Matteo Arnaldi and Gianluca Cadenasso will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Cagliari Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 1:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Arnaldi who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Matteo Arnaldi is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Arnaldi -> 1.42
Gianluca Cadenasso -> 2.61
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Gianluca Cadenasso
There is no head to head record between Matteo Arnaldi and Gianluca Cadenasso since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18-16 | 2-7 | 14-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 23-26 | 11-14 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-26 | 17-13 | 10-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 103, Arnaldi reached the semifinal after beating Federico Arnaboldi 6-7(3) 6-4 6-2, Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-2 6-3 and Nuno Borges 6-3 6-7(2) 7-6(3).
In the quarter, Arnaldi defeated Borges (6-3 6-72 7-63).During the match, Arnaldi scored less points (2) than Borges. In fact, the world no. 103 won 114 points vs Borges’s. That means that Arnaldi was more focused during the important points. The Italian was extremely aggressive to blast 48 winners.
Regarding the service games, Arnaldi fired 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve 3 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 59% of his first serves in, winning 69% (48/70) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (22/48) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Borges 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Arnaldi has surrendered 2 set in this event to conquer 53% of the points he played.
ATP Cagliari Challenger - Matteo Arnaldi's projected path
Arnaldi has a winning win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 59% of his matches (244-168). 4-5 on clay in 2026. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Arnaldi has a compiled136-75 win-loss record in the last 9 years on clay.
Matteo has an aggregate 5-8 win-loss record in 2026, 4-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Cagliari Challenger
Arnaldi has never competed in this tournament before.
Gianluca Cadenasso
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15-15 | 0-0 | 15-14 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 48-24 | 5-4 | 43-20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 49-23 | 0-0 | 49-23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 20-11 | 14-5 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 9-8 | 5-3 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 232, the Italian got to the semifinal after beating Lorenzo Carboni 6-3 6-1, Mattia Bellucci 7-5 6-1 and Jesper De Jong 6-4 5-7 6-3.
In the quarter, The Italian defeated De Jong (6-4 5-7 6-3). During the match Cadenasso scored 112 points vs De Jong’s 107. Cadenasso was pretty aggressive to blast 45 winners.
About the serving games, Cadenasso fired 4 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Gianluca Cadenasso lost the serve 5 times and he saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Cadenasso put 59% of his first serves in, winning 66% (45/68) of the points behind his 1st serve and 40% (19/48) on the 2nd serve. Gianluca broke De Jong 7 times after converting 41% of his break points (7/17).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Cadenasso has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
ATP Cagliari Challenger - Gianluca Cadenasso's projected path
His best result of the current season was winning the title the Asuncion Challenger where he beat Franco Roncadelli in the final 7-6(5) 6-0.
The Italian has an overall 14-9 win-loss record in 2026, 14-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Arnaldi | Cadenasso |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 83 | 66 |
| Pts | 290-255 | 242-194 |
| Total Points | 545 | 436 |
| Winners | 107 | 96 |
| %Winners | 37% | 40% |
Both Arnaldi and Cadenasso played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Matteo Arnaldi surrendered 2 sets, while Gianluca Cadenasso dropped 1 set. Arnaldi has played 1 set more than Cadenasso (8 vs 7). Therefore, Arnaldi played 17 games more than Cadenasso. Matteo scored 107 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Gianluca made 96 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Arnaldi | Cadenasso |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| 1st in | 153/266 | 140/224 |
| %1st in | 58% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 107/153 | 96/140 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 61/113 | 39/84 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 46% |
Arnaldi managed to score 10 aces (3.3 per match). Cadenasso blasted 10 aces (3.3 per match). Arnaldi won 70% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Cadenasso won 69% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Arnaldi | Cadenasso |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 17 |
| Converted | 14/38 | 17/37 |
| % Converted | 37% | 46% |
| Conceded | 23 | 26 |
| Saved | 16 | 18 |
| % Saved | 70% | 69% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 8 |
Arnaldi broke his opponents 14 times with a 37% conversion rate. Arnaldi surrendered his serve 7 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 17 times with a 46% conversion rate. Gianluca conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.
| Arnaldi | |||||
| R1 Arnaboldi |
R2 Manuel |
1/4 Borges |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-73 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 | 6-3 6-72 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 17 | 35 | 83 | |
| pts | 104-85 | 72-54 | 114-116 | 290-255 | |
| Total points | 189 | 126 | 230 | 545 | |
| Winners | 39 | 20 | 48 | 107 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 28% | 42% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 55/90 | 28/58 | 70/118 | 153/266 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 48% | 59% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 39/55 | 20/28 | 48/70 | 107/153 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 71% | 69% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/35 | 17/30 | 22/48 | 61/113 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 57% | 46% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 | |
| Converted | 6/15 | 4/13 | 4/10 | 14/38 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 31% | 40% | 37% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | 9 | 23 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 6/7 | 6/9 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 86% | 67% | 70% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
| Cadenasso | |||||
| R1 Carboni |
R2 Bellucci |
1/4 De |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-1 | 7-5 6-1 | 6-4 5-7 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 19 | 31 | 66 | |
| pts | 62-40 | 68-47 | 112-107 | 242-194 | |
| Total points | 102 | 115 | 219 | 436 | |
| Winners | 26 | 25 | 45 | 96 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 37% | 40% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 36/49 | 36/59 | 68/116 | 140/224 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 61% | 59% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 26/36 | 25/36 | 45/68 | 96/140 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 69% | 66% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/13 | 13/23 | 19/48 | 39/84 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 57% | 40% | 46% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 7 | 17 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 5/10 | 7/17 | 17/37 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | 41% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 6 | 16 | 26 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 4/6 | 11/16 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 67% | 69% | 70% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Cagliari Challenger
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Nuno BorgesBorges (6-3 6-72 7-63) – See score progression
- Gianluca CadenassoCadenasso – Jesper De JongDe Jong (6-4 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
- Roman Andres BurruchagaAndres Burruchaga – Marcos GironGiron (6-3 2-6 7-61) – See score progression
- Mac Kiger/Reese StalderKiger/Reese Stalder – Constantin Frantzen/Robin HaaseFrantzen/Robin Haase (6-4 4-6 10-6) – See score progression
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Roman Andres BurruchagaAndres Burruchaga – Marcos GironGiron (6-3 2-6 7-6(1)) – See score progression
- Gianluca CadenassoCadenasso – Jesper De JongDe Jong (6-4 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
