Winners | 41 | 49 | 16 | 106 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 48% | 27% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 64/101 | 75/114 | 22/42 | 161/257 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 66% | 52% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 41/64 | 49/75 | 16/22 | 106/161 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 65% | 73% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/37 | 17/39 | 12/20 | 51/96 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 44% | 60% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 5/5 | 6/11 | 16/23 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 100% | 55% | 70% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 9 | 4 | 21 | |
| Saved | 4/8 | 5/9 | 2/4 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 56% | 50% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Perugia Challenger
- Timofey SkatovSkatov – Marco CecchinatoCecchinato (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrea PellegrinoPellegrino – Pierluigi BasileBasile (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Henrique RochaRocha – Remy BertolaBertola (6-2 4-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Daniel Merida AguilarMerida Aguilar – Pablo Llamas RuizLlamas Ruiz (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Ryan Seggerman/Theodore WinegarSeggerman/Theodore Winegar – Francesco Forti/Giorgio RiccaForti/Giorgio Ricca (6-4 6-74 10-5) – See score progression
- Mac Kiger/Reese StalderKiger/Reese Stalder – Pruchya Isarow/Niki Kaliyanda PoonachaIsarow/Niki Kaliyanda Poonacha (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Daniel Merida AguilarMerida Aguilar – Pablo Llamas RuizLlamas Ruiz (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Andrea PellegrinoPellegrino – Pierluigi BasileBasile (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Timofey SkatovSkatov – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
