Pablo Carreno-Busta and Andrea Pellegrino will square off in the quarter of the Murcia Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 4:00 pm on PISTA CENTRAL. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.45
Andrea Pellegrino -> 2.51
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Andrea Pellegrino
There is no head to head record between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Andrea Pellegrino since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
10 - 7win/loss
69
10
LLLWLLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28-19 | 8-9 | 18-7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 41-28 | 25-10 | 14-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 117, Pablo got to the quarter after defeating Carlos Sanchez Jover 7-6(3) 6-1 and Felix Gill 4-6 6-3 6-2.
In the 2nd round against Gill, Pablo recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-2). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 94 points vs Gill’s 78. Pablo was pretty aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Regarding the service games, Carreno-Busta fired 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Pablo Carreno-Busta was quite efficient on serve to win 74% (45/61) of his 1st serve and 60% (12/20) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Spaniard broke Gill 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has dropped 1 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points he played.
ATP Murcia Challenger - Pablo Carreno-Busta's projected path
Carreno-Busta has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (261-177). 2-0 on clay in 2026. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Carreno-Busta has an aggregate 91-61 record in the last years on clay.
Pablo has a composed 10-7 win-loss record in 2026, 2-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Murcia Challenger
Andrea Pellegrino
10 - 5win/loss
144
109
LWLLWLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30-22 | 1-3 | 28-18 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 37-24 | 0-2 | 37-18 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-30 | 0-2 | 24-26 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-29 | 2-2 | 28-26 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-28 | 0-3 | 27-20 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 128, Andrea reached the quarter after beating Pol Martin Tiffon 6-4 6-4 and Justin Engel 3-6 6-2 7-5.
In the 2nd round against Engel, Andrea recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-2 7-5). During the match Pellegrino scored 108 points vs Engel’s 97. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Talking about serving, Pellegrino made 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Andrea Pellegrino was extremely effective on serve to win 71% (32/45) of his 1st serve and 65% (20/31) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The Italian broke Engel 4 times after converting 17% of his break points (4/23).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Andrea has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
ATP Murcia Challenger - Andrea Pellegrino's projected path
Andrea has a compiled 10-5 win-loss record in 2026, 10-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Murcia Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2024. See his history.
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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Carreno-Busta | Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 47 | 49 |
| Pts | 166-136 | 179-155 |
| Total Points | 302 | 334 |
| Winners | 73 | 58 |
| %Winners | 44% | 32% |
Both Carreno-Busta and Pellegrino played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Pablo Carreno-Busta surrendered 1 set, while Andrea Pellegrino surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Carreno-Busta and Pellegrino have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Carreno-Busta played 2 games less than Pellegrino. Carreno-Busta scored 73 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian bagged 58 winners (32%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Carreno-Busta | Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 4 |
| 1st in | 104/144 | 80/133 |
| %1st in | 72% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 73/104 | 58/80 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 24/40 | 32/53 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 60% |
Carreno-Busta blasted 4 aces (2 per match). Pellegrino bagged 8 aces (4 per match). Carreno-Busta won 70% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Pellegrino won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Carreno-Busta | Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 8 |
| Converted | 7/19 | 8/34 |
| % Converted | 37% | 24% |
| Conceded | 5 | 11 |
| Saved | 2 | 7 |
| % Saved | 40% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 4 |
Carreno-Busta broke his opponents 7 times with a 37% conversion rate. The Spaniard surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 40% of the break points that he conceded. Andrea broke his opponents 8 times with a 24% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
| Carreno-Busta | ||||
| R1 Sanchez |
R2 Gill |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-1 | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 27 | 47 | |
| pts | 72-58 | 94-78 | 166-136 | |
| Total points | 130 | 172 | 302 | |
| Winners | 28 | 45 | 73 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 48% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 43/63 | 61/81 | 104/144 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 75% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 28/43 | 45/61 | 73/104 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 74% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/20 | 12/20 | 24/40 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 60% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 3/10 | 7/19 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 30% | 37% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 1/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 50% | 42% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Pellegrino | ||||
| R1 Martin |
R2 Engel |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 3-6 6-2 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 29 | 49 | |
| pts | 71-58 | 108-97 | 179-155 | |
| Total points | 129 | 205 | 334 | |
| Winners | 26 | 32 | 58 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 30% | 32% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 2 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 35/57 | 45/76 | 80/133 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 59% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 26/35 | 32/45 | 58/80 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 71% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/22 | 20/31 | 32/53 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 65% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/11 | 4/23 | 8/34 | |
| Converted % | 36% | 17% | 24% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 4 | 11 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 2/4 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 50% | 61% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Murcia Challenger
- Alexander Merino/Christoph NegrituMerino/Christoph Negritu – Andrew Paulson/Michael VrbenskyPaulson/Michael Vrbensky (6-3 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Kimmer CoppejansCoppejans – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian OfnerOfner – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Andrea PellegrinoPellegrino – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jesper De JongDe Jong – Pablo Llamas RuizLlamas Ruiz (1-0) – H2H and prediction
