The ATP Finals in Turin will determine who finishes 2025 as World No. 1. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are separated by a narrow margin, and the tournament’s unique format introduces multiple paths to the top. With up to 1,500 points available, every match counts.
“It’s going to be a battle. I’ll give everything I have,” said Sinner ahead of the Finals.
If Sinner Wins All Five Matches
Should Sinner go undefeated in Turin—winning all three round-robin matches, the semifinal, and the final—he will collect the full 1,500 points. In this case, Alcaraz can still finish as year-end No. 1 if he:
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Wins all three round-robin matches
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Wins two round-robin matches and reaches the final
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Wins one round-robin match and reaches the final
This scenario highlights how Alcaraz’s path depends not just on victories but also on reaching the final.
If Sinner Wins With One Loss
If Sinner wins the ATP Finals but drops one match—either in the round-robin or knockout stage—he will earn 1,300 points. In this case, Alcaraz needs to win at least two matches in Turin to retain his No. 1 status.
This outcome would require Sinner to win the title but not dominate every round, giving Alcaraz a chance to edge ahead with consistent performance.
If Sinner Wins With Two Losses
If Sinner wins the ATP Finals with two losses—earning 1,100 points—Alcaraz can finish as year-end No. 1 by winning just one match in Turin. This is the most favorable scenario for the Spaniard, assuming Sinner struggles in the early rounds but still manages to win the title.
“I know what’s at stake, but I’ll focus on each match,” Alcaraz said in Paris after his early exit.
A Rivalry That Defines the Season
The ATP Finals will not only crown the year-end No. 1 but also mark the climax of a season-long rivalry. Alcaraz defeated Sinner in the US Open final, while Sinner responded with a dominant indoor run. Both players have shown resilience and brilliance, and Turin promises a dramatic conclusion.
Jannik Sinner in 2025
WWWWWWWWWW Currently ranked no.2, the Italian played his last match on the 2nd of November when he defeated world no.10 Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4 7-6(4) in the final in Paris to win his 23rd career title.
At the moment, during this season the Italian owns an overall 53-6 match record. Jannik conquered 5 titles in 2025 at the Australian Open, Wimbledon, Beijing, Vienna and Paris. Jannik was the runner-up in Rome, French Open, Cincinnati and U.S. Open.
Carlos Alcaraz in 2025
LWWWWLWWWW At the moment ranked no.1, the Spaniard played his last match on the 28th of October when he lost to world no.31 Cameron Norrie 4-6 6-3 6-4 in the 2nd round in Paris (draw).
At present, during this year the Spaniard has managed to achieve a compiled 67-8 match record. Alcaraz has won 8 titles in 2025 in Rotterdam, Monte-Carlo, Rome, French Open, London, Cincinnati, U.S. Open and Tokyo. Carlos was the finalist in Barcelona and Wimbledon.
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz squared off 16 times. Their current record is 11-5 for Alcaraz.
