Luka Pavlovic and Stefano Napolitano will play each other in the semifinal of the Mexico City Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 2:30 pm on ESTADIO. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Luka Pavlovic who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Luka Pavlovic is the pick to win this match.
Luka Pavlovic -> 1.69
Stefano Napolitano -> 2.02
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Luka Pavlovic vs. Stefano Napolitano
This will be the 3rd time that Luka Pavlovic and Stefano Napolitano square off. The head to head is 1-1 for Pavlovic and Napolitano (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Napolitano won 6-4 6-3 in the quarter in the Kigali 1 Challenger back in March 2026.
Luka Pavlovic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24-23 | 10-8 | 11-13 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 33-23 | 1-2 | 30-19 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 44-18 | 0-0 | 42-16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-12 | 0-1 | 38-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 200, Luka got to the semifinal after beating Facundo Mena 7-6(4) 4-6 6-2, Aidan Mayo 6-1 3-6 7-6(8) and Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 2-6 6-4 7-6(1).
In the quarter against Pacheco Mendez, Luka recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-4 7-61).During the match, Pavlovic scored less points (2) than Pacheco Mendez. In fact, the world no. 200 won 83 points vs Pacheco Mendez’s. That means that Pavlovic was more focused during the important points. Pavlovic was quite aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Talking about the service games, Pavlovic scored 16 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Luka Pavlovic lost the serve 3 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Pavlovic put 45% of his first serves in, winning 92% (36/39) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (24/48) on the 2nd serve. Pavlovic broke Pacheco Mendez twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Luka has dropped 3 set in this event to win 51% of the points he played.
ATP Mexico City Challenger - Luka Pavlovic's projected path
Pavlovic has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (226-145). 6-3 on clay in 2026. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Pavlovic has an aggregate 200-113 match record in the last years on clay.
Pavlovic’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in the Morelia Challenger.
Luka has an aggregate 11-7 win-loss record in 2026, 6-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Mexico City Challenger
Stefano Napolitano
19 - 6win/loss
279
121
LWLLLLLLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26-21 | 7-6 | 16-13 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 19-19 | 2-5 | 12-10 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-17 | 10-4 | 11-10 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 53-23 | 9-6 | 38-13 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 25-24 | 1-1 | 20-15 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 302, the Italian reached the semifinal after beating Andres Martin 6-4 6-4, Matias Soto 6-1 7-6(8) and Tristan Schoolkate 3-6 6-1 6-4.
In the quarter against Schoolkate, Stefano recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-1 6-4). During the match Napolitano scored 89 points vs Schoolkate’s 79. Napolitano was very aggressive to blast 34 winners.
About the serving games, Napolitano bagged 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Stefano Napolitano was extremely efficient on serve to win 76% (34/45) of his 1st serve and 53% (18/34) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Stefano broke Schoolkate 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Stefano has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
ATP Mexico City Challenger - Stefano Napolitano's projected path
Stefano’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in the Kigali 1 Challenger.
The Italian has an aggregate 18-6 win-loss record in 2026, 11-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Mexico City Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2025. See his history.
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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Pavlovic | Napolitano |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 91 | 66 |
| Pts | 302-291 | 236-191 |
| Total Points | 593 | 427 |
| Winners | 116 | 80 |
| %Winners | 38% | 34% |
Both Pavlovic and Napolitano played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Luka Pavlovic conceded 3 sets, while Stefano Napolitano surrendered 1 set. Pavlovic has played 2 sets more than Napolitano (9 vs 7). Therefore, Pavlovic played 25 games more than Napolitano. Luka scored 116 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Stefano scored 80 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Pavlovic | Napolitano |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 42 | 17 |
| Avg per match | 14 | 5.7 |
| 1st in | 139/300 | 110/200 |
| %1st in | 46% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 116/139 | 80/110 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 75/161 | 60/90 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 67% |
Pavlovic fired 42 aces (14 per match). Napolitano bagged 17 aces (5.7 per match). Pavlovic won 83% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Napolitano won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 67% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Pavlovic | Napolitano |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 10 |
| Converted | 9/28 | 10/23 |
| % Converted | 32% | 43% |
| Conceded | 24 | 11 |
| Saved | 16 | 7 |
| % Saved | 67% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 4 |
Luka broke his opponents 9 times with a 32% conversion rate. Luka lost his serve 8 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Napolitano broke his opponents 10 times with a 43% conversion rate. Napolitano conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
| Pavlovic | |||||
| R1 Mena |
R2 Mayo |
1/4 Pacheco |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 4-6 6-2 | 6-1 3-6 7-68 | 2-6 6-4 7-61 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 29 | 31 | 91 | |
| pts | 109-103 | 110-103 | 83-85 | 302-291 | |
| Total points | 212 | 213 | 168 | 593 | |
| Winners | 37 | 43 | 36 | 116 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 39% | 43% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | 21 | 16 | 42 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 9 | 5 | 23 | |
| 1st in | 50/112 | 50/101 | 39/87 | 139/300 | |
| % 1st in | 45% | 50% | 45% | 46% | |
| 1st pts | 37/50 | 43/50 | 36/39 | 116/139 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 86% | 92% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 28/62 | 23/51 | 24/48 | 75/161 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 45% | 50% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 2/14 | 2/5 | 9/28 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 14% | 40% | 32% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 7 | 7 | 24 | |
| Saved | 6/10 | 6/7 | 4/7 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 86% | 57% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| Napolitano | |||||
| R1 Martin |
R2 Soto |
1/4 Schoolkate |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 6-1 7-68 | 3-6 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | 26 | 66 | |
| pts | 70-53 | 77-59 | 89-79 | 236-191 | |
| Total points | 123 | 136 | 168 | 427 | |
| Winners | 21 | 25 | 34 | 80 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 32% | 38% | 34% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 11 | 5 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 26/51 | 39/70 | 45/79 | 110/200 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 56% | 57% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 21/26 | 25/39 | 34/45 | 80/110 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 64% | 76% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/25 | 24/31 | 18/34 | 60/90 | |
| % 2nd pts | 72% | 77% | 53% | 67% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/10 | 3/5 | 4/8 | 10/23 | |
| Converted % | 30% | 60% | 50% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 3/4 | 4/6 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 75% | 67% | 47% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Mexico City Challenger
- Luka PavlovicPavlovic – Rodrigo Pacheco MendezPacheco Mendez (2-6 6-4 7-61) – See score progression
- Stefano NapolitanoNapolitano – Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate (3-6 6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- James DuckworthDuckworth – Beibit ZhukayevZhukayev (4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Tibo ColsonColson – Juan Alejandro HernandezAlejandro Hernandez (7-65 2-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Nathaniel Lammons/Jack WithrowLammons/Jack Withrow – Miguel-Angel Reyes-Varela/Federico ZeballosReyes-Varela/Federico Zeballos (6-3 3-6 10-6) – See score progression
- Santiago Gonzalez/Ryan SeggermanGonzalez/Ryan Seggerman – Jody Maginley/Nicolas MejiaMaginley/Nicolas Mejia (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Luka PavlovicPavlovic – Rodrigo Pacheco MendezPacheco Mendez (2-6 6-4 7-6(1)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- James DuckworthDuckworth – Tibo ColsonColson (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Luka PavlovicPavlovic – Stefano NapolitanoNapolitano (1-1) – H2H and prediction
