Lorenzo Musetti remains in contention for the ATP Finals semifinals in Turin, but his path hinges on a crucial win over Carlos Alcaraz and the outcome of Fritz vs. De Minaur.
Musetti’s Victory Keeps the Dream Alive
Lorenzo Musetti’s thrilling win over Alex de Minaur has extended his journey at the ATP Finals, marking a strong debut in the prestigious year-end tournament. With one win and one loss in the round-robin stage, Musetti now faces world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz in a decisive match that will determine his fate.
The current standings in the Jimmy Connors Group are as follows: Alcaraz leads with a 2-0 record (4 sets won, 1 lost), Fritz stands at 1-1 (3-2), Musetti is 1-1 (2-3), and De Minaur trails at 0-2 (1-4).
The Qualification Rules
If players finish the round-robin stage with the same number of match wins, the ATP Finals rules dictate the following tiebreakers: head-to-head results in two-way ties, and in three-way ties, the percentage of sets won, followed by percentage of games won, and finally ATP ranking.
This means Musetti’s chances are not solely in his hands. He must beat Alcaraz, but the margin and the result of the other match will determine whether he advances.
Scenario One: De Minaur Beats Fritz
Should Alex de Minaur defeat Taylor Fritz, Musetti would qualify for the semifinals with any win over Alcaraz—whether in two or three sets. In this case, Alcaraz would also progress, finishing second behind Musetti.
Scenario Two: Fritz Beats De Minaur
If Fritz prevails, Musetti must beat Alcaraz in straight sets to advance. A win in three sets would not be enough, as Fritz would top the group and Alcaraz would edge Musetti on set percentage.
“I just tried to make the most of the opportunities that he gave to me,”
said Alcaraz after his comeback win over Fritz. Musetti will need to deny him those chances entirely to stay alive.A Defining Moment Awaits
For Musetti, the match against Alcaraz is more than a challenge—it’s a career-defining opportunity. A win could propel him into the semifinals of one of the sport’s most elite events. But the margin of victory, and the result of Fritz vs. De Minaur, will shape the final outcome.
Lorenzo Musetti in 2025
Ranked no.9, Musetti played his last match on the 11th of November when he was defeated by world no.6 Taylor Fritz 6-3 6-4 in the round robin in the Nitto ATP Finals (draw).
Until now, during this year Musetti has achieved a 45-21 match record. Lorenzo Musetti’s most significant result of the current season was getting to the final in Monte Carlo, Chengdu and Athens.