Lorenzo Giustino and Gianluca Cadenasso will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Montemar Challenger for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 12:30 pm on IVAN NAVARRO COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Lorenzo Giustino who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Lorenzo Giustino is the pick to win this match.
Lorenzo Giustino -> 1.533
Gianluca Cadenasso -> 2.3

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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Giustino vs. Gianluca Cadenasso

This will be the 3^rd time that Lorenzo Giustino and Gianluca Cadenasso fight against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Giustino (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.

The last time that they squared off, Giustino won 6-4 6-4

in the 2^nd round in M25 Santa Margherita di Pula back in 2024.

Lorenzo Giustino

Ranked no. 220, the Italian got to the semifinal after defeating Filippo Moroni 6-4 6-1, Miguel Damas 6-3 6-4 and Ivan Gakhov 6-0 5-7 6-2.

In the quarter, Giustino defeated Gakhov (6-0 5-7 6-2). During the match, Giustino scored 88 points vs Gakhov’s 69. Lorenzo was pretty aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Regarding the service games, Giustino scored 4 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Lorenzo Giustino lost the serve 4 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Giustino put 61% of his first serves in, winning 60% (30/50) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (16/32) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Gakhov 8 times after converting 42% of his break points (8/19).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Giustino has lost 1 set in this tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

Giustino has winning win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 52% of his matches (362-329). 46-21 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Giustino has an overall 280-216 win-loss record in the last years on clay.

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Monastir Challenger where he overcame Petr Brunclik in the final 7-5 6-0.

Giustino has an aggregate 57-30 win-loss record in 2025, 46-21 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Montemar Challenger

The Italian has never competed in this tournament before.

Gianluca Cadenasso

Ranked no. 395, the Italian got to the semifinal after beating Gerard Campana Lee 6-3 6-7(2) 6-1, Carlos Lopez Montagud 6-4 6-1, Daniel Michalski 6-4 2-6 6-4, Clement Tabur 7-5 7-5 and Gabriele Piraino 6-0 6-2.

In the quarter, Cadenasso had a good straight sets win against Piraino (6-0 6-2). During the match Cadenasso scored 53 points vs Piraino’s 25. Gianluca was quite aggressive to blast 14 winners.

Talking about serving, Cadenasso scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 2 double faults. Gianluca Cadenasso lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Cadenasso put 53% of his first serves in, winning 70% (14/20) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (9/18) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Piraino 7 times after converting 70% of his break points (7/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

The Italian’s best result of the year was getting to the final in M15 Store and M25 Santa Margherita di Pula.

The Italian has a composed 47-22 win-loss record in 2025, 42-18 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Giustino	Cadenasso
Match played	3	5
Tot Set	7	12
Tot Games	62	112
Pts	214-153	392-329
Total Points	367	721
Winners	75	141
%Winners	35%	36%

Giustino played 3 matches while Cadenasso competed in 5 matches. Cadenasso started his run from the qualifications while Giustino had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Lorenzo Giustino lost 1 set, while Gianluca Cadenasso surrendered 2 sets. Giustino has played 5 set(s) less than Cadenasso (7 vs 12). Therefore, Giustino played 50 games less than Cadenasso. Giustino scored 75 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Gianluca managed to score 141 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Giustino	Cadenasso
Aces	8	12
Avg per match	2.7	2.4
1st in	108/187	228/379
%1st in	58%	60%
1st pts	75/108	141/228
%1st pts	69%	62%
2nd pts	44/79	78/151
%2nd pts	56%	52%

Giustino scored 8 aces (2.7 per match). Cadenasso managed to score 12 aces (2.4 per match). Giustino won 69% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Cadenasso won 62% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Giustino	Cadenasso
Won	16	30
Converted	16/32	30/52
% Converted	50%	58%
Conceded	10	37
Saved	3	21
% Saved	30%	57%
Times Broken	7	16

Lorenzo broke his opponents 16 times with a 50% conversion rate. Giustino dropped his serve 7 times and he saved 30% of the break points that he conceded. Gianluca broke his opponents 30 times with a 58% conversion rate. Cadenasso conceded his serve 16 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.

Giustino
	R1 Moroni	R2 Damas	1/4 Gakhov	Total
Score	6-4 6-1	6-3 6-4	6-0 5-7 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	17	19	26	62
pts	59-33	67-51	88-69	214-153
Total points	92	118	157	367
Winners	17	28	30	75
%Winners	29%	42%	34%	35%
SERVE
Aces	1	3	4	8
Double Faults	4	2	4	10
1st in	18/46	40/59	50/82	108/187
% 1st in	39%	68%	61%	58%
1st pts	17/18	28/40	30/50	75/108
% 1st pts	94%	70%	60%	69%
2nd pts	17/28	11/19	16/32	44/79
% 2nd pts	61%	58%	50%	56%
Breaks
Won	4	4	8	16
Converted	4/5	4/8	8/19	16/32
Converted %	80%	50%	42%	50%
Conceded	1	3	6	10
Saved	0/1	1/3	2/6	3
Saved %	0%	33%	33%	22%
Times Broken	1	2	4	7

Cadenasso
	Q1 Campana	Q3 Lopez	R1 Michalski	R2 Tabur	1/4 Piraino	Total
Score	6-3 6-72 6-1	6-4 6-1	6-4 2-6 6-4	7-5 7-5	6-0 6-2
Tot Set	3	2	3	2	2	12
Tot Games	29	17	28	24	14	112
pts	98-81	62-50	89-87	90-86	53-25	392-329
Total points	179	112	176	176	78	721
Winners	43	19	28	37	14	141
%Winners	44%	31%	31%	41%	26%	36%
SERVE
Aces	0	1	7	3	1	12
Double Faults	3	1	6	3	2	15
1st in	66/98	33/56	46/85	63/102	20/38	228/379
% 1st in	67%	59%	54%	62%	53%	60%
1st pts	43/66	19/33	28/46	37/63	14/20	141/228
% 1st pts	65%	58%	61%	59%	70%	62%
2nd pts	15/32	13/23	19/39	22/39	9/18	78/151
% 2nd pts	47%	57%	49%	56%	50%	52%
Breaks
Won	7	6	6	4	7	30
Converted	7/12	6/14	6/10	4/6	7/10	30/52
Converted %	58%	43%	60%	67%	70%	58%
Conceded	7	5	9	14	2	37
Saved	3/7	3/5	3/9	12/14	0/2	21
Saved %	43%	60%	33%	86%	0%	74%
Times Broken	4	2	6	2	2	16

Tennis Scores in Montemar Challenger

• Zdenek KolarKolar – Marco TrungellitiTrungelliti (3-6 6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Lorenzo GiustinoGiustino – (2-0) – H2H and prediction