Alex De Minaur and Alexander Bublik will face off in the quarter of the Rolex Paris Masters for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 4:30 pm on COURT CENTRAL. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.7
Alexander Bublik -> 2.15
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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik
This will be the 5th time that Alex De Minaur and Alexander Bublik face off. The head to head is 3-1 for De Minaur (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they locked horns, Bublik won 2-6 2-6 6-4 6-3 6-2 in the 2nd round in at the French Open back in May 2025.
Highlights Alexander Bublik vs Alex De Minaur – French Open 29-May-2025
Alex De Minaur
55 - 20win/loss
7
6
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56-24 | 30-11 | 10-5 | 13-6 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6 (career-high), Alex reached the quarter after defeating Gabriel Diallo 7-6(8) 4-6 6-3 and Karen Khachanov 6-2 6-2.
In the 3rd round, De Minaur had a good straight sets win against Khachanov (6-2 6-2). During the match, De Minaur scored 58 points vs Khachanov’s 39. Alex was quite aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about the service games, De Minaur managed to score 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Alex De Minaur was exceptionally effective on serve to win 79% (22/28) of his 1st serve and 63% (15/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Australian broke Khachanov 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alex has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 55% of the points he played.
De Minaur has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 65% of his matches (414-225). 12-2 on indoor hard courts in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, De Minaur has a composed 79-46 win-loss record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Washington where he defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final 5-7 6-1 7-6(3).
De Minaur has a composed 55-20 win-loss record in 2025, 12-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Paris
Alexander Bublik
47 - 22win/loss
11
11
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 48-24 | 12-11 | 23-6 | 8-6 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-25 | 10-11 | 5-6 | 6-4 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-30 | 3-12 | 7-9 | 9-7 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-27 | 5-8 | 2-6 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 14-12 | 4-6 | 10-8 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 16 (career-high), the Kazakhstani reached the quarter after beating Alexei Popyrin 6-4 6-3, Corentin Moutet 6-3 7-5 and Taylor Fritz 7-6(5) 6-2.
In the 3rd round, Alexander had a good straight sets win against Fritz (7-65 6-2). During the match Bublik scored 81 points vs Fritz’s 69. Alexander was extremely aggressive to blast 35 winners.
About the serving games, Bublik bagged 11 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Alexander Bublik was pretty effective on serve to win 74% (35/47) of his 1st serve and 61% (14/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Kazakhstani broke Fritz twice after converting 20% of his break points (2/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Kazakhstani hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was winning the title the Turin Challenger where he defeated Bu Yunchaokete in the final 6-3 6-3 and in Halle where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and in Gstaad where he overcame Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the final 6-4 4-6 6-3 and in Kitzbuhel where he overcame Arthur Cazaux in the final 6-4 6-3 and in Hangzhou where he defeated Valentin Royer in the final 7-6(4) 7-6(4).
Bublik has a composed 47-22 win-loss record in 2025, 7-4 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Paris
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 48 | 61 |
| Pts | 163-136 | 215-185 |
| Total Points | 299 | 400 |
| Winners | 53 | 101 |
| %Winners | 33% | 47% |
De Minaur played 2 matches while Bublik competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Alex De Minaur conceded 1 set while Alexander Bublik hasn’t lost a set so far. De Minaur has played 1 set(s) less than Bublik (5 vs 6). Therefore, De Minaur played 13 games less than Bublik. Alex scored 53 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Alexander fired 101 winners (47%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 30 |
| Avg per match | 2.5 | 10 |
| 1st in | 76/147 | 126/198 |
| %1st in | 52% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 53/76 | 101/126 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 44/71 | 36/72 |
| %2nd pts | 62% | 50% |
De Minaur fired 5 aces (2.5 per match). Bublik made 30 aces (10 per match). De Minaur won 70% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Bublik won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 50% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 7 |
| Converted | 8/15 | 7/25 |
| % Converted | 53% | 28% |
| Conceded | 12 | 9 |
| Saved | 8 | 8 |
| % Saved | 67% | 89% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 |
De Minaur broke his opponents 8 times with a 53% conversion rate. Alex lost his serve 4 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Alexander broke his opponents 7 times with a 28% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani conceded his serve once and he saved 89% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | ||||
| R2 Diallo | R3 Khachanov | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-68 4-6 6-3 | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 16 | 48 | |
| pts | 105-97 | 58-39 | 163-136 | |
| Total points | 202 | 97 | 299 | |
| Winners | 31 | 22 | 53 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 38% | 33% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 48/95 | 28/52 | 76/147 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 54% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 31/48 | 22/28 | 53/76 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 79% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 29/47 | 15/24 | 44/71 | |
| % 2nd pts | 62% | 63% | 62% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 4/5 | 8/15 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 80% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 3 | 12 | |
| Saved | 5/9 | 3/3 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 56% | 100% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Bublik | |||||
| R1 Popyrin | R2 Moutet | R3 Fritz | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-3 7-5 | 7-65 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 21 | 21 | 61 | |
| pts | 61-54 | 73-62 | 81-69 | 215-185 | |
| Total points | 115 | 135 | 150 | 400 | |
| Winners | 32 | 34 | 35 | 101 | |
| %Winners | 52% | 47% | 43% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 13 | 6 | 11 | 30 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 36/58 | 43/70 | 47/70 | 126/198 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 61% | 67% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 32/36 | 34/43 | 35/47 | 101/126 | |
| % 1st pts | 89% | 79% | 74% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/22 | 15/27 | 14/23 | 36/72 | |
| % 2nd pts | 32% | 56% | 61% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 2/10 | 2/10 | 7/25 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 20% | 20% | 28% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 1/1 | 4/4 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 100% | 100% | 138% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
Tennis Scores in Paris
- Alexander BublikBublik – Taylor FritzFritz (7-65 6-2) – See score progression
- Valentin VacherotVacherot – Cameron NorrieNorrie (7-64 6-4) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Ben SheltonShelton – Andrey RublevRublev (7-66 6-3) – See score progression
- Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (3-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Valentin VacherotVacherot – Cameron NorrieNorrie (7-6(4) 6-4) – See score progression
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (3-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Alexander BublikBublik – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (7-6(5) 6-2) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Ben SheltonShelton – Andrey RublevRublev (7-6(6) 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alexander BublikBublik – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Alexander ZverevZverev (1-5) – H2H and prediction
- Valentin VacherotVacherot – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Jannik SinnerSinner (2-3) – H2H and prediction