Sho Shimabukuro and Elias Ymer will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Seoul Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 2:30 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sho Shimabukuro who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Sho Shimabukuro is the pick to win this match.
Sho Shimabukuro -> 1.54
Elias Ymer -> 2.28

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Prediction and head to head Sho Shimabukuro vs. Elias Ymer

This will be the 2^nd time that Sho Shimabukuro and Elias Ymer face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Ymer (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they played, Ymer won 7-6(3) 6-3 6-1 in the qualifications in at the Wimbledon back in 2024.

Sho Shimabukuro

Ranked no. 193, the Japanese reached the semifinal after beating Omar Jasika 6-3 5-7 7-6(4), Rio Noguchi 6-4 6-3 and Kasidit Samrej 6-3 6-4.

In the quarter, Shimabukuro had a good straight sets win against Samrej (6-3 6-4). During the match, Shimabukuro scored 76 points vs Samrej’s 64. Shimabukuro was pretty aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Regarding the service games, Shimabukuro made 8 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Sho Shimabukuro lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Shimabukuro put 60% of his first serves in, winning 76% (29/38) of the points behind his 1st serve and 36% (9/25) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Samrej 5 times after converting 42% of his break points (5/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Japanese has lost 1 set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.

Shimabukuro has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (267-167). 23-18 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Shimabukuro has a composed 201-121 match record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Zhangjiagang Challenger where he defeated Oliver Crawford in the final 6-3 3-6 7-5.

The Japanese has an overall 26-21 win-loss record in 2025, 23-18 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Seoul Challenger

Elias Ymer

Ranked no. 204, Elias got to the semifinal after defeating Renta Tokuda 5-7 6-1 6-0, Kokoro Isomura 6-2 6-3 and Jurij Rodionov 6-4 3-6 6-2.

In the quarter, The Swede defeated Rodionov (6-4 3-6 6-2). During the match Ymer scored 85 points vs Rodionov’s 79. Elias was pretty aggressive to blast 37 winners.

About the serving games, Ymer made 6 aces and he was very steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Elias Ymer lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Ymer put 59% of his first serves in, winning 79% (37/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (15/32) on the 2nd serve. The Swede broke Rodionov 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ymer has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

The Swede’s best result of the year was getting to the final in the Chennai Challenger.

The Swede has a compiled 30-27 win-loss record in 2025, 11-5 on hard (See FULL STATS)

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Previously in the Seoul Challenger

Previously, his best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Shimabukuro	Ymer
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	8
Tot Games	72	69
Pts	255-219	235-186
Total Points	474	421
Winners	98	96
%Winners	38%	41%

Both Shimabukuro and Ymer played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Sho Shimabukuro dropped 1 set, while Elias Ymer lost 2 sets. Shimabukuro has played 1 set(s) less than Ymer (7 vs 8). However, it’s interesting to notice that Shimabukuro played 3 games more than Ymer. Sho scored 98 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Ymer struck 96 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Shimabukuro	Ymer
Aces	16	21
Avg per match	5.3	7
1st in	124/205	126/200
%1st in	60%	63%
1st pts	98/124	96/126
%1st pts	79%	76%
2nd pts	36/81	38/74
%2nd pts	44%	51%

Shimabukuro managed to score 16 aces (5.3 per match). Ymer bagged 21 aces (7 per match). Shimabukuro won 79% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 44% of the points. On the other side, Ymer won 76% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Shimabukuro	Ymer
Won	13	15
Converted	13/32	15/33
% Converted	41%	45%
Conceded	13	12
Saved	7	6
% Saved	54%	50%
Times Broken	6	6

Sho broke his opponents 13 times with a 41% conversion rate. The Japanese dropped his serve 6 times and he saved 54% of the break points that he conceded. The Swede broke his opponents 15 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Swede conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.

Shimabukuro
	R1 Jasika	R2 Noguchi	1/4 Samrej	Total
Score	6-3 5-7 7-64	6-4 6-3	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	3	2	2	7
Tot Games	34	19	19	72
pts	113-111	66-44	76-64	255-219
Total points	224	110	140	474
Winners	46	23	29	98
%Winners	41%	35%	38%	38%
SERVE
Aces	4	4	8	16
Double Faults	9	0	3	12
1st in	60/98	26/44	38/63	124/205
% 1st in	61%	59%	60%	60%
1st pts	46/60	23/26	29/38	98/124
% 1st pts	77%	88%	76%	79%
2nd pts	16/38	11/18	9/25	36/81
% 2nd pts	42%	61%	36%	44%
Breaks
Won	4	4	5	13
Converted	4/13	4/7	5/12	13/32
Converted %	31%	57%	42%	41%
Conceded	7	1	5	13
Saved	4/7	0/1	3/5	7
Saved %	57%	0%	60%	39%
Times Broken	3	1	2	6

Ymer
	R1 Tokuda	R2 Isomura	1/4 Rodionov	Total
Score	5-7 6-1 6-0	6-2 6-3	6-4 3-6 6-2
Tot Set	3	2	3	8
Tot Games	25	17	27	69
pts	82-60	68-47	85-79	235-186
Total points	142	115	164	421
Winners	33	26	37	96
%Winners	40%	38%	44%	41%
SERVE
Aces	9	6	6	21
Double Faults	6	1	0	7
1st in	44/72	35/49	47/79	126/200
% 1st in	61%	71%	59%	63%
1st pts	33/44	26/35	37/47	96/126
% 1st pts	75%	74%	79%	76%
2nd pts	14/28	9/14	15/32	38/74
% 2nd pts	50%	64%	47%	51%
Breaks
Won	7	4	4	15
Converted	7/14	4/9	4/10	15/33
Converted %	50%	44%	40%	45%
Conceded	4	3	5	12
Saved	1/4	2/3	3/5	6
Saved %	25%	67%	60%	51%
Times Broken	3	1	2	6

Tennis Scores in Seoul Challenger

• Chak Lam Coleman WongLam Coleman Wong – Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Elias YmerYmer – Jurij RodionovRodionov (6-4 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Yi ZhouZhou – Frederico Ferreira SilvaFerreira Silva (7-6⁶ 6-3) – See score progression
• Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Kasidit SamrejSamrej (6-3 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Elias YmerYmer (0-1) – H2H and prediction