Sebastian Ofner and Roberto Carballes Baena will play each other in the quarter of the Murcia Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 11:00 am on PISTA CENTRAL. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sebastian Ofner who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Sebastian Ofner is the pick to win this match.
Sebastian Ofner -> 1.56
Roberto Carballes Baena -> 2.24
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Sebastian Ofner vs. Roberto Carballes Baena
This will be the 3rd time that Sebastian Ofner and Roberto Carballes Baena square off. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Ofner won 6-3 ret. in the 1st round in Rome back in 2025.
Sebastian Ofner
13 - 5win/loss
121
37
LWWLLLLLLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29-25 | 1-8 | 17-14 | 10-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 20-19 | 0-5 | 16-10 | 0-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 19-25 | 6-8 | 8-13 | 1-0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 60-31 | 12-10 | 37-13 | 7-6 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 28-18 | 4-4 | 21-12 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 86, Sebastian got to the quarter after defeating Frederico Ferreira Silva 6-2 7-6(4) and Raul Brancaccio 6-0 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The Austrian had a good straight sets win against Brancaccio (6-0 6-4). During the match, Ofner scored 64 points vs Brancaccio’s 44. Sebastian was extremely aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Ofner recorded 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Sebastian Ofner conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 4 break points. Furthermore, Ofner put 55% of his first serves in, winning 89% (25/28) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (11/23) on the 2nd serve. The Austrian broke Brancaccio 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ofner hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 57% of the points he played.
ATP Murcia Challenger - Sebastian Ofner's projected path
Ofner has winning win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 54% of his matches (277-233). 2-0 on clay in 2026. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Ofner has an overall 133-106 match record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the year was conquering the title the St. Brieuc Challenger where he overcame Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the final 6-4 7-6(4) and the Thionville Challenger where he overcame Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the final 6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(7).
Ofner has a composed 13-5 win-loss record in 2026, 2-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Murcia Challenger
Roberto Carballes Baena
8 - 8win/loss
245
49
LLWLLWLLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23-24 | 4-4 | 16-16 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 19-24 | 7-10 | 11-12 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-31 | 10-12 | 24-13 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 25-29 | 3-8 | 19-14 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 46-33 | 3-8 | 41-23 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 165, Carballes Baena reached the quarter after defeating Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo 6-3 7-6(5) and Mikhail Kukushkin 6-1 3-6 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Carballes Baena defeated Kukushkin (6-1 3-6 6-2). During the match Carballes Baena scored 85 points vs Kukushkin’s 74. Roberto was exceptionally aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Talking about serving, Carballes Baena scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Roberto Carballes Baena lost the serve 3 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Carballes Baena put 63% of his first serves in, winning 67% (35/52) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (15/31) on the 2nd serve. Roberto broke Kukushkin 6 times after converting 60% of his break points (6/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carballes Baena has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
ATP Murcia Challenger - Roberto Carballes Baena's projected path
Roberto has an overall 8-8 win-loss record in 2026, 2-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Murcia Challenger
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2019. See his history.
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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ofner | Carballes Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 37 | 46 |
| Pts | 141-105 | 166-148 |
| Total Points | 246 | 314 |
| Winners | 51 | 83 |
| %Winners | 36% | 50% |
Both Ofner and Carballes Baena played 2 matches. At the moment, Roberto Carballes Baena lost 1 set while Sebastian Ofner hasn’t conceded a set so far. Ofner has played 1 set(s) less than Carballes Baena (4 vs 5). Therefore, Ofner played 9 games less than Carballes Baena. Ofner scored 51 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Roberto scored 83 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ofner | Carballes Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 1.5 |
| 1st in | 59/115 | 119/168 |
| %1st in | 51% | 71% |
| 1st pts | 51/59 | 83/119 |
| %1st pts | 86% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 29/56 | 22/49 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 45% |
Ofner recorded 14 aces (7 per match). Carballes Baena scored 3 aces (1.5 per match). Ofner won 86% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Carballes Baena won 70% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 45% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ofner | Carballes Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 8 |
| Converted | 7/18 | 8/16 |
| % Converted | 39% | 50% |
| Conceded | 8 | 20 |
| Saved | 7 | 16 |
| % Saved | 88% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
The Austrian broke his opponents 7 times with a 39% conversion rate. Sebastian conceded his serve once and he saved 88% of the break points that he conceded. Carballes Baena broke his opponents 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. Roberto conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.
| Ofner | ||||
| R1 Ferreira Silva |
R2 Brancaccio |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-64 | 6-0 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 16 | 37 | |
| pts | 77-61 | 64-44 | 141-105 | |
| Total points | 138 | 108 | 246 | |
| Winners | 26 | 25 | 51 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 39% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 8 | 6 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 31/64 | 28/51 | 59/115 | |
| % 1st in | 48% | 55% | 51% | |
| 1st pts | 26/31 | 25/28 | 51/59 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 89% | 86% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/33 | 11/23 | 29/56 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 48% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 4/9 | 7/18 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 44% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 4/4 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 100% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Carballes Baena | ||||
| R1 Sanchez-Izquierdo |
R2 Kukushkin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-65 | 6-1 3-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 24 | 46 | |
| pts | 81-74 | 85-74 | 166-148 | |
| Total points | 155 | 159 | 314 | |
| Winners | 48 | 35 | 83 | |
| %Winners | 59% | 41% | 50% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 67/85 | 52/83 | 119/168 | |
| % 1st in | 79% | 63% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 48/67 | 35/52 | 83/119 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 67% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/18 | 15/31 | 22/49 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 48% | 45% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 6 | 8 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 6/10 | 8/16 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 60% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 9 | 20 | |
| Saved | 10/11 | 6/9 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 91% | 67% | 79% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
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