Hubert Hurkacz and Matteo Arnaldi will square off in the final of the Cagliari Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Hubert Hurkacz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Hubert Hurkacz is the pick to win this match.
Hubert Hurkacz -> 1.37
Matteo Arnaldi -> 2.8
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Hubert Hurkacz vs. Matteo Arnaldi
There is no head to head record between Hubert Hurkacz and Matteo Arnaldi since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.
Hubert Hurkacz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25-19 | 13-9 | 8-5 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 15-11 | 4-5 | 7-4 | 3-2 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 40-19 | 17-10 | 14-4 | 4-3 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-24 | 23-11 | 5-5 | 13-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-21 | 18-9 | 9-4 | 9-6 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 63, the Pole got to the final after defeating Zachary Svajda 6-2 7-6(8), Emilio Nava 6-4 6-1, Matteo Berrettini 4-6 6-3 6-4 and Roman Andres Burruchaga 4-6 7-6(3) 6-3.
In the semifinal against Andres Burruchaga, The Pole recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 7-63 6-3). During the match, Hurkacz scored 116 points vs Andres Burruchaga’s 109. The Pole was quite aggressive to blast 49 winners.
Talking about the service games, Hurkacz struck 11 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Hubert Hurkacz lost the serve 4 times and he saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Hurkacz put 66% of his first serves in, winning 66% (49/74) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (17/38) on the 2nd serve. Hurkacz broke Andres Burruchaga 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Hurkacz has conceded 2 set in this tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
ATP Cagliari Challenger - Hubert Hurkacz's projected path
Hurkacz has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (350-210). 7-2 on clay in 2026. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Hurkacz has a compiled 81-49 match record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the year was conquering the title in Australia where he overcame Stan Wawrinka in the final 6-3 3-6 6-3.
The Pole has a composed 12-10 win-loss record in 2026, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Cagliari Challenger
Hurkacz has never competed in this tournament before.
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18-16 | 2-7 | 14-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 23-26 | 11-14 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-26 | 17-13 | 10-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 103, Matteo reached the final after beating Federico Arnaboldi 6-7(3) 6-4 6-2, Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-2 6-3, Nuno Borges 6-3 6-7(2) 7-6(3) and Gianluca Cadenasso 1-6 6-1 6-0.
In the semifinal against Cadenasso, The Italian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-1 6-0). During the match Arnaldi scored 74 points vs Cadenasso’s 58. Matteo was exceptionally aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about serving, Arnaldi fired 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve 4 times and he saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 53% of his first serves in, winning 54% (22/41) of the points behind his 1st serve and 54% (20/37) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Cadenasso 7 times after converting 58% of his break points (7/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Arnaldi has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
ATP Cagliari Challenger - Matteo Arnaldi's projected path
Arnaldi’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in the Cagliari Challenger.
Arnaldi has an overall 6-8 win-loss record in 2026, 5-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Hurkacz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 99 | 103 |
| Pts | 337-279 | 364-313 |
| Total Points | 616 | 677 |
| Winners | 137 | 129 |
| %Winners | 41% | 35% |
Both Hurkacz and Arnaldi played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Hubert Hurkacz dropped 2 sets, while Matteo Arnaldi dropped 3 sets. Hurkacz has played 1 set(s) less than Arnaldi (10 vs 11). Therefore, Hurkacz played 4 games less than Arnaldi. Hubert scored 137 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian made 129 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Hurkacz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 42 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 10.5 | 3 |
| 1st in | 182/305 | 194/344 |
| %1st in | 60% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 137/182 | 129/194 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 73/123 | 81/150 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 54% |
Hurkacz recorded 42 aces (10.5 per match). Arnaldi managed to score 12 aces (3 per match). Hurkacz won 75% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 66% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Hurkacz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 21 |
| Converted | 14/29 | 21/50 |
| % Converted | 48% | 42% |
| Conceded | 21 | 38 |
| Saved | 14 | 27 |
| % Saved | 67% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 11 |
Hurkacz broke his opponents 14 times with a 48% conversion rate. The Pole dropped his serve 7 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 21 times with a 42% conversion rate. Matteo conceded his serve 11 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| Hurkacz | ||||||
| R1 Svajda |
R2 Nava |
1/4 Berrettini |
1/2 Andres |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-68 | 6-4 6-1 | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | 4-6 7-63 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 17 | 29 | 32 | 99 | |
| pts | 74-60 | 59-36 | 88-74 | 116-109 | 337-279 | |
| Total points | 134 | 95 | 162 | 225 | 616 | |
| Winners | 29 | 22 | 37 | 49 | 137 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 37% | 42% | 42% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 11 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 42 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 36/67 | 27/43 | 45/83 | 74/112 | 182/305 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 63% | 54% | 66% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 29/36 | 22/27 | 37/45 | 49/74 | 137/182 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 81% | 82% | 66% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/31 | 13/16 | 25/38 | 17/38 | 73/123 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 81% | 66% | 45% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 4/7 | 2/4 | 5/14 | 14/29 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 57% | 50% | 36% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 21 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 0/1 | 3/4 | 11/15 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | 75% | 73% | 37% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | |
| Arnaldi | ||||||
| R1 Arnaboldi |
R2 Manuel |
1/4 Borges |
1/2 Cadenasso |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-73 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 | 6-3 6-72 7-63 | 1-6 6-1 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 17 | 35 | 20 | 103 | |
| pts | 104-85 | 72-54 | 114-116 | 74-58 | 364-313 | |
| Total points | 189 | 126 | 230 | 132 | 677 | |
| Winners | 39 | 20 | 48 | 22 | 129 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 28% | 42% | 30% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 55/90 | 28/58 | 70/118 | 41/78 | 194/344 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 48% | 59% | 53% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 39/55 | 20/28 | 48/70 | 22/41 | 129/194 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 71% | 69% | 54% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/35 | 17/30 | 22/48 | 20/37 | 81/150 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 57% | 46% | 54% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | |
| Converted | 6/15 | 4/13 | 4/10 | 7/12 | 21/50 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 31% | 40% | 58% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 38 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 6/7 | 6/9 | 11/15 | 27 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 86% | 67% | 73% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
