Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti will clash against each other in the Round Robin of the the Nitto ATP Finals for the 9th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 8:30 pm on Centre Court. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.14
Lorenzo Musetti -> 6.15
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti
This will be the 9th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti face off. The head to head is 7-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they competed against each other, Alcaraz won 4-6 7-6(3) 6-0 2-0 ret. in the semifinal in at the French Open back in June 2025.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti – French Open 06-June-2025
Carlos Alcaraz
70 - 8win/loss
1
1
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 71-9 | 28-4 | 22-1 | 10-3 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Alcaraz got to the Round Robin after defeating Taylor Fritz 6-7(2) 7-5 6-3 and Alex De Minaur 7-6(5) 6-2.
In the previous match against Fritz, Carlos recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-72 7-5 6-3). During the match, Alcaraz scored 127 points vs Fritz’s 115. Carlos was very aggressive to blast 61 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz recorded 9 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 74% (61/82) of his 1st serve and 52% (24/46) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Spaniard broke Fritz 3 times after converting 27% of his break points (3/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has lost 1 set in this event to win 53% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 81% of his matches (356-84). 8-2 on indoor hard courts in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has an aggregate33-15 record in the last 8 years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he beat Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2 and in Cincinnati where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 5-0 ret. and at the U.S. Open where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4 and in Tokyo where he beat Taylor Fritz in the final 6-4 6-4.
The Spaniard has an aggregate 69-8 win-loss record in 2025, 8-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
Lorenzo Musetti
45 - 22win/loss
8
6
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 45-22 | 18-11 | 19-4 | 8-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-30 | 13-12 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 9, Musetti reached the Round Robin after defeating Alex De Minaur 7-5 3-6 7-5 and Taylor Fritz 6-3 6-4.
In the previous match, Lorenzo defeated De Minaur (7-5 3-6 7-5). During the match Musetti and De Minaur scored the same amount of points (100). However, the world no. 1 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Lorenzo was pretty aggressive to blast 37 winners.
About the serving games, Musetti bagged 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 66% of his first serves in, winning 63% (37/59) of the points behind his 1st serve and 74% (23/31) on the 2nd serve. Musetti broke De Minaur 3 times after converting 25% of his break points (3/12).
Lorenzo’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Carlo, Chengdu and Athens.
The Italian has an aggregate 45-21 win-loss record in 2025, 8-5 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
Lorenzo has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 55 | 33 |
| Pts | 198-174 | 100-100 |
| Total Points | 372 | 200 |
| Winners | 91 | 37 |
| %Winners | 46% | 37% |
Alcaraz played 2 matches while Musetti competed in 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz conceded 1 set, while Lorenzo Musetti surrendered 1 set. Alcaraz has played 2 sets more than Musetti (5 vs 3). Therefore, Alcaraz played 22 games more than Musetti. The Spaniard scored 91 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Lorenzo made 37 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 5 |
| 1st in | 130/200 | 59/90 |
| %1st in | 65% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 91/130 | 37/59 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 63% |
| 2nd pts | 38/70 | 23/31 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 74% |
Alcaraz made 14 aces (7 per match). Musetti made 5 aces . Alcaraz won 70% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Musetti won 63% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 74% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 3 |
| Converted | 7/18 | 3/12 |
| % Converted | 39% | 25% |
| Conceded | 14 | 5 |
| Saved | 11 | 3 |
| % Saved | 79% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 |
Alcaraz broke his opponents 7 times with a 39% conversion rate. Alcaraz dropped his serve 3 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponent 3 times with a 25% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve twice and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||
| Round Robin Fritz | Round Robin De Minaur | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-72 7-5 6-3 | 7-65 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 34 | 21 | 55 | |
| pts | 127-115 | 71-59 | 198-174 | |
| Total points | 242 | 130 | 372 | |
| Winners | 61 | 30 | 91 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 42% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 9 | 5 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 82/128 | 48/72 | 130/200 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 67% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 61/82 | 30/48 | 91/130 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 63% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/46 | 14/24 | 38/70 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 58% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/11 | 4/7 | 7/18 | |
| Converted % | 27% | 57% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 5 | 14 | |
| Saved | 8/9 | 3/5 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 89% | 60% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Musetti | ||||
| Round Robin De Minaur | Round Robin Fritz | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 3-6 7-5 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 33 | 19 | 52 | |
| pts | 100-100 | – | 100-100 | |
| Total points | 200 | 0 | 200 | |
| Winners | 37 | 37 | ||
| %Winners | 37% | 0% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | ||
| 1st in | 59/90 | / | 59/90 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 0% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 37/59 | / | 37/59 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 0% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 23/31 | / | 23/31 | |
| % 2nd pts | 74% | 0% | 74% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | ||
| Converted | 3/12 | / | 3/12 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 0% | 25% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | ||
| Saved | 3/5 | 0/ | 3 | |
| Saved % | 60% | – | 30% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | ||
Tennis Scores in Nitto ATP Finals
- Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Ben SheltonShelton (4-6 7-67 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Christian Harrison/Evan KingHarrison/Evan King (7-65 6-72 13-11) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (7-5 3-6 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori – Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos (7-64 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Taylor FritzFritz (6-72 7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Julian Cash/Lloyd GlasspoolCash/Lloyd Glasspool – Kevin Krawietz/Tim PuetzKrawietz/Tim Puetz (7-69 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Joe Salisbury/Neal SkupskiSalisbury/Neal Skupski – Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Harri Heliovaara/Henry PattenHeliovaara/Henry Patten – Christian Harrison/Evan KingHarrison/Evan King (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Taylor FritzFritz – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (7-5 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Ben SheltonShelton (6-3 7-66) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos – Kevin Krawietz/Tim PuetzKrawietz/Tim Puetz (6-4 4-6 10-6) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-3) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (5-6) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – (7-1) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (7-1) – H2H and prediction