Jannik Sinner and Alex De Minaur will play each other in the semifinal of the the Nitto ATP Finals for the 13^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 2:30 pm on Centre Court. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.11
Alex De Minaur -> 7.2

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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Alex De Minaur

This will be the 13^th time that Jannik Sinner and Alex De Minaur fight against each other. The head to head is 12-0 for Sinner (see full H2H stats), 7-0 on indoor hard courts.

The last time that they played each other, Sinner won 6-3 6-4 in the semifinal in Vienna back in October 2025.

Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur – Vienna 25-October-2025

Jannik Sinner

Ranked no. 2, the Italian got to the semifinal after defeating Felix Auger-Aliassime 7-5 6-1, Alexander Zverev 6-4 6-3 and Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6(3).

In the previous match, Jannik had a good straight sets win against Shelton (6-3 7-6³). During the match, Sinner scored 69 points vs Shelton’s 60. The Italian was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sinner struck 11 aces and he was extremely steady in conceding no double faults. Jannik Sinner was very efficient on serve to win 81% (38/47) of his 1st serve and 56% (9/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Jannik broke Shelton twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sinner hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to win 56% of the points he played.

Sinner has a fantastic match record in the last 8 years having won 76% of his matches (402-127). 13-0 on indoor hard courts in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sinner has a composed113-25 win-loss record in the last 8 years on indoor hard courts.

His best result of the current season was winning the title at the Australian Open where he beat Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3 and at the Wimbledon where he defeated Carlos Alcaraz in the final 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 and in Beijing where he overcame Learner Tien in the final 6-2 6-2 and in Vienna where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 3-6 6-3 7-5 and in Paris where he overcame Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final 6-4 7-6(4).

Jannik has an overall 56-6 win-loss record in 2025, 13-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals

Alex De Minaur

Ranked no. 7, De Minaur reached the semifinal after defeating Lorenzo Musetti 7-5 3-6 7-5

and Taylor Fritz 7-6(3) 6-3.

In the previous match, Alex had a good straight sets win against Fritz (7-6³ 6-3). During the match De Minaur scored 73 points vs Fritz’s 62. The Australian was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.

About the serving games, De Minaur blasted 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Alex De Minaur was exceptionally effective on serve to win 83% (30/36) of his 1st serve and 53% (16/30) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Australian broke Fritz twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).

His best result of the current season was conquering the title in Washington where he defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final 5-7 6-1 7-6(3).

Alex has a compiled 56-23 win-loss record in 2025, 13-5 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals

Previously, his best result was reaching the Round Robin in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sinner	De Minaur
Match played	3	1
Tot Set	6	2
Tot Games	60	22
Pts	207-164	73-62
Total Points	371	135
Winners	110	30
%Winners	53%	41%

Sinner played 3 matches while De Minaur competed in 1 match. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Sinner has played 4 sets more than De Minaur (6 vs 2). Therefore, Sinner played 38 games more than De Minaur. Sinner scored 110 winners (53% of the total points). On the other side, The Australian struck 30 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sinner	De Minaur
Aces	26	5
Avg per match	8.7	5
1st in	131/182	36/66
%1st in	72%	55%
1st pts	110/131	30/36
%1st pts	84%	83%
2nd pts	25/51	16/30
%2nd pts	49%	53%

Sinner fired 26 aces (8.7 per match). De Minaur recorded 5 aces . Sinner won 84% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, De Minaur won 83% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sinner	De Minaur
Won	7	2
Converted	7/18	2/4
% Converted	39%	50%
Conceded	8	1
Saved	8	0
% Saved	100%	0%
Times Broken	0	1

Sinner broke his opponents 7 times with a 39% conversion rate. The Italian quite strong on his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 8 break points. De Minaur broke his opponent twice with a 50% conversion rate. The Australian conceded his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded.

Sinner
	Round Robin Shelton	Round Robin Zverev	Round Robin Auger-Aliassime	Total
Score	6-3 7-63	6-4 6-3	7-5 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	22	19	19	60
pts	69-60	65-55	73-49	207-164
Total points	129	120	122	371
Winners	38	40	32	110
%Winners	55%	62%	44%	53%
SERVE
Aces	11	12	3	26
Double Faults	0	0	1	1
1st in	47/63	48/68	36/51	131/182
% 1st in	75%	71%	71%	72%
1st pts	38/47	40/48	32/36	110/131
% 1st pts	81%	83%	89%	84%
2nd pts	9/16	7/20	9/15	25/51
% 2nd pts	56%	35%	60%	49%
Breaks
Won	2	2	3	7
Converted	2/4	2/4	3/10	7/18
Converted %	50%	50%	30%	39%
Conceded	1	7	0	8
Saved	1/1	7/7	0/0	8
Saved %	100%	100%	–	67%
Times Broken	0	0	0	0

De Minaur
	Round Robin Fritz	Round Robin Musetti	Round Robin Alcaraz	Total
Score	7-63 6-3	7-5 3-6 7-5	7-65 6-2
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	22	33	21	76
pts	73-62	–	–	73-62
Total points	135	0	0	135
Winners	30			30
%Winners	41%	0%	0%	41%
SERVE
Aces	5	0	0	5
Double Faults	3			3
1st in	36/66	/	/	36/66
% 1st in	55%	0%	0%	55%
1st pts	30/36	/	/	30/36
% 1st pts	83%	0%	0%	83%
2nd pts	16/30	/	/	16/30
% 2nd pts	53%	0%	0%	53%
Breaks
Won	2			2
Converted	2/4	/	/	2/4
Converted %	50%	0%	0%	50%
Conceded	1			1
Saved	0/1	0/	0/	0
Saved %	0%	–	–	0%
Times Broken	1			1

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (12-0) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (4-3) – H2H and prediction