Sho Shimabukuro and Henrique Rocha will fight against each other in the final of the Matsuyama Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on CENTER COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sho Shimabukuro who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Sho Shimabukuro is the pick to win this match.
Sho Shimabukuro -> 1.4
Henrique Rocha -> 2.68

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Prediction and head to head Sho Shimabukuro vs. Henrique Rocha

There is no head to head record between Sho Shimabukuro and Henrique Rocha since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.

Sho Shimabukuro

Ranked no. 157, Shimabukuro reached the final after defeating Yuki Mochizuki 6-4 6-2, Garrett Johns 6-2 6-2, Hugo Grenier 4-6 6-3 6-2 and Ryan Peniston 6-3 6-2.

In the semifinal, Shimabukuro had a good straight sets win against Peniston (6-3 6-2). During the match, Shimabukuro scored 63 points vs Peniston’s 45. Shimabukuro was exceptionally aggressive to blast 20 winners.

Regarding the service games, Shimabukuro bagged 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Sho Shimabukuro was very effective on serve to win 83% (20/24) of his 1st serve and 62% (16/26) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sho broke Peniston 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Japanese has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 57% of the points he played.

Shimabukuro has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (273-167). 29-18 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Shimabukuro has a compiled 207-121 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current season was winning the title the Zhangjiagang Challenger where he overcame Oliver Crawford in the final 6-3 3-6 7-5 and the Seoul Challenger where he defeated Chak Lam Coleman Wong in the final 6-4 6-3.

Sho has an aggregate 32-21 win-loss record in 2025, 29-18 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Matsuyama Challenger

Henrique Rocha

Ranked no. 167, Rocha got to the final after defeating Kokoro Isomura 5-7 6-4 6-1, Renta Tokuda 6-4 6-3, Rio Noguchi 7-5 4-6 6-3 and Frederico Ferreira Silva 6-2 6-3.

In the semifinal, Rocha had a good straight sets win against Ferreira Silva (6-2 6-3). During the match Rocha scored 61 points vs Ferreira Silva’s 41. Henrique was quite aggressive to blast 27 winners.

About the serving games, Rocha scored 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Henrique Rocha was very efficient on serve to win 84% (27/32) of his 1st serve and 52% (12/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Portuguese broke Ferreira Silva 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Rocha has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Rocha’s best result of the year was reaching the final in the Lisbon Challenger.

Rocha has a composed 32-28 win-loss record in 2025, 15-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Shimabukuro	Rocha
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	10
Tot Games	78	96
Pts	273-204	319-263
Total Points	477	582
Winners	104	137
%Winners	38%	43%

Both Shimabukuro and Rocha played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Sho Shimabukuro conceded 1 set, while Henrique Rocha surrendered 2 sets. Shimabukuro has played 1 set(s) less than Rocha (9 vs 10). Therefore, Shimabukuro played 18 games less than Rocha. The Japanese scored 104 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Rocha blasted 137 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Shimabukuro	Rocha
Aces	17	14
Avg per match	4.3	3.5
1st in	138/233	186/307
%1st in	59%	61%
1st pts	104/138	137/186
%1st pts	75%	74%
2nd pts	54/95	67/121
%2nd pts	57%	55%

Shimabukuro fired 17 aces (4.3 per match). Rocha managed to score 14 aces (3.5 per match). Shimabukuro won 75% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Rocha won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Shimabukuro	Rocha
Won	17	15
Converted	17/30	15/32
% Converted	57%	47%
Conceded	13	19
Saved	8	12
% Saved	62%	63%
Times Broken	5	7

The Japanese broke his opponents 17 times with a 57% conversion rate. Shimabukuro conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 62% of the break points that he conceded. The Portuguese broke his opponents 15 times with a 47% conversion rate. Henrique conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.

Shimabukuro
	R1 Mochizuki	R2 Johns	1/4 Grenier	1/2 Peniston	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-2 6-2	4-6 6-3 6-2	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	9
Tot Games	18	16	27	17	78
pts	67-53	53-29	90-77	63-45	273-204
Total points	120	82	167	108	477
Winners	23	21	40	20	104
%Winners	34%	40%	44%	32%	38%
SERVE
Aces	0	5	8	4	17
Double Faults	0	0	3	2	5
1st in	41/64	24/37	49/82	24/50	138/233
% 1st in	64%	65%	60%	48%	59%
1st pts	23/41	21/24	40/49	20/24	104/138
% 1st pts	56%	88%	82%	83%	75%
2nd pts	9/23	11/13	18/33	16/26	54/95
% 2nd pts	39%	85%	55%	62%	57%
Breaks
Won	7	4	3	3	17
Converted	7/12	4/6	3/5	3/7	17/30
Converted %	58%	67%	60%	43%	57%
Conceded	7	0	6	0	13
Saved	3/7	0/0	5/6	0/0	8
Saved %	43%	–	83%	–	32%
Times Broken	4	0	1	0	5

Rocha
	R1 Isomura	R2 Tokuda	1/4 Noguchi	1/2 Ferreira Silva	Total
Score	5-7 6-4 6-1	6-4 6-3	7-5 4-6 6-3	6-2 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	3	2	10
Tot Games	29	19	31	17	96
pts	107-95	61-45	90-82	61-41	319-263
Total points	202	106	172	102	582
Winners	41	25	44	27	137
%Winners	38%	41%	49%	44%	43%
SERVE
Aces	6	2	3	3	14
Double Faults	5	2	5	2	14
1st in	63/111	32/57	59/84	32/55	186/307
% 1st in	57%	56%	70%	58%	61%
1st pts	41/63	25/32	44/59	27/32	137/186
% 1st pts	65%	78%	75%	84%	74%
2nd pts	24/48	18/25	13/25	12/23	67/121
% 2nd pts	50%	72%	52%	52%	55%
Breaks
Won	6	2	4	3	15
Converted	6/14	2/2	4/10	3/6	15/32
Converted %	43%	100%	40%	50%	47%
Conceded	11	0	6	2	19
Saved	7/11	0/0	3/6	2/2	12
Saved %	64%	–	50%	100%	54%
Times Broken	4	0	3	0	7

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