Koki Matsuda and Taiyo Yamanaka will play each other in the qualifications of the Matsuyama Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 1:30 pm on COURT 4. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Koki Matsuda who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Koki Matsuda is the pick to win this match.
Koki Matsuda -> 1.5
Taiyo Yamanaka -> 2.375

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Prediction and head to head Koki Matsuda vs. Taiyo Yamanaka

This will be the 2nd time that Koki Matsuda and Taiyo Yamanaka clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Yamanaka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Yamanaka won 6-4 6-3 in the quarter in M15 Tanagura back in 2024.

Koki Matsuda

Koki Matsuda

40 - 15win/loss

Hard
18-11
I Hard
22-4
Rank
615
High
608
LWLLWWWLLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 43-18 21-13 0-0 22-5 0-0 0-0
2024 23-21 16-10 7-9 0-2 0-0 0-0
2023 18-21 18-19 0-2 0-0 0-0 0-0
2022 6-3 6-3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 653 (career-high), the Japanese got to the qualifications after defeating Keisuke Saitoh 7-5 5-7 6-4

.

In the qualifications, Matsuda defeated Saitoh (7-5 5-7 6-4). During the match, Matsuda scored 107 points vs Saitoh’s 99. Koki was extremely aggressive to blast 41 winners.

Talking about the service games, Matsuda scored 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Koki Matsuda lost the serve 4 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Matsuda put 58% of his first serves in, winning 77% (41/53) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (18/38) on the 2nd serve. Koki broke Saitoh 5 times after converting 38% of his break points (5/13).

Matsuda has a winning match record in the last 4 years having won 59% of his matches (87-60). 18-11 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Matsuda has an overall58-43 match record in the last 4 years on hard.

The Japanese’s best result of the year was getting to the final in M15 Maanshan and M15 Singapore.

Koki has a compiled 40-15 win-loss record in 2025, 18-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Matsuyama Challenger

Matsuyama Challenger
Matsuda's Record

Taiyo Yamanaka

Taiyo Yamanaka

30 - 19win/loss

Hard
26-17
I Hard
4-2
Rank
798
High
745
LWLWLWLLWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 32-22 28-20 0-0 4-2 0-0 0-0
2024 42-31 36-27 0-1 6-3 0-0 0-0
2023 23-22 21-18 2-4 0-0 0-0 0-0
2022 38-22 14-13 24-9 0-0 0-0 0-0
2021 42-29 3-3 39-26 0-0 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 776, the Japanese reached the qualifications after beating Riku Takahata 6-1 6-4.

In the qualifications, The Japanese had a good straight sets win against Takahata (6-1 6-4). During the match Yamanaka scored 63 points vs Takahata’s 45. The Japanese was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.

About the serving games, Yamanaka bagged 2 aces and he was very consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Taiyo Yamanaka was very effective on serve to win 83% (30/36) of his 1st serve and 53% (8/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Yamanaka broke Takahata 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).

Taiyo’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in M15 Luan.

The Japanese has a compiled 30-19 win-loss record in 2025, 26-17 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Matsuyama Challenger
Yamanaka's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament

K.Matsuda
T.Yamanaka
!
2h:22
2h:22
Time on court​
1h:17
1h:17
!
2h:22
2h:22
Last match​
1h:17
1h:17
1
1
Match played
1
1
34
34
Games Played​
17
17
3
3
Set played​​
2
2
107
107
Total points​
63
63
107
107
Avg point​
63
63
41
41
Winners
30
30
41
41
Avg Winners​
30
30
38%
38%
Ratio winners
48%
48%
-- Serve --
5
5
Aces
2
2
5
5
Avg Aces
2
2
3
3
Double Faults
0
0
3
3
Avg Double Faults
0
0
41/53
41/53
1st won total​
30/36
30/36
!
77%
77%
1st won %
!
83%
83%
18/38
18/38
2nd won total​
8/15
8/15
47%
47%
2nd won %
53%
53%
-- Break Points --
5/13
5/13
BP won
3/5
3/5
5/13
5/13
Avg BP won
3/5
3/5
38%
38%
Won
!
60%
60%
6
6
Conceded
2
2
6
6
Avg Conceded
2
2
4
4
Broken
0
0
4
4
Avg Broken
!
0
0
2
2
Saved
2
2

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Matsuda Yamanaka
Match played 1 1
Tot Set 3 2
Tot Games 34 17
Pts 107-99 63-45
Total Points 206 108
Winners 41 30
%Winners 38% 48%

Both Matsuda and Yamanaka played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Koki Matsuda dropped 1 set while Taiyo Yamanaka hasn’t conceded a set so far. Matsuda has played 1 set more than Yamanaka (3 vs 2). Therefore, Matsuda played 17 games more than Yamanaka. Matsuda scored 41 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese managed to score 30 winners (48%).

Serve Performance

Serve Matsuda Yamanaka
Aces 5 2
Avg per match 5 2
1st in 53/91 36/51
%1st in 58% 71%
1st pts 41/53 30/36
%1st pts 77% 83%
2nd pts 18/38 8/15
%2nd pts 47% 53%

Matsuda bagged 5 aces . Yamanaka managed to score 2 aces . Matsuda won 77% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Yamanaka won 83% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Matsuda Yamanaka
Won 5 3
Converted 5/13 3/5
% Converted 38% 60%
Conceded 6 2
Saved 2 2
% Saved 33% 100%
Times Broken 4 0

Matsuda broke his opponent 5 times with a 38% conversion rate. Matsuda surrendered his serve 4 times and he saved 33% of the break points that he conceded. The Japanese broke his opponent 3 times with a 60% conversion rate. Yamanaka was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 2 break points.

Matsuda
Q1
Saitoh
Total
Score 7-5 5-7 6-4
Tot Set 3 3
Tot Games 34 34
pts 107-99 107-99
Total points 206 206
Winners 41 41
%Winners 38% 38%
SERVE
Aces 5 5
Double Faults 3 3
1st in 53/91 53/91
% 1st in 58% 58%
1st pts 41/53 41/53
% 1st pts 77% 77%
2nd pts 18/38 18/38
% 2nd pts 47% 47%
Breaks
Won 5 5
Converted 5/13 5/13
Converted % 38% 38%
Conceded 6 6
Saved 2/6 2
Saved % 33% 33%
Times Broken 4 4
Yamanaka
Q1
Takahata
Total
Score 6-1 6-4
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 17 17
pts 63-45 63-45
Total points 108 108
Winners 30 30
%Winners 48% 48%
SERVE
Aces 2 2
Double Faults 0 0
1st in 36/51 36/51
% 1st in 71% 71%
1st pts 30/36 30/36
% 1st pts 83% 83%
2nd pts 8/15 8/15
% 2nd pts 53% 53%
Breaks
Won 3 3
Converted 3/5 3/5
Converted % 60% 60%
Conceded 2 2
Saved 2/2 2
Saved % 100% 100%
Times Broken 0 0

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