Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina will face off in the semifinal of the WTA Finals for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 4:30 pm on Center Court. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.45
Jessica Pegula -> 2.85

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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina

This will be the 6^th time that Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina face off. The head to head is 3-2 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), but Rybakina has a winning record of 1-0 on indoor hard courts.

The last time that they competed against each other, Rybakina won 6-4 6-1 in the Rubber 2 in Billie Jean King Cup, Finals back in September 2025.

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 5, Jessica got to the semifinal after defeating Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-3, Cori Gauff 6-3 6-7(4) 6-2 and Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 2-6 6-3.

In the previous match, Pegula had a good straight sets win against Paolini (6-2 6-3). During the match, Pegula scored 64 points vs Paolini’s 42. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Talking about the service games, Pegula managed to score 2 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Jessica Pegula was quite effective on serve to win 83% (24/29) of her 1st serve and 75% (9/12) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Paolini 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 56% of the points she played.

Pegula has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 67% of her matches (357-179). 3-3 on indoor hard courts in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Pegula has a composed 16-12 match record in the last years on indoor hard courts.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Austin where she defeated Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Charleston where she overcame Sofia Kenin in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Bad Homburg where she beat Iga Swiatek in the final 6-4 7-5.

Jessica has an overall 53-22 win-loss record in 2025, 3-3 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Riyadh

Elena Rybakina

Ranked no. 6, Elena got to the semifinal after defeating Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 6-4, Amanda Anisimova 6-3 6-1 and Iga Swiatek 3-6 6-1 6-0.

In the previous match, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Alexandrova (6-4 6-4). During the match Rybakina scored 64 points vs Alexandrova’s 51. Rybakina was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Talking about serving, Rybakina struck 8 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Elena Rybakina was very efficient on serve to win 79% (30/38) of her 1st serve and 56% (14/25) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Elena broke Alexandrova 3 times after converting 75% of her break points (3/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Elena has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Strasbourg where she overcame Liudmila Samsonova in the final 6-1 6-7(2) 6-1 and in Ningbo where she defeated Ekaterina Alexandrova in the final 3-6 6-0 6-2.

Rybakina has a composed 57-19 win-loss record in 2025, 6-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Riyadh

Previously, her best result was reaching the Round Robin in 2023 and 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Pegula	Rybakina
Match played	2	3
Tot Set	5	7
Tot Games	47	58
Pts	176-137	196-143
Total Points	313	339
Winners	64	86
%Winners	36%	44%

Pegula played 2 matches while Rybakina competed in 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jessica Pegula conceded 1 set, while Elena Rybakina surrendered 1 set. Pegula has played 2 set(s) less than Rybakina (5 vs 7). Therefore, Pegula played 11 games less than Rybakina. The American scored 64 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani managed to score 86 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Pegula	Rybakina
Aces	7	20
Avg per match	3.5	6.7
1st in	86/133	107/169
%1st in	65%	63%
1st pts	64/86	86/107
%1st pts	74%	80%
2nd pts	21/47	35/62
%2nd pts	45%	56%

Pegula scored 7 aces (3.5 per match). Rybakina struck 20 aces (6.7 per match). Pegula won 74% points behind her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 80% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Pegula	Rybakina
Won	13	12
Converted	13/27	12/16
% Converted	48%	75%
Conceded	9	10
Saved	4	8
% Saved	44%	80%
Times Broken	5	2

Pegula broke her opponents 13 times with a 48% conversion rate. Pegula lost her serve 5 times and she saved 44% of the break points that she conceded. Elena broke her opponents 12 times with a 75% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve twice and she saved 80% of the break points that she conceded.

Pegula
	Round Robin Paolini	Round Robin Sabalenka	Round Robin Gauff	Total
Score	6-2 6-3	6-4 2-6 6-3	6-3 6-74 6-2
Tot Set	2	3	3	8
Tot Games	17	27	30	74
pts	64-42	–	112-95	176-137
Total points	106	0	207	313
Winners	24		40	64
%Winners	38%	0%	36%	36%
SERVE
Aces	2	0	5	7
Double Faults	1		1	2
1st in	29/41	/	57/92	86/133
% 1st in	71%	0%	62%	65%
1st pts	24/29	/	40/57	64/86
% 1st pts	83%	0%	70%	74%
2nd pts	9/12	/	12/35	21/47
% 2nd pts	75%	0%	34%	45%
Breaks
Won	4		9	13
Converted	4/9	/	9/18	13/27
Converted %	44%	0%	50%	48%
Conceded	1		8	9
Saved	1/1	0/	3/8	4
Saved %	100%	–	38%	46%
Times Broken	0		5	5

Rybakina
	Round Robin Alexandrova	Round Robin Swiatek	Round Robin Anisimova	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	3-6 6-1 6-0	6-3 6-1
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	20	22	16	58
pts	64-51	75-57	57-35	196-143
Total points	115	132	92	339
Winners	30	29	27	86
%Winners	47%	39%	47%	44%
SERVE
Aces	8	5	7	20
Double Faults	2	3	1	6
1st in	38/63	38/61	31/45	107/169
% 1st in	60%	62%	69%	63%
1st pts	30/38	29/38	27/31	86/107
% 1st pts	79%	76%	87%	80%
2nd pts	14/25	14/23	7/14	35/62
% 2nd pts	56%	61%	50%	56%
Breaks
Won	3	5	4	12
Converted	3/4	5/7	4/5	12/16
Converted %	75%	71%	80%	75%
Conceded	6	3	1	10
Saved	5/6	2/3	1/1	8
Saved %	83%	67%	100%	83%
Times Broken	1	1	0	2

Tennis Scores in Riyadh

• Mats MoraingMoraing – Igor SijslingSijsling (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Kimmer CoppejansCoppejans – Blaz RolaRola (6-4 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Jessica PegulaPegula (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (4-6) – H2H and prediction