Francesco Maestrelli and Marko Topo will square off in the final of the Bergamo Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Francesco Maestrelli who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Francesco Maestrelli is the pick to win this match.
Francesco Maestrelli -> 1.8
Marko Topo -> 1.88

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Prediction and head to head Francesco Maestrelli vs. Marko Topo

This will be the 2^nd time that Francesco Maestrelli and Marko Topo fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Maestrelli (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on indoor hard courts.

The last time that they played each other, Maestrelli won 2-6 6-4 7-5 in the quarter in the Brasov Challenger back in July 2025.

Francesco Maestrelli

Ranked no. 157, the Italian reached the final after beating Emil Ruusuvuori 6-4 3-6 7-6(3), Buvaysar Gadamauri 6-3 6-3, Stefano Napolitano 6-3 7-6(7) and Justin Engel 6-4 6-2.

In the semifinal, Francesco had a good straight sets win against Engel (6-4 6-2). During the match, Maestrelli scored 65 points vs Engel’s 47. Francesco was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about the service games, Maestrelli bagged 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Francesco Maestrelli was very effective on serve to win 78% (29/37) of his 1st serve and 73% (8/11) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Maestrelli broke Engel 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Francesco has dropped 1 set in this event to conquer 54% of the points he played.

Maestrelli has a winning win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 55% of his matches (194-157). 8-3 on indoor hard courts in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Maestrelli has a compiled26-23 record in the last 8 years on indoor hard courts.

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Francavilla Challenger where he overcame Valentin Vacherot in the final 6-4 6-4 and the Brasov Challenger where he defeated Luka Pavlovic in the final 7-6(7) 6-4.

The Italian has an overall 45-29 win-loss record in 2025, 8-3 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Bergamo Challenger

Marko Topo

Ranked no. 282, the Serbian got to the final after beating Jan Choinski 7-6(3) 6-4, Beibit Zhukayev 6-4 7-6(4)

, Francesco Passaro 7-5 6-3 and Stefano Travaglia 6-3 6-4.

In the semifinal, Topo had a good straight sets win against Travaglia (6-3 6-4). During the match Topo scored 64 points vs Travaglia’s 52. Marko was quite aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Talking about serving, Topo blasted 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Marko Topo was very efficient on serve to win 82% (32/39) of his 1st serve and 52% (12/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Topo broke Travaglia twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Serbian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

The Serbian’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in M25 Faro and M25 Kursumlijska Banja.

Marko has a composed 45-22 win-loss record in 2025, 8-5 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Maestrelli	Topo
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	8
Tot Games	90	86
Pts	318-268	280-240
Total Points	586	520
Winners	146	138
%Winners	46%	49%

Both Maestrelli and Topo played 4 matches. At the moment, Francesco Maestrelli dropped 1 set while Marko Topo hasn’t conceded a set so far. Maestrelli has played 1 set more than Topo (9 vs 8). Therefore, Maestrelli played 4 games more than Topo. Francesco scored 146 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, The Serbian managed to score 138 winners (49%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Maestrelli	Topo
Aces	39	37
Avg per match	9.8	9.3
1st in	190/292	167/270
%1st in	65%	62%
1st pts	146/190	138/167
%1st pts	77%	83%
2nd pts	55/102	58/103
%2nd pts	54%	56%

Maestrelli struck 39 aces (9.8 per match). Topo bagged 37 aces (9.3 per match). Maestrelli won 77% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Topo won 83% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Maestrelli	Topo
Won	11	8
Converted	11/24	8/21
% Converted	46%	38%
Conceded	22	11
Saved	18	10
% Saved	82%	91%
Times Broken	4	1

The Italian broke his opponents 11 times with a 46% conversion rate. The Italian lost his serve 4 times and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded. Marko broke his opponents 8 times with a 38% conversion rate. Topo conceded his serve once and he saved 91% of the break points that he conceded.

Maestrelli
	R1 Ruusuvuori	R2 Gadamauri	1/4 Napolitano	1/2 Engel	Total
Score	6-4 3-6 7-63	6-3 6-3	6-3 7-67	6-4 6-2
Tot Set	3	2	2	2	9
Tot Games	32	18	22	18	90
pts	105-109	70-51	78-61	65-47	318-268
Total points	214	121	139	112	586
Winners	48	29	40	29	146
%Winners	46%	41%	51%	45%	46%
SERVE
Aces	12	4	17	6	39
Double Faults	6	7	2	2	17
1st in	67/110	39/69	47/65	37/48	190/292
% 1st in	61%	57%	72%	77%	65%
1st pts	48/67	29/39	40/47	29/37	146/190
% 1st pts	72%	74%	85%	78%	77%
2nd pts	22/43	13/30	12/18	8/11	55/102
% 2nd pts	51%	43%	67%	73%	54%
Breaks
Won	2	5	1	3	11
Converted	2/6	5/7	1/3	3/8	11/24
Converted %	33%	71%	33%	38%	46%
Conceded	10	11	1	0	22
Saved	8/10	9/11	1/1	0/0	18
Saved %	80%	82%	100%	–	66%
Times Broken	2	2	0	0	4

Topo
	R1 Choinski	R2 Zhukayev	1/4 Passaro	1/2 Travaglia	Total
Score	7-63 6-4	6-4 7-64	7-5 6-3	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	23	23	21	19	86
pts	79-71	68-61	69-56	64-52	280-240
Total points	150	129	125	116	520
Winners	40	35	31	32	138
%Winners	51%	51%	45%	50%	49%
SERVE
Aces	12	10	7	8	37
Double Faults	1	1	4	1	7
1st in	48/76	41/65	39/67	39/62	167/270
% 1st in	63%	63%	58%	63%	62%
1st pts	40/48	35/41	31/39	32/39	138/167
% 1st pts	83%	85%	79%	82%	83%
2nd pts	15/28	16/24	15/28	12/23	58/103
% 2nd pts	54%	67%	54%	52%	56%
Breaks
Won	1	1	4	2	8
Converted	1/6	1/2	4/9	2/4	8/21
Converted %	17%	50%	44%	50%	38%
Conceded	2	1	6	2	11
Saved	2/2	1/1	5/6	2/2	10
Saved %	100%	100%	83%	100%	96%
Times Broken	0	0	1	0	1

Upcoming matches in the draw