Nuno Borges and Matteo Arnaldi will clash against each other in the quarter of the Cagliari Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 12:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Nuno Borges who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Nuno Borges is the pick to win this match.
Nuno Borges -> 1.65
Matteo Arnaldi -> 2.08
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Nuno Borges vs. Matteo Arnaldi
This will be the 3rd time that Nuno Borges and Matteo Arnaldi square off. The head to head is 2-0 for Borges (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Borges won 6-3 6-7(2) 6-2 in the qualifications in at the Wimbledon back in 2022.
Nuno Borges
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27-26 | 13-11 | 9-9 | 0-2 | 5-4 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 33-33 | 17-14 | 9-11 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 33-26 | 20-12 | 13-7 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-26 | 20-11 | 8-7 | 6-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 49-26 | 7-5 | 28-13 | 11-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 49, Nuno reached the quarter after beating Cristian Garin 6-4 3-6 7-6(6).
In the 2nd round, Nuno defeated Garin (6-4 3-6 7-66). During the match, Borges scored 100 points vs Garin’s 97. The Portuguese was exceptionally aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Regarding the service games, Borges fired 5 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Nuno Borges was quite efficient on serve to win 75% (36/48) of his 1st serve and 60% (28/47) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Borges broke Garin twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).
ATP Cagliari Challenger - Nuno Borges's projected path
Borges has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (308-170). 3-4 on clay in 2026. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Borges has a composed 126-66 record in the last years on clay.
Nuno has a composed 10-14 win-loss record in 2026, 3-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Cagliari Challenger
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18-16 | 2-7 | 14-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 23-26 | 11-14 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-26 | 17-13 | 10-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 103, Arnaldi reached the quarter after beating Federico Arnaboldi 6-7(3) 6-4 6-2 and Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-2 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Arnaldi had a good straight sets win against Manuel Cerundolo (6-2 6-3). During the match Arnaldi scored 72 points vs Manuel Cerundolo’s 54. Arnaldi was exceptionally aggressive to blast 20 winners.
About the serving games, Arnaldi bagged 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Matteo Arnaldi was pretty effective on serve to win 71% (20/28) of his 1st serve and 57% (17/30) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Arnaldi broke Manuel Cerundolo 4 times after converting 31% of his break points (4/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Arnaldi has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
ATP Cagliari Challenger - Matteo Arnaldi's projected path
The Italian has a composed 4-8 win-loss record in 2026, 3-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Borges | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 32 | 48 |
| Pts | 100-97 | 176-139 |
| Total Points | 197 | 315 |
| Winners | 36 | 59 |
| %Winners | 36% | 34% |
Borges played 1 match while Arnaldi competed in 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Nuno Borges conceded 1 set, while Matteo Arnaldi surrendered 1 set. Borges has played 2 set(s) less than Arnaldi (3 vs 5). Therefore, Borges played 16 games less than Arnaldi. Borges scored 36 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo managed to score 59 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Borges | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 48/95 | 83/148 |
| %1st in | 51% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 36/48 | 59/83 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 28/47 | 39/65 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 60% |
Borges bagged 5 aces . Arnaldi managed to score 5 aces (2.5 per match). Borges won 75% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Borges | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 2 | 10 |
| Converted | 2/7 | 10/28 |
| % Converted | 29% | 36% |
| Conceded | 7 | 14 |
| Saved | 5 | 10 |
| % Saved | 71% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 |
Nuno broke his opponent twice with a 29% conversion rate. Nuno lost his serve twice and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded. Arnaldi broke his opponents 10 times with a 36% conversion rate. Matteo conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| Borges | |||
| R2 Garin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 3-6 7-66 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 32 | |
| pts | 100-97 | 100-97 | |
| Total points | 197 | 197 | |
| Winners | 36 | 36 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 48/95 | 48/95 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 51% | |
| 1st pts | 36/48 | 36/48 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 28/47 | 28/47 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/7 | 2/7 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 29% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Arnaldi | ||||
| R1 Arnaboldi |
R2 Manuel |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-73 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 17 | 48 | |
| pts | 104-85 | 72-54 | 176-139 | |
| Total points | 189 | 126 | 315 | |
| Winners | 39 | 20 | 59 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 28% | 34% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 55/90 | 28/58 | 83/148 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 48% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 39/55 | 20/28 | 59/83 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 71% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/35 | 17/30 | 39/65 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 57% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 10 | |
| Converted | 6/15 | 4/13 | 10/28 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 31% | 36% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | 14 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 6/7 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 86% | 143% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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