Shunsuke Nakagawa and Ryan Peniston will fight against each other in the 2^nd round of the Matsuyama Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 1:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ryan Peniston who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Ryan Peniston is the pick to win this match.
Ryan Peniston -> 1.091
Shunsuke Nakagawa -> 5.85

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Prediction and head to head Shunsuke Nakagawa vs. Ryan Peniston

There is no head to head record between Shunsuke Nakagawa and Ryan Peniston since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Currently unranked, Nakagawa got to the 2^nd round after defeating Yuta Kawahashi 6-3 6-1, Yuta Kikuchi 6-3 7-5 and Sanhui Shin 2-6 7-5 6-3.

In the 1^st round against Shin, Nakagawa recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 7-5 6-3). During the match, Nakagawa scored 109 points vs Shin’s 108. Shunsuke was quite aggressive to blast 35 winners.

Regarding the service games, Nakagawa blasted 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Shunsuke Nakagawa lost the serve 5 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Nakagawa put 58% of his first serves in, winning 57% (35/61) of the points behind his 1st serve and 51% (23/45) on the 2nd serve. Nakagawa broke Shin 5 times after converting 25% of his break points (5/20).

Nakagawa has a solid win-loss record in the last 5 years having won 61% of his matches (68-43). 27-16 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Nakagawa has an aggregate65-40 record in the last 5 years on hard.

Shunsuke has an overall 27-16 win-loss record in 2025, 27-16 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Matsuyama Challenger

Ryan Peniston

Ranked no. 194, the Brit reached the 2^nd round after beating Takuya Kumasaka 6-0 6-1.

In the 1^st round, The Brit had a good straight sets win against Kumasaka (6-0 6-1). During the match Peniston scored 54 points vs Kumasaka’s 21. The Brit was very aggressive to blast 17 winners.

About the serving games, Peniston was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he was very consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Ryan Peniston was extremely efficient on serve to win 89% (17/19) of his 1st serve and 88% (7/8) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Peniston broke Kumasaka 6 times after converting 55% of his break points (6/11).

His best result of the current season was winning the title the Hersonissos 5 Challenger where he beat Kimmer Coppejans in the final 6-3 7-5.

Peniston has a composed 51-21 win-loss record in 2025, 43-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Matsuyama Challenger

Peniston has never competed in this tournament before.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Nakagawa	Peniston
Match played	3	1
Tot Set	7	2
Tot Games	66	13
Pts	247-214	54-21
Total Points	461	75
Winners	81	17
%Winners	33%	31%

Nakagawa played 3 matches while Peniston competed in 1 match. Nakagawa started his run from the qualifications while Peniston had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Shunsuke Nakagawa surrendered 1 set while Ryan Peniston hasn’t conceded a set so far. Nakagawa has played 5 sets more than Peniston (7 vs 2). Therefore, Nakagawa played 53 games more than Peniston. Nakagawa scored 81 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Peniston made 17 winners (31%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Nakagawa	Peniston
Aces	13	0
Avg per match	4.3	0
1st in	135/224	19/27
%1st in	60%	70%
1st pts	81/135	17/19
%1st pts	60%	89%
2nd pts	46/89	7/8
%2nd pts	52%	88%

Nakagawa managed to score 13 aces (4.3 per match). Peniston didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Nakagawa won 60% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Peniston won 89% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 88% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Nakagawa	Peniston
Won	17	6
Converted	17/44	6/11
% Converted	39%	55%
Conceded	24	0
Saved	14	0
% Saved	58%	0%
Times Broken	10	0

Nakagawa broke his opponents 17 times with a 39% conversion rate. Shunsuke dropped his serve 10 times and he saved 58% of the break points that he conceded. Peniston broke his opponent 6 times with a 55% conversion rate. Ryan was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 0 break points.

Nakagawa
	Q1 Kawahashi	Q3 Kikuchi	R1 Shin	Total
Score	6-3 6-1	6-3 7-5	2-6 7-5 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	16	21	29	66
pts	55-36	83-70	109-108	247-214
Total points	91	153	217	461
Winners	21	25	35	81
%Winners	38%	30%	32%	33%
SERVE
Aces	3	4	6	13
Double Faults	2	2	3	7
1st in	26/46	48/72	61/106	135/224
% 1st in	57%	67%	58%	60%
1st pts	21/26	25/48	35/61	81/135
% 1st pts	81%	52%	57%	60%
2nd pts	7/20	16/24	23/45	46/89
% 2nd pts	35%	67%	51%	52%
Breaks
Won	6	6	5	17
Converted	6/10	6/14	5/20	17/44
Converted %	60%	43%	25%	39%
Conceded	2	10	12	24
Saved	0/2	7/10	7/12	14
Saved %	0%	70%	58%	43%
Times Broken	2	3	5	10

Peniston
	R1 Kumasaka	Total
Score	6-0 6-1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	13	13
pts	54-21	54-21
Total points	75	75
Winners	17	17
%Winners	31%	31%
SERVE
Aces	0	0
Double Faults	0	0
1st in	19/27	19/27
% 1st in	70%	70%
1st pts	17/19	17/19
% 1st pts	89%	89%
2nd pts	7/8	7/8
% 2nd pts	88%	88%
Breaks
Won	6	6
Converted	6/11	6/11
Converted %	55%	55%
Conceded	0	0
Saved	0/0	0
Saved %	–	0%
Times Broken	0	0

Tennis Scores in Matsuyama Challenger

• Henrique RochaRocha – Renta TokudaTokuda (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Rio NoguchiNoguchi – Philip SekulicSekulic (6-2 7-6⁵) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Frederico Ferreira SilvaFerreira Silva – Max BasingBasing (6-1 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Oliver CrawfordCrawford – Marc-Andrea HueslerHuesler (7-6⁶ 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Yasutaka UchiyamaUchiyama – Hugo GrenierGrenier (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Garrett JohnsJohns (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Duje AjdukovicAjdukovic – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Oliver CrawfordCrawford – Frederico Ferreira SilvaFerreira Silva (0-0) – H2H and prediction