Sho Shimabukuro and Ryan Peniston will square off in the semifinal of the Matsuyama Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 1:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sho Shimabukuro who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Sho Shimabukuro is the pick to win this match.
Sho Shimabukuro -> 1.56
Ryan Peniston -> 2.24

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Prediction and head to head Sho Shimabukuro vs. Ryan Peniston

There is no head to head record between Sho Shimabukuro and Ryan Peniston since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.

Sho Shimabukuro

Ranked no. 157, Shimabukuro got to the semifinal after defeating Yuki Mochizuki 6-4 6-2, Garrett Johns 6-2 6-2 and Hugo Grenier 4-6 6-3 6-2.

In the quarter against Grenier, Shimabukuro recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-2). During the match, Shimabukuro scored 90 points vs Grenier’s 77. Sho was exceptionally aggressive to blast 40 winners.

Talking about the service games, Shimabukuro scored 8 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Sho Shimabukuro was pretty effective on serve to win 82% (40/49) of his 1st serve and 55% (18/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Sho broke Grenier 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sho has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 57% of the points he played.

Shimabukuro has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (272-167). 28-18 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Shimabukuro has a compiled 206-121 record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the year was winning the title the Zhangjiagang Challenger where he beat Oliver Crawford in the final 6-3 3-6 7-5 and the Seoul Challenger where he overcame Chak Lam Coleman Wong in the final 6-4 6-3.

The Japanese has a composed 31-21 win-loss record in 2025, 28-18 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Matsuyama Challenger

Ryan Peniston

Ranked no. 194, Peniston got to the semifinal after defeating Takuya Kumasaka 6-0 6-1, Shunsuke Nakagawa 6-2 6-7(5) 6-3 and Duje Ajdukovic 7-5 3-6 6-2.

In the quarter, Peniston defeated Ajdukovic (7-5 3-6 6-2). During the match Peniston scored 107 points vs Ajdukovic’s 91. The Brit was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about serving, Peniston recorded 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Ryan Peniston lost the serve 4 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Peniston put 60% of his first serves in, winning 63% (31/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 59% (19/32) on the 2nd serve. Peniston broke Ajdukovic 6 times after converting 40% of his break points (6/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Peniston has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

His best result of the year was winning the title the Hersonissos 5 Challenger where he defeated Kimmer Coppejans in the final 6-3 7-5.

Ryan has a compiled 53-21 win-loss record in 2025, 45-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Shimabukuro	Peniston
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	8
Tot Games	61	72
Pts	210-159	264-195
Total Points	369	459
Winners	84	97
%Winners	40%	37%

Both Shimabukuro and Peniston played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Sho Shimabukuro conceded 1 set, while Ryan Peniston dropped 2 sets. Shimabukuro has played 1 set(s) less than Peniston (7 vs 8). Therefore, Shimabukuro played 11 games less than Peniston. Shimabukuro scored 84 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Brit managed to score 97 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Shimabukuro	Peniston
Aces	13	6
Avg per match	4.3	2
1st in	114/183	136/200
%1st in	62%	68%
1st pts	84/114	97/136
%1st pts	74%	71%
2nd pts	38/69	40/64
%2nd pts	55%	63%

Shimabukuro bagged 13 aces (4.3 per match). Peniston scored 6 aces (2 per match). Shimabukuro won 74% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Peniston won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 63% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Shimabukuro	Peniston
Won	14	17
Converted	14/23	17/38
% Converted	61%	45%
Conceded	13	13
Saved	8	7
% Saved	62%	54%
Times Broken	5	6

Shimabukuro broke his opponents 14 times with a 61% conversion rate. Sho lost his serve 5 times and he saved 62% of the break points that he conceded. Ryan broke his opponents 17 times with a 45% conversion rate. Ryan conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 54% of the break points that he conceded.

Shimabukuro
	R1 Mochizuki	R2 Johns	1/4 Grenier	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-2 6-2	4-6 6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	18	16	27	61
pts	67-53	53-29	90-77	210-159
Total points	120	82	167	369
Winners	23	21	40	84
%Winners	34%	40%	44%	40%
SERVE
Aces	0	5	8	13
Double Faults	0	0	3	3
1st in	41/64	24/37	49/82	114/183
% 1st in	64%	65%	60%	62%
1st pts	23/41	21/24	40/49	84/114
% 1st pts	56%	88%	82%	74%
2nd pts	9/23	11/13	18/33	38/69
% 2nd pts	39%	85%	55%	55%
Breaks
Won	7	4	3	14
Converted	7/12	4/6	3/5	14/23
Converted %	58%	67%	60%	61%
Conceded	7	0	6	13
Saved	3/7	0/0	5/6	8
Saved %	43%	–	83%	42%
Times Broken	4	0	1	5

Peniston
	R1 Kumasaka	R2 Nakagawa	1/4 Ajdukovic	Total
Score	6-0 6-1	6-2 6-75 6-3	7-5 3-6 6-2
Tot Set	2	3	3	8
Tot Games	13	30	29	72
pts	54-21	103-83	107-91	264-195
Total points	75	186	198	459
Winners	17	49	31	97
%Winners	31%	48%	29%	37%
SERVE
Aces	0	4	2	6
Double Faults	0	5	2	7
1st in	19/27	68/92	49/81	136/200
% 1st in	70%	74%	60%	68%
1st pts	17/19	49/68	31/49	97/136
% 1st pts	89%	72%	63%	71%
2nd pts	7/8	14/24	19/32	40/64
% 2nd pts	88%	58%	59%	63%
Breaks
Won	6	5	6	17
Converted	6/11	5/12	6/15	17/38
Converted %	55%	42%	40%	45%
Conceded	0	7	6	13
Saved	0/0	5/7	2/6	7
Saved %	–	71%	33%	35%
Times Broken	0	2	4	6

Tennis Scores in Matsuyama Challenger

• Henrique RochaRocha – Rio NoguchiNoguchi (7-5 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Ryan PenistonPeniston – Duje AjdukovicAjdukovic (7-5 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Frederico Ferreira SilvaFerreira Silva – Oliver CrawfordCrawford (6-7³ 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Hugo GrenierGrenier (4-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Finn Reynolds/James WattReynolds/James Watt – Yuki Mochizuki/Ryotaro TaguchiMochizuki/Ryotaro Taguchi (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Ryan PenistonPeniston – Duje AjdukovicAjdukovic (7-5 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Hugo GrenierGrenier (4-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Ryan PenistonPeniston – Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro (0-0) – H2H and prediction