Henrique Rocha and Rio Noguchi will clash against each other in the quarter of the Matsuyama Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 11:00 am on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Henrique Rocha who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Henrique Rocha is the pick to win this match.
Henrique Rocha -> 1.51
Rio Noguchi -> 2.35

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Prediction and head to head Henrique Rocha vs. Rio Noguchi

This will be the 2^nd time that Henrique Rocha and Rio Noguchi square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Noguchi (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Noguchi won 6-4 6-4 in the 1^st round in M25 Sintra back in 2021.

Henrique Rocha

Ranked no. 167, the Portuguese got to the quarter after defeating Kokoro Isomura 5-7 6-4 6-1 and Renta Tokuda 6-4 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Henrique had a good straight sets win against Tokuda (6-4 6-3). During the match, Rocha scored 61 points vs Tokuda’s 45. Rocha was very aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about the service games, Rocha managed to score 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Henrique Rocha was very efficient on serve to win 78% (25/32) of his 1st serve and 72% (18/25) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Henrique was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Tokuda twice.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Henrique has lost 1 set in this tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Rocha has a winning record in the last 6 years having won 57% of his matches (156-118). 13-9 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Rocha has a compiled81-43 record in the last 6 years on hard.

The Portuguese’s best result of the year was reaching the final in the Lisbon Challenger.

Rocha has an overall 30-28 win-loss record in 2025, 13-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Matsuyama Challenger

Rocha has never competed in this tournament before.

Rio Noguchi

Ranked no. 246, the Japanese reached the quarter after defeating Yusuke Takahashi 7-5 6-4 and Philip Sekulic 6-2 7-6(5).

In the 2^nd round, Noguchi had a good straight sets win against Sekulic (6-2 7-6⁵). During the match Noguchi scored 76 points vs Sekulic’s 60. Rio was quite aggressive to blast 36 winners.

About the serving games, Noguchi scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he was extremely solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Rio Noguchi was extremely efficient on serve to win 71% (36/51) of his 1st serve and 63% (10/16) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Noguchi broke Sekulic 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Noguchi hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

His best result of the current season was winning the title the Nonthaburi 2 Challenger where he overcame Jie Cui in the final 7-6(9) 6-2.

The Japanese has a compiled 36-27 win-loss record in 2025, 36-27 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Rocha	Noguchi
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	5	4
Tot Games	48	43
Pts	168-140	152-121
Total Points	308	273
Winners	66	60
%Winners	39%	39%

Both Rocha and Noguchi played 2 matches. At the moment, Henrique Rocha surrendered 1 set while Rio Noguchi hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Rocha has played 1 set more than Noguchi (5 vs 4). Therefore, Rocha played 5 games more than Noguchi. The Portuguese scored 66 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese struck 60 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Rocha	Noguchi
Aces	8	2
Avg per match	4	1
1st in	95/168	88/134
%1st in	57%	66%
1st pts	66/95	60/88
%1st pts	69%	68%
2nd pts	42/73	33/46
%2nd pts	58%	72%

Rocha bagged 8 aces (4 per match). Noguchi bagged 2 aces (1 per match). Rocha won 69% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Noguchi won 68% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 72% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Rocha	Noguchi
Won	8	6
Converted	8/16	6/15
% Converted	50%	40%
Conceded	11	5
Saved	7	3
% Saved	64%	60%
Times Broken	4	2

Henrique broke his opponents 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. Rocha surrendered his serve 4 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded. The Japanese broke his opponents 6 times with a 40% conversion rate. Noguchi conceded his serve twice and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.

Rocha
	R1 Isomura	R2 Tokuda	Total
Score	5-7 6-4 6-1	6-4 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	5
Tot Games	29	19	48
pts	107-95	61-45	168-140
Total points	202	106	308
Winners	41	25	66
%Winners	38%	41%	39%
SERVE
Aces	6	2	8
Double Faults	5	2	7
1st in	63/111	32/57	95/168
% 1st in	57%	56%	57%
1st pts	41/63	25/32	66/95
% 1st pts	65%	78%	69%
2nd pts	24/48	18/25	42/73
% 2nd pts	50%	72%	58%
Breaks
Won	6	2	8
Converted	6/14	2/2	8/16
Converted %	43%	100%	50%
Conceded	11	0	11
Saved	7/11	0/0	7
Saved %	64%	–	32%
Times Broken	4	0	4

Noguchi
	R1 Takahashi	R2 Sekulic	Total
Score	7-5 6-4	6-2 7-65
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	22	21	43
pts	76-61	76-60	152-121
Total points	137	136	273
Winners	24	36	60
%Winners	32%	47%	39%
SERVE
Aces	1	1	2
Double Faults	0	0	0
1st in	37/67	51/67	88/134
% 1st in	55%	76%	66%
1st pts	24/37	36/51	60/88
% 1st pts	65%	71%	68%
2nd pts	23/30	10/16	33/46
% 2nd pts	77%	63%	72%
Breaks
Won	3	3	6
Converted	3/7	3/8	6/15
Converted %	43%	38%	40%
Conceded	3	2	5
Saved	2/3	1/2	3
Saved %	67%	50%	59%
Times Broken	1	1	2

Tennis Scores in Matsuyama Challenger

• Finn Reynolds/James WattReynolds/James Watt – Yuki Mochizuki/Ryotaro TaguchiMochizuki/Ryotaro Taguchi (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

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• Duje AjdukovicAjdukovic – Ryan PenistonPeniston (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Oliver CrawfordCrawford – Frederico Ferreira SilvaFerreira Silva (0-0) – H2H and prediction