Jay Clarke and Mert Alkaya will face off in the final of the Islamabad Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on AQEEL KHAN CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jay Clarke who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jay Clarke is the pick to win this match.
Jay Clarke -> 1.47
Mert Alkaya -> 2.46

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Prediction and head to head Jay Clarke vs. Mert Alkaya

There is no head to head record between Jay Clarke and Mert Alkaya since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.

Jay Clarke

Ranked no. 200, the Brit got to the final after beating Dinko Dinev 6-2 6-7(1) 6-2, Vadym Ursu 6-3 4-6 7-6(6) and Zach Stephens 7-5 6-3.

In the semifinal, The Brit had a good straight sets win against Stephens (7-5 6-3). During the match, Clarke scored 70 points vs Stephens’s 48. Clarke was pretty aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about the service games, Clarke fired 7 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Jay Clarke was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 88% (29/33) of his 1st serve and 78% (18/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Jay broke Stephens twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Jay has dropped 2 set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.

Clarke has positive match record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (354-243). 29-9 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Clarke has an aggregate 134-86 record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the year was winning the title the Skopje Challenger where he beat Nerman Fatic in the final 6-2 6-3.

Clarke has an aggregate 61-30 win-loss record in 2025, 29-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Islamabad Challenger

Clarke has never competed in this tournament before.

Mert Alkaya

Ranked no. 473, Mert reached the final after defeating Samir Iftikhar 6-2 6-2

, Gian Luca Tanner 5-7 6-3 6-4, Elias Ymer 7-6(8) 4-6 6-0 and Denis Yevseyev 6-7(7) 6-1 6-3.

In the semifinal against Yevseyev, Alkaya recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-7⁷ 6-1 6-3). During the match Alkaya scored 110 points vs Yevseyev’s 85. Mert was very aggressive to blast 34 winners.

About the serving games, Alkaya recorded 9 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Mert Alkaya lost the serve once and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Alkaya put 57% of his first serves in, winning 68% (34/50) of the points behind his 1st serve and 71% (27/38) on the 2nd serve. The Turk broke Yevseyev 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Turk has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

Mert’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in M15 Monastir and M15 Turku.

Alkaya has an aggregate 55-23 win-loss record in 2025, 55-23 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Clarke	Alkaya
Match played	3	4
Tot Set	8	11
Tot Games	82	105
Pts	264-221	372-314
Total Points	485	686
Winners	102	132
%Winners	39%	35%

Clarke played 3 matches while Alkaya competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jay Clarke dropped 2 sets, while Mert Alkaya surrendered 3 sets. Clarke has played 3 set(s) less than Alkaya (8 vs 11). Therefore, Clarke played 23 games less than Alkaya. Clarke scored 102 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Alkaya managed to score 132 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Clarke	Alkaya
Aces	16	33
Avg per match	5.3	8.3
1st in	128/233	177/338
%1st in	55%	52%
1st pts	102/128	132/177
%1st pts	80%	75%
2nd pts	61/105	88/161
%2nd pts	58%	55%

Clarke managed to score 16 aces (5.3 per match). Alkaya bagged 33 aces (8.3 per match). Clarke won 80% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Alkaya won 75% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Clarke	Alkaya
Won	12	19
Converted	12/26	19/37
% Converted	46%	51%
Conceded	12	26
Saved	7	18
% Saved	58%	69%
Times Broken	5	8

Clarke broke his opponents 12 times with a 46% conversion rate. The Brit conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 58% of the break points that he conceded. Alkaya broke his opponents 19 times with a 51% conversion rate. Alkaya conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.

Clarke
	R2 Dinev	1/4 Ursu	1/2 Stephens	Total
Score	6-2 6-71 6-2	6-3 4-6 7-66	7-5 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	2	8
Tot Games	29	32	21	82
pts	95-76	99-97	70-48	264-221
Total points	171	196	118	485
Winners	32	41	29	102
%Winners	34%	41%	41%	39%
SERVE
Aces	6	3	7	16
Double Faults	2	3	1	6
1st in	36/80	59/97	33/56	128/233
% 1st in	45%	61%	59%	55%
1st pts	32/36	41/59	29/33	102/128
% 1st pts	89%	69%	88%	80%
2nd pts	25/44	18/38	18/23	61/105
% 2nd pts	57%	47%	78%	58%
Breaks
Won	5	5	2	12
Converted	5/14	5/8	2/4	12/26
Converted %	36%	63%	50%	46%
Conceded	3	7	2	12
Saved	2/3	3/7	2/2	7
Saved %	67%	43%	100%	70%
Times Broken	1	4	0	5

Alkaya
	R1 Iftikhar	R2 Luca	1/4 Ymer	1/2 Yevseyev	Total
Score	6-2 6-2	5-7 6-3 6-4	7-68 4-6 6-0	6-77 6-1 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	3	3	11
Tot Games	16	31	29	29	105
pts	58-38	101-94	103-97	110-85	372-314
Total points	96	195	200	195	686
Winners	18	37	43	34	132
%Winners	31%	37%	42%	31%	35%
SERVE
Aces	2	14	8	9	33
Double Faults	1	4	3	1	9
1st in	23/46	50/101	54/103	50/88	177/338
% 1st in	50%	50%	52%	57%	52%
1st pts	18/23	37/50	43/54	34/50	132/177
% 1st pts	78%	74%	80%	68%	75%
2nd pts	13/23	24/51	24/49	27/38	88/161
% 2nd pts	57%	47%	49%	71%	55%
Breaks
Won	5	5	4	5	19
Converted	5/11	5/8	4/8	5/10	19/37
Converted %	45%	63%	50%	50%	51%
Conceded	3	8	11	4	26
Saved	2/3	4/8	9/11	3/4	18
Saved %	67%	50%	82%	75%	91%
Times Broken	1	4	2	1	8

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Mert AlkayaAlkaya – Jay ClarkeClarke (0-0) – H2H and prediction