Carlos Alcaraz and Felix Auger-Aliassime will clash against each other in the semifinal of the the Nitto ATP Finals for the 8^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 8:30 pm on Centre Court. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.22
Felix Auger-Aliassime -> 4.55

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime

This will be the 8^th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Felix Auger-Aliassime clash against each other. The head to head is 4-3 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but Auger-Aliassime has a winning record of 2-0 on indoor hard courts.

The last time that they played each other, Alcaraz won 6-1 6-1 in the semifinal in Paris back in 2024.

Carlos Alcaraz

Currently world no. 1 Carlos reached the semifinal after defeating Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 6-1, Taylor Fritz 6-7(2) 7-5 6-3 and Alex De Minaur 7-6(5) 6-2.

In the previous match, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Musetti (6-4 6-1). During the match, Alcaraz scored 64 points vs Musetti’s 44. The Spaniard was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alcaraz scored 2 aces and he was pretty steady in conceding no double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was pretty efficient on serve to win 83% (30/36) of his 1st serve and 56% (9/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Alcaraz broke Musetti 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alcaraz has conceded 1 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 8 years having won 81% of his matches (357-84). 9-2 on indoor hard courts in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has an aggregate34-15 match record in the last 8 years on indoor hard courts.

His best result of the season was winning the title in Rotterdam where he overcame Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he overcame Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he beat Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2 and in Cincinnati where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 5-0 ret. and at the U.S. Open where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4 and in Tokyo where he beat Taylor Fritz in the final 6-4 6-4.

Carlos has a composed 70-8 win-loss record in 2025, 9-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranked no. 8, Auger-Aliassime reached the semifinal after defeating Jannik Sinner 7-5 6-1, Alexander Zverev 6-4 7-6(4) and Ben Shelton 4-6 7-6(7) 7-5.

In the previous match, Auger-Aliassime had a good straight sets win against Zverev (6-4 7-6⁴

). During the match Auger-Aliassime scored 79 points vs Zverev’s 72. Auger-Aliassime was pretty aggressive to blast 39 winners.

Talking about serving, Auger-Aliassime managed to score 11 aces and he was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Felix Auger-Aliassime was very efficient on serve to win 74% (39/53) of his 1st serve and 65% (13/20) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Felix broke Zverev once after converting 14% of his break points (1/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Canadian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

His best result of the current season was winning the title in Adelaide where he defeated Sebastian Korda in the final 6-3 3-6 6-1 and in Montpellier where he overcame Aleksandar Kovacevic in the final 6-2 6-7(7) 7-6(2) and in Brussels where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-6(2) 6-7(6) 6-2.

Auger-Aliassime has an overall 50-24 win-loss record in 2025, 17-4 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals

Previously, his best result was reaching the Round Robin in 2022. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Auger-Aliassime
Match played	3	2
Tot Set	7	5
Tot Games	72	58
Pts	262-218	182-166
Total Points	480	348
Winners	121	96
%Winners	46%	53%

Alcaraz played 3 matches while Auger-Aliassime competed in 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz surrendered 1 set, while Felix Auger-Aliassime lost 1 set. Alcaraz has played 2 sets more than Auger-Aliassime (7 vs 5). Therefore, Alcaraz played 14 games more than Auger-Aliassime. The Spaniard scored 121 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Felix made 96 winners (53%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Auger-Aliassime
Aces	16	20
Avg per match	5.3	10
1st in	166/252	127/166
%1st in	66%	77%
1st pts	121/166	96/127
%1st pts	73%	76%
2nd pts	47/86	27/39
%2nd pts	55%	69%

Alcaraz made 16 aces (5.3 per match). Auger-Aliassime fired 20 aces (10 per match). Alcaraz won 73% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Auger-Aliassime won 76% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 69% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Auger-Aliassime
Won	10	3
Converted	10/23	3/14
% Converted	43%	21%
Conceded	16	7
Saved	13	5
% Saved	81%	71%
Times Broken	3	2

Alcaraz broke his opponents 10 times with a 43% conversion rate. Carlos surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 81% of the break points that he conceded. Felix broke his opponents 3 times with a 21% conversion rate. Auger-Aliassime conceded his serve twice and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	Round Robin Musetti	Round Robin Fritz	Round Robin De Minaur	Total
Score	6-4 6-1	6-72 7-5 6-3	7-65 6-2
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	17	34	21	72
pts	64-44	127-115	71-59	262-218
Total points	108	242	130	480
Winners	30	61	30	121
%Winners	47%	48%	42%	46%
SERVE
Aces	2	9	5	16
Double Faults	0	2	3	5
1st in	36/52	82/128	48/72	166/252
% 1st in	69%	64%	67%	66%
1st pts	30/36	61/82	30/48	121/166
% 1st pts	83%	74%	63%	73%
2nd pts	9/16	24/46	14/24	47/86
% 2nd pts	56%	52%	58%	55%
Breaks
Won	3	3	4	10
Converted	3/5	3/11	4/7	10/23
Converted %	60%	27%	57%	43%
Conceded	2	9	5	16
Saved	2/2	8/9	3/5	13
Saved %	100%	89%	60%	83%
Times Broken	0	1	2	3

Auger-Aliassime
	Round Robin Zverev	Round Robin Shelton	Round Robin Sinner	Total
Score	6-4 7-64	4-6 7-67 7-5	7-5 6-1
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	23	35	19	77
pts	79-72	103-94	–	182-166
Total points	151	197	0	348
Winners	39	57		96
%Winners	49%	55%	0%	53%
SERVE
Aces	11	9	0	20
Double Faults	0	1		1
1st in	53/73	74/93	/	127/166
% 1st in	73%	80%	0%	77%
1st pts	39/53	57/74	/	96/127
% 1st pts	74%	77%	0%	76%
2nd pts	13/20	14/19	/	27/39
% 2nd pts	65%	74%	0%	69%
Breaks
Won	1	2		3
Converted	1/7	2/7	/	3/14
Converted %	14%	29%	0%	21%
Conceded	4	3		7
Saved	4/4	1/3	0/	5
Saved %	100%	33%	–	44%
Times Broken	0	2		2

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (12-0) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (4-3) – H2H and prediction