Felix Auger-Aliassime and Adrian Mannarino will face off in the final of the Open Occitanie for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:00 pm on COURT PATRICE DOMINGUEZ. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Felix Auger-Aliassime who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Felix Auger-Aliassime is the pick to win this match.
Felix Auger-Aliassime -> 1.25
Adrian Mannarino -> 3.92
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Prediction and head to head Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Adrian Mannarino
This will be the 3rd time that Felix Auger-Aliassime and Adrian Mannarino face off. The head to head is 1-1 for Auger-Aliassime and Mannarino (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they competed against each other, Auger-Aliassime won 6-0 6-4 in the 2nd round in Madrid back in 2024.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33-16 | 10-7 | 8-5 | 8-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 50-25 | 24-10 | 3-6 | 17-5 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 32-25 | 6-10 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 23-19 | 13-13 | 1-3 | 9-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 60-27 | 14-9 | 11-7 | 31-7 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, Auger-Aliassime reached the final after defeating Stan Wawrinka 6-4 7-6(3), Arthur Fils 6-4 6-2 and Titouan Droguet 6-4 6-7(5) 6-1.
In the semifinal, Auger-Aliassime defeated Droguet (6-4 6-75 6-1). During the match, Auger-Aliassime scored 117 points vs Droguet’s 96. The Canadian was extremely aggressive to blast 58 winners.
Talking about the service games, Auger-Aliassime overpowered his opponent with 20 aces and he was pretty solid in conceding no double faults. Felix Auger-Aliassime was very effective on serve to win 81% (58/72) of his 1st serve and 60% (12/20) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Canadian broke Droguet 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Auger-Aliassime has conceded 1 set in this tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
ATP Montpellier - Felix Auger-Aliassime's projected path
Auger-Aliassime has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (362-214). 3-0 on indoor hard courts in 2026. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Auger-Aliassime has a composed 100-43 win-loss record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
Auger-Aliassime’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Montpellier.
The Canadian has an aggregate 4-2 win-loss record in 2026, 3-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Montpellier
Adrian Mannarino
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16-28 | 4-12 | 0-8 | 6-3 | 6-5 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 35-37 | 16-16 | 5-9 | 0-6 | 14-6 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 17-33 | 9-17 | 0-5 | 7-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-29 | 15-13 | 2-8 | 15-4 | 12-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 31-32 | 18-14 | 1-6 | 8-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 70, Adrian got to the final after defeating Pedro Martinez Portero 7-6(3) 6-1, Ugo Humbert 6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(4), Arthur Gea 5-7 6-4 6-4 and Martin Damm 1-6 6-3 6-4.
In the semifinal against Damm, Adrian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-3 6-4).During the match Mannarino scored less points (1) than Damm. In fact, the world no. 8 won 69 points vs Damm’s. That means that Mannarino was more focused during the important points. Adrian was very aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Talking about serving, Mannarino recorded 11 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Adrian Mannarino was exceptionally effective on serve to win 78% (36/46) of his 1st serve and 54% (15/28) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The French player was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Damm twice.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Adrian has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
ATP Montpellier - Adrian Mannarino's projected path
Adrian’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Montpellier.
The French player has an aggregate 4-4 win-loss record in 2026, 4-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Montpellier
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Auger-Aliassime | Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 71 | 113 |
| Pts | 254-200 | 347-322 |
| Total Points | 454 | 669 |
| Winners | 120 | 184 |
| %Winners | 47% | 53% |
Auger-Aliassime played 3 matches while Mannarino competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Felix Auger-Aliassime surrendered 1 set, while Adrian Mannarino surrendered 3 sets. Auger-Aliassime has played 4 set(s) less than Mannarino (7 vs 11). Therefore, Auger-Aliassime played 42 games less than Mannarino. Auger-Aliassime scored 120 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Adrian fired 184 winners (53%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Auger-Aliassime | Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 48 | 35 |
| Avg per match | 16 | 8.8 |
| 1st in | 144/197 | 230/347 |
| %1st in | 73% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 120/144 | 184/230 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 34/53 | 62/117 |
| %2nd pts | 64% | 53% |
Auger-Aliassime scored 48 aces (16 per match). Mannarino managed to score 35 aces (8.8 per match). Auger-Aliassime won 83% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Mannarino won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Auger-Aliassime | Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 8 |
| Converted | 8/25 | 8/19 |
| % Converted | 32% | 42% |
| Conceded | 7 | 18 |
| Saved | 6 | 14 |
| % Saved | 86% | 78% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
The Canadian broke his opponents 8 times with a 32% conversion rate. Auger-Aliassime lost his serve once and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. The French player broke his opponents 8 times with a 42% conversion rate. Mannarino conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded.
| Auger-Aliassime | |||||
| R2 Wawrinka |
1/4 Fils |
1/2 Droguet |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-63 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-4 6-75 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 18 | 30 | 71 | |
| pts | 78-68 | 59-36 | 117-96 | 254-200 | |
| Total points | 146 | 95 | 213 | 454 | |
| Winners | 37 | 25 | 58 | 120 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 42% | 50% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 16 | 12 | 20 | 48 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 45/65 | 27/40 | 72/92 | 144/197 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 68% | 78% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 37/45 | 25/27 | 58/72 | 120/144 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 93% | 81% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/20 | 11/13 | 12/20 | 34/53 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 85% | 60% | 64% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Converted | 2/10 | 3/5 | 3/10 | 8/25 | |
| Converted % | 20% | 60% | 30% | 32% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 0/0 | 3/3 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 75% | – | 100% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mannarino | ||||||
| R1 Martinez Portero |
R2 Humbert |
1/4 Gea |
1/2 Damm |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-1 | 6-74 6-3 7-64 | 5-7 6-4 6-4 | 1-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 35 | 32 | 26 | 113 | |
| pts | 69-51 | 117-109 | 92-92 | 69-70 | 347-322 | |
| Total points | 120 | 226 | 184 | 139 | 669 | |
| Winners | 36 | 63 | 49 | 36 | 184 | |
| %Winners | 52% | 54% | 53% | 52% | 53% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 14 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 35 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 44/65 | 75/115 | 65/93 | 46/74 | 230/347 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 65% | 70% | 62% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 36/44 | 63/75 | 49/65 | 36/46 | 184/230 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 84% | 75% | 78% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/21 | 21/40 | 13/28 | 15/28 | 62/117 | |
| % 2nd pts | 62% | 53% | 46% | 54% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Converted | 2/3 | 1/9 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 8/19 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 11% | 60% | 100% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 18 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 9/9 | 1/3 | 2/4 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 33% | 50% | 94% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (1-1) – H2H and prediction
