Daniil Medvedev and Lorenzo Sonego will square off in the 3^rd round of the Rolex Paris Masters for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 6:30 pm on COURT 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.27
Lorenzo Sonego -> 3.74

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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Lorenzo Sonego

This will be the 4^th time that Daniil Medvedev and Lorenzo Sonego fight against each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on indoor hard courts.

The last time that they played, Medvedev won 3-6 6-3 6-3 in the 2^nd round in Dubai back in 2024.

Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Lorenzo Sonego – Dubai 28-February-2024

Daniil Medvedev

Ranked no. 13, Medvedev got to the 3^rd round after defeating Jaume Antoni Munar Clar 6-1 6-3 and Grigor Dimitrov w/o.

In the 2^nd round, Medvedev defeated Dimitrov (w/o). During the match, Medvedev and Dimitrov scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 13 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. The Russian was not very aggressive to strike just winners.

Talking about the service games, Medvedev wasn’t able to score even 1 ace and he was very consistent in conceding no double faults. Daniil Medvedev conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of his first serves in, win 0% (0) of the points behind his 1st serve and 0% (0) on the 2nd serve.

Medvedev has a fantastic match record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (497-204). 9-3 on indoor hard courts in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has an overall 127-54 record in the last years on indoor hard courts.

His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Almaty where he defeated Corentin Moutet in the final 7-5 4-6 6-3.

Medvedev has an overall 40-22 win-loss record in 2025, 9-3 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Paris

Lorenzo Sonego

Ranked no. 45, Lorenzo reached the 3^rd round after beating Sebastian Korda 6-2 6-3 and Lorenzo Musetti 3-6 6-3 6-1.

In the 2^nd round against Musetti, Lorenzo recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 6-1). During the match Sonego scored 75 points vs Musetti’s 65. Lorenzo was pretty aggressive to blast 30 winners.

About the serving games, Sonego blasted 4 aces and he was pretty steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Lorenzo Sonego was exceptionally effective on serve to win 75% (30/40) of his 1st serve and 67% (20/30) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Lorenzo broke Musetti 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

The Italian has a composed 22-27 win-loss record in 2025, 5-4 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Paris

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2020. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Medvedev	Sonego
Match played	1	2
Tot Set	2	5
Tot Games	16	42
Pts	58-40	142-114
Total Points	98	256
Winners	29	53
%Winners	50%	37%

Medvedev played 1 match while Sonego competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Lorenzo Sonego conceded 1 set while Daniil Medvedev hasn’t conceded a set so far. Medvedev has played 3 set(s) less than Sonego (2 vs 5). Therefore, Medvedev played 26 games less than Sonego. Medvedev scored 29 winners (50% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian scored 53 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Medvedev	Sonego
Aces	6	7
Avg per match	6	3.5
1st in	36/53	68/118
%1st in	68%	58%
1st pts	29/36	53/68
%1st pts	81%	78%
2nd pts	7/17	30/50
%2nd pts	41%	60%

Medvedev blasted 6 aces . Sonego blasted 7 aces (3.5 per match). Medvedev won 81% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 41% of the points. On the other side, Sonego won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Medvedev	Sonego
Won	4	9
Converted	4/7	9/14
% Converted	57%	64%
Conceded	0	8
Saved	0	6
% Saved	0%	75%
Times Broken	0	2

The Russian broke his opponent 4 times with a 57% conversion rate. Daniil was rock solid on his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 0 break points. Lorenzo broke his opponents 9 times with a 64% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.

Medvedev
	R1 Munar Clar	R2 Dimitrov	Total
Score	6-1 6-3	w/o
Tot Set	2	–	2
Tot Games	16	–	16
pts	58-40	–	58-40
Total points	98	–	98
Winners	29	–	29
%Winners	50%	–	50%
SERVE
Aces	6	–	6
Double Faults	3	–	3
1st in	36/53	–	36/53
% 1st in	68%	–	68%
1st pts	29/36	–	29/36
% 1st pts	81%	–	81%
2nd pts	7/17	–	7/17
% 2nd pts	41%	–	41%
Breaks
Won	4	–	4
Converted	4/7	–	4/7
Converted %	57%	–	57%
Conceded	0	–	0
Saved	0/0	–	0
Saved %	–	–	0%
Times Broken	0	–	0

Sonego
	R1 Korda	R2 Musetti	Total
Score	6-2 6-3	3-6 6-3 6-1
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	17	25	42
pts	67-49	75-65	142-114
Total points	116	140	256
Winners	23	30	53
%Winners	34%	40%	37%
SERVE
Aces	3	4	7
Double Faults	2	0	2
1st in	28/48	40/70	68/118
% 1st in	58%	57%	58%
1st pts	23/28	30/40	53/68
% 1st pts	82%	75%	78%
2nd pts	10/20	20/30	30/50
% 2nd pts	50%	67%	60%
Breaks
Won	5	4	9
Converted	5/9	4/5	9/14
Converted %	56%	80%	64%
Conceded	4	4	8
Saved	3/4	3/4	6
Saved %	75%	75%	75%
Times Broken	1	1	2

Tennis Scores in Paris

• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Gabriel DialloDiallo (7-6⁸ 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli (6-7⁵ 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Joao FonsecaFonseca (6-1 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (w/o) – See score progression
• Alexander BublikBublik – Corentin MoutetMoutet (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (3-6 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Zizou BergsBergs (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Arthur CazauxCazaux (7-6⁵ 6-4) – See score progression
• Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Alexandre MullerMuller (5-7 7-6⁵ 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Valentin VacherotVacherot – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (6-7⁹ 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (7-5 1-6 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Casper RuudRuud (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz (4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Learner TienTien (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Ben SheltonShelton – Flavio CobolliCobolli (7-6⁴ 6-3) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Aleksandar VukicVukic (7-6⁴ 6-2) – See score progression
• Alexander BublikBublik – Corentin MoutetMoutet (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Joao FonsecaFonseca (6-1 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Gabriel DialloDiallo (7-6(8) 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (3-6 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Zizou BergsBergs (6-4 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Valentin VacherotVacherot (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Alexander BublikBublik (3-3) – H2H and prediction
• Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Alexander ZverevZverev (1-5) – H2H and prediction
• Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Jannik SinnerSinner (2-3) – H2H and prediction