Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will clash against each other in the final of the the Nitto ATP Finals for the 17^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 6:00 pm on Inalpi Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.58
Carlos Alcaraz -> 2.46

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner

This will be the 17^th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner play each other. The head to head is 11-5 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on indoor hard courts.

The last time that they locked horns, Alcaraz won 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4 in the final in at the U.S. Open back in September 2025.

Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner – U.S. Open 07-September-2025

Carlos Alcaraz

Currently world no. 1 Carlos reached the final after beating Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 6-1, Taylor Fritz 6-7(2) 7-5 6-3, Alex De Minaur 7-6(5) 6-2 and Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-2 6-4.

In the semifinal, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Auger-Aliassime (6-2 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 62 points vs Auger-Aliassime’s 46. Alcaraz was quite aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Regarding the service games, Alcaraz scored 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Carlos Alcaraz was quite efficient on serve to win 82% (31/38) of his 1st serve and 54% (7/13) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Spaniard broke Auger-Aliassime 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Carlos has surrendered 1 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 8 years having won 81% of his matches (358-84). 10-2 on indoor hard courts in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has an aggregate35-15 win-loss record in the last 8 years on indoor hard courts.

His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2 and in Cincinnati where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 5-0 ret. and at the U.S. Open where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4 and in Tokyo where he beat Taylor Fritz in the final 6-4 6-4.

The Spaniard has a compiled 71-8 win-loss record in 2025, 10-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals

Jannik Sinner

Ranked no. 2, Jannik got to the final after beating Felix Auger-Aliassime 7-5 6-1, Alexander Zverev 6-4 6-3, Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6(3) and Alex De Minaur 7-5 6-2.

In the semifinal, The Italian had a good straight sets win against De Minaur (7-5 6-2). During the match Sinner scored 84 points vs De Minaur’s 63. Sinner was pretty aggressive to blast 37 winners.

About the serving games, Sinner recorded 7 aces and he was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Jannik Sinner conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 4 break points. Furthermore, Sinner put 75% of his first serves in, winning 84% (37/44) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (7/15) on the 2nd serve. Jannik broke De Minaur 3 times after converting 23% of his break points (3/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title at the Australian Open where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3 and at the Wimbledon where he defeated Carlos Alcaraz in the final 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 and in Beijing where he overcame Learner Tien in the final 6-2 6-2 and in Vienna where he beat Alexander Zverev in the final 3-6 6-3 7-5 and in Paris where he overcame Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final 6-4 7-6(4).

Sinner has a compiled 57-6 win-loss record in 2025, 14-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals

Previously, he won this tournament once in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Sinner
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	8
Tot Games	90	80
Pts	324-264	291-227
Total Points	588	518
Winners	152	147
%Winners	47%	51%

Both Alcaraz and Sinner played 4 matches. At the moment, Carlos Alcaraz dropped 1 set while Jannik Sinner hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set more than Sinner (9 vs 8). Therefore, Alcaraz played 10 games more than Sinner. Carlos scored 152 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Jannik made 147 winners (51%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Sinner
Aces	21	33
Avg per match	5.3	8.3
1st in	204/303	175/241
%1st in	67%	73%
1st pts	152/204	147/175
%1st pts	75%	84%
2nd pts	54/99	32/66
%2nd pts	55%	48%

Alcaraz bagged 21 aces (5.3 per match). Sinner managed to score 33 aces (8.3 per match). Alcaraz won 75% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Sinner won 84% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Sinner
Won	13	10
Converted	13/31	10/31
% Converted	42%	32%
Conceded	17	12
Saved	14	12
% Saved	82%	100%
Times Broken	3	0

The Spaniard broke his opponents 13 times with a 42% conversion rate. The Spaniard surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded. Sinner broke his opponents 10 times with a 32% conversion rate. Jannik was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 12 break points.

Alcaraz
	Round Robin Musetti	Round Robin Fritz	Round Robin De Minaur	1/2 Auger-Aliassime	Total
Score	6-4 6-1	6-72 7-5 6-3	7-65 6-2	6-2 6-4
Tot Set	2	3	2	2	9
Tot Games	17	34	21	18	90
pts	64-44	127-115	71-59	62-46	324-264
Total points	108	242	130	108	588
Winners	30	61	30	31	152
%Winners	47%	48%	42%	50%	47%
SERVE
Aces	2	9	5	5	21
Double Faults	0	2	3	1	6
1st in	36/52	82/128	48/72	38/51	204/303
% 1st in	69%	64%	67%	75%	67%
1st pts	30/36	61/82	30/48	31/38	152/204
% 1st pts	83%	74%	63%	82%	75%
2nd pts	9/16	24/46	14/24	7/13	54/99
% 2nd pts	56%	52%	58%	54%	55%
Breaks
Won	3	3	4	3	13
Converted	3/5	3/11	4/7	3/8	13/31
Converted %	60%	27%	57%	38%	42%
Conceded	2	9	5	1	17
Saved	2/2	8/9	3/5	1/1	14
Saved %	100%	89%	60%	100%	87%
Times Broken	0	1	2	0	3

Sinner
	Round Robin Shelton	Round Robin Zverev	Round Robin Auger-Aliassime	1/2 De Minaur	Total
Score	6-3 7-63	6-4 6-3	7-5 6-1	7-5 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	22	19	19	20	80
pts	69-60	65-55	73-49	84-63	291-227
Total points	129	120	122	147	518
Winners	38	40	32	37	147
%Winners	55%	62%	44%	44%	51%
SERVE
Aces	11	12	3	7	33
Double Faults	0	0	1	0	1
1st in	47/63	48/68	36/51	44/59	175/241
% 1st in	75%	71%	71%	75%	73%
1st pts	38/47	40/48	32/36	37/44	147/175
% 1st pts	81%	83%	89%	84%	84%
2nd pts	9/16	7/20	9/15	7/15	32/66
% 2nd pts	56%	35%	60%	47%	48%
Breaks
Won	2	2	3	3	10
Converted	2/4	2/4	3/10	3/13	10/31
Converted %	50%	50%	30%	23%	32%
Conceded	1	7	0	4	12
Saved	1/1	7/7	0/0	4/4	12
Saved %	100%	100%	–	100%	75%
Times Broken	0	0	0	0	0

Upcoming matches in the draw

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