Pablo Carreno-Busta and Roberto Carballes Baena will square off in the final of the Murcia Challenger for the 12th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 11:00 am on PISTA CENTRAL. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.46
Roberto Carballes Baena -> 2.49
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Roberto Carballes Baena
This will be the 12th time that Pablo Carreno-Busta and Roberto Carballes Baena face off. The head to head is 8-3 for Carreno-Busta (see full H2H stats), 7-1 on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Carballes Baena won 6-4 3-6 6-1 in the qualifications in Rotterdam back in February 2026.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
13 - 7win/loss
69
10
LLLWLLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28-19 | 8-9 | 18-7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 41-28 | 25-10 | 14-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 117, Pablo reached the final after beating Carlos Sanchez Jover 7-6(3) 6-1, Felix Gill 4-6 6-3 6-2, Andrea Pellegrino 6-3 6-4 and Kimmer Coppejans 6-2 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Coppejans (6-2 6-3). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 65 points vs Coppejans’s 45. The Spaniard was pretty aggressive to blast 21 winners.
Talking about the service games, Carreno-Busta couldn’t to score even 1 ace during the match and he committed only 1 double fault. Pablo Carreno-Busta conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Carreno-Busta put 64% of his first serves in, winning 70% (21/30) of the points behind his 1st serve and 82% (14/17) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Coppejans 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pablo has conceded 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.
ATP Murcia Challenger - Pablo Carreno-Busta's projected path
Carreno-Busta has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (263-177). 4-0 on clay in 2026. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Carreno-Busta has a compiled 93-61 record in the last years on clay.
Pablo’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in the Murcia Challenger.
The Spaniard has an overall 12-7 win-loss record in 2026, 4-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Murcia Challenger
Roberto Carballes Baena
10 - 9win/loss
245
49
LLWLLWLLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23-24 | 4-4 | 16-16 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 19-24 | 7-10 | 11-12 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-31 | 10-12 | 24-13 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 25-29 | 3-8 | 19-14 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 46-33 | 3-8 | 41-23 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 165, Carballes Baena got to the final after beating Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo 6-3 7-6(5), Mikhail Kukushkin 6-1 3-6 6-2, Sebastian Ofner 7-6(4) 2-6 6-1 and Jesper De Jong 2-6 6-4 6-4.
In the semifinal against De Jong, Roberto recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-4 6-4).During the match Carballes Baena scored less points (1) than De Jong. In fact, the world no. 117 won 88 points vs De Jong’s. That means that Carballes Baena was more focused during the important points. The Spaniard was quite aggressive to blast 49 winners.
Talking about serving, Carballes Baena blasted 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Roberto Carballes Baena lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Carballes Baena put 76% of his first serves in, winning 75% (49/65) of the points behind his 1st serve and 33% (7/21) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke De Jong twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carballes Baena has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points he played.
ATP Murcia Challenger - Roberto Carballes Baena's projected path
Carballes Baena’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in the Murcia Challenger.
Roberto has a composed 10-8 win-loss record in 2026, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Murcia Challenger
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2019. See his history.
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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Carreno-Busta | Carballes Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 83 | 102 |
| Pts | 295-230 | 339-325 |
| Total Points | 525 | 664 |
| Winners | 120 | 183 |
| %Winners | 41% | 54% |
Both Carreno-Busta and Carballes Baena played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Pablo Carreno-Busta surrendered 1 set, while Roberto Carballes Baena surrendered 3 sets. Carreno-Busta has played 2 set(s) less than Carballes Baena (9 vs 11). Therefore, Carreno-Busta played 19 games less than Carballes Baena. Pablo scored 120 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Roberto struck 183 winners (54%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Carreno-Busta | Carballes Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 3.8 |
| 1st in | 168/244 | 251/348 |
| %1st in | 69% | 72% |
| 1st pts | 120/168 | 183/251 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 51/76 | 38/97 |
| %2nd pts | 67% | 39% |
Carreno-Busta recorded 4 aces (1 per match). Carballes Baena managed to score 15 aces (3.8 per match). Carreno-Busta won 71% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 67% of the points. On the other side, Carballes Baena won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 39% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Carreno-Busta | Carballes Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 13 |
| Converted | 14/34 | 13/32 |
| % Converted | 41% | 41% |
| Conceded | 12 | 35 |
| Saved | 8 | 26 |
| % Saved | 67% | 74% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 9 |
Carreno-Busta broke his opponents 14 times with a 41% conversion rate. Pablo dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 13 times with a 41% conversion rate. Carballes Baena conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 74% of the break points that he conceded.
| Carreno-Busta | ||||||
| R1 Sanchez |
R2 Gill |
1/4 Pellegrino |
1/2 Coppejans |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-1 | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 27 | 19 | 17 | 83 | |
| pts | 72-58 | 94-78 | 64-49 | 65-45 | 295-230 | |
| Total points | 130 | 172 | 113 | 110 | 525 | |
| Winners | 28 | 45 | 26 | 21 | 120 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 48% | 41% | 32% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 43/63 | 61/81 | 34/53 | 30/47 | 168/244 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 75% | 64% | 64% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 28/43 | 45/61 | 26/34 | 21/30 | 120/168 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 74% | 76% | 70% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/20 | 12/20 | 13/19 | 14/17 | 51/76 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 60% | 68% | 82% | 67% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 3/10 | 3/8 | 4/7 | 14/34 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 30% | 38% | 57% | 41% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 1/2 | 3/4 | 3/3 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 50% | 75% | 100% | 65% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Carballes Baena | ||||||
| R1 Sanchez-Izquierdo |
R2 Kukushkin |
1/4 Ofner |
1/2 De Jong |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-65 | 6-1 3-6 6-2 | 7-64 2-6 6-1 | 2-6 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 24 | 28 | 28 | 102 | |
| pts | 81-74 | 85-74 | 85-88 | 88-89 | 339-325 | |
| Total points | 155 | 159 | 173 | 177 | 664 | |
| Winners | 48 | 35 | 51 | 49 | 183 | |
| %Winners | 59% | 41% | 60% | 56% | 54% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 67/85 | 52/83 | 67/94 | 65/86 | 251/348 | |
| % 1st in | 79% | 63% | 71% | 76% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 48/67 | 35/52 | 51/67 | 49/65 | 183/251 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 67% | 76% | 75% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/18 | 15/31 | 9/27 | 7/21 | 38/97 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 48% | 33% | 33% | 39% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 6/10 | 3/9 | 2/7 | 13/32 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 60% | 33% | 29% | 41% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 35 | |
| Saved | 10/11 | 6/9 | 6/9 | 4/6 | 26 | |
| Saved % | 91% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (3-8) – H2H and prediction
