Jay Clarke and Toby Samuel will fight against each other in the final of the Soma Bay Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 2:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Toby Samuel who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Toby Samuel is the pick to win this match.
Toby Samuel -> 1.65
Jay Clarke -> 2.08

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Jay Clarke vs. Toby Samuel

There is no head to head record between Jay Clarke and Toby Samuel since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Jay Clarke

Ranked no. 213, the Brit reached the final after beating Fares Zakaria 6-1 6-3, Denis Yevseyev 6-4 4-6 6-4, Radu Albot 6-2 6-7(3) 6-2 and Mathys Erhard 6-1 6-3.

In the semifinal, Clarke had a good straight sets win against Erhard (6-1 6-3). During the match, Clarke scored 60 points vs Erhard’s 33. Clarke was exceptionally aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Talking about the service games, Clarke was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault. Jay Clarke lost the serve once and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Clarke put 67% of his first serves in, winning 82% (27/33) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (6/16) on the 2nd serve. The Brit broke Erhard 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Brit has lost 2 set in this tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Clarke has winning record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (351-242). 26-8 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Clarke has an aggregate 131-85 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the season was winning the title the Skopje Challenger where he beat Nerman Fatic in the final 6-2 6-3.

Jay has a compiled 58-29 win-loss record in 2025, 26-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Soma Bay Challenger

The Brit has never competed in this tournament before.

Toby Samuel

Ranked no. 436, Samuel got to the final after defeating Ilia Simakin 6-4 6-4, Peter Fajta 6-3 7-6(4), Alexandr Binda 6-2 6-3 and Charlie Robertson 6-1 6-1.

In the semifinal, Samuel had a good straight sets win against Robertson (6-1 6-1). During the match Samuel scored 59 points vs Robertson’s 33. Toby was exceptionally aggressive to blast 21 winners.

Talking about serving, Samuel bagged 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Toby Samuel was quite effective on serve to win 72% (21/29) of his 1st serve and 71% (10/14) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Toby broke Robertson 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Brit hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.

Toby’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in M25 Aldershot,M15 Hurghada,M15 Malta and M15 Sharm ElSheikh.

Toby has an aggregate 51-16 win-loss record in 2025, 43-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Clarke	Samuel
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	10	8
Tot Games	91	73
Pts	354-286	284-216
Total Points	640	500
Winners	128	112
%Winners	36%	39%

Both Clarke and Samuel played 4 matches. At the moment, Jay Clarke lost 2 sets while Toby Samuel hasn’t dropped a set so far. Clarke has played 2 sets more than Samuel (10 vs 8). Therefore, Clarke played 18 games more than Samuel. Clarke scored 128 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Samuel scored 112 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Clarke	Samuel
Aces	9	12
Avg per match	2.3	3
1st in	189/309	162/235
%1st in	61%	69%
1st pts	128/189	112/162
%1st pts	68%	69%
2nd pts	60/120	51/73
%2nd pts	50%	70%

Clarke struck 9 aces (2.3 per match). Samuel recorded 12 aces (3 per match). Clarke won 68% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Samuel won 69% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 70% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Clarke	Samuel
Won	22	14
Converted	22/51	14/36
% Converted	43%	39%
Conceded	28	14
Saved	19	11
% Saved	68%	79%
Times Broken	9	3

The Brit broke his opponents 22 times with a 43% conversion rate. Clarke dropped his serve 9 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded. Samuel broke his opponents 14 times with a 39% conversion rate. Samuel conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded.

Clarke
	R1 Zakaria	R2 Yevseyev	1/4 Albot	1/2 Erhard	Total
Score	6-1 6-3	6-4 4-6 6-4	6-2 6-73 6-2	6-1 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	3	2	10
Tot Games	16	30	29	16	91
pts	64-46	111-104	119-103	60-33	354-286
Total points	110	215	222	93	640
Winners	24	35	42	27	128
%Winners	38%	32%	35%	45%	36%
SERVE
Aces	2	4	3	0	9
Double Faults	2	4	4	1	11
1st in	35/56	56/91	65/113	33/49	189/309
% 1st in	63%	62%	58%	67%	61%
1st pts	24/35	35/56	42/65	27/33	128/189
% 1st pts	69%	63%	65%	82%	68%
2nd pts	11/21	19/35	24/48	6/16	60/120
% 2nd pts	52%	54%	50%	38%	50%
Breaks
Won	5	5	7	5	22
Converted	5/6	5/19	7/18	5/8	22/51
Converted %	83%	26%	39%	63%	43%
Conceded	4	7	13	4	28
Saved	3/4	3/7	10/13	3/4	19
Saved %	75%	43%	77%	75%	68%
Times Broken	1	4	3	1	9

Samuel
	R1 Simakin	R2 Fajta	1/4 Binda	1/2 Robertson	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	6-3 7-64	6-2 6-3	6-1 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	20	22	17	14	73
pts	72-65	86-72	67-46	59-33	284-216
Total points	137	158	113	92	500
Winners	28	36	27	21	112
%Winners	39%	42%	40%	36%	39%
SERVE
Aces	1	3	5	3	12
Double Faults	3	2	0	1	6
1st in	44/65	55/78	34/49	29/43	162/235
% 1st in	68%	71%	69%	67%	69%
1st pts	28/44	36/55	27/34	21/29	112/162
% 1st pts	64%	65%	79%	72%	69%
2nd pts	14/21	16/23	11/15	10/14	51/73
% 2nd pts	67%	70%	73%	71%	70%
Breaks
Won	3	3	3	5	14
Converted	3/10	3/9	3/8	5/9	14/36
Converted %	30%	33%	38%	56%	39%
Conceded	3	8	1	2	14
Saved	2/3	6/8	1/1	2/2	11
Saved %	67%	75%	100%	100%	86%
Times Broken	1	2	0	0	3

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jay ClarkeClarke – (0-0) – H2H and prediction