Alexander Zverev and Matteo Arnaldi will square off in the 2^nd round of the Erste Bank Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 4:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alexander Zverev who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alexander Zverev is the pick to win this match.
Alexander Zverev -> 1.25
Matteo Arnaldi -> 3.92

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Prediction and head to head Alexander Zverev vs. Matteo Arnaldi

This will be the 3^rd time that Alexander Zverev and Matteo Arnaldi face off. The head to head is 2-0 for Zverev (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on indoor hard courts.

The last time that they competed against each other, Zverev won 6-7(5) 6-3 6-2 in the 3^rd round in Toronto back in July 2025.

Highlights Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Arnaldi – Toronto 31-July-2025

Alexander Zverev

Ranked no. 3, the German reached the 2^nd round after defeating Jacob Fearnley 6-4 1-6 7-6(5).

In the 1^st round, The German defeated Fearnley (6-4 1-6 7-6⁵). During the match, Zverev scored 92 points vs Fearnley’s 91. The German was quite aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Regarding the service games, Zverev blasted 5 aces and he was very steady in conceding no double faults. Overall, Alexander Zverev was extremely efficient on serve to win 72% (38/53) of his 1st serve and 74% (20/27) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The German broke Fearnley once after converting 14% of his break points (1/7).

Zverev has a remarkable win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 72% of his matches (494-195). 1-2 on indoor hard courts in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Zverev has an aggregate 90-39 win-loss record in the last years on indoor hard courts.

His best result of the current season was conquering the title in Munich where he defeated Ben Shelton in the final 6-2 6-4.

Zverev has a compiled 49-21 win-loss record in 2025, 1-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Vienna

Matteo Arnaldi

Ranked no. 72, Matteo reached the 2^nd round after beating Jesper De Jong 6-4 7-6(5), Tristan Schoolkate 7-6(5) 6-3 and Aleksandar Kovacevic 7-5 6-4.

In the 1^st round, Arnaldi had a good straight sets win against Kovacevic (7-5 6-4). During the match Arnaldi scored 77 points vs Kovacevic’s 70. Matteo was exceptionally aggressive to blast 35 winners.

About the serving games, Arnaldi bagged 12 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi was quite efficient on serve to win 80% (35/44) of his 1st serve and 52% (14/27) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Arnaldi broke Kovacevic twice after converting 22% of his break points (2/9).

Arnaldi’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Delray Beach.

Matteo has an aggregate 23-24 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Vienna

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Zverev	Arnaldi
Match played	1	3
Tot Set	3	6
Tot Games	30	67
Pts	92-91	241-217
Total Points	183	458
Winners	38	108
%Winners	41%	45%

Zverev played 1 match while Arnaldi competed in 3 matches. Arnaldi started his run from the qualifications while Zverev had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Alexander Zverev surrendered 1 set while Matteo Arnaldi hasn’t conceded a set so far. Zverev has played 3 set(s) less than Arnaldi (3 vs 6). Therefore, Zverev played 37 games less than Arnaldi. Zverev scored 38 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Arnaldi fired 108 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Zverev	Arnaldi
Aces	5	26
Avg per match	5	8.7
1st in	53/80	147/249
%1st in	66%	59%
1st pts	38/53	108/147
%1st pts	72%	73%
2nd pts	20/27	54/102
%2nd pts	74%	53%

Zverev blasted 5 aces . Arnaldi managed to score 26 aces (8.7 per match). Zverev won 72% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 74% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Zverev	Arnaldi
Won	1	7
Converted	1/7	7/18
% Converted	14%	39%
Conceded	2	17
Saved	0	14
% Saved	0%	82%
Times Broken	2	3

Alexander broke his opponent once with a 14% conversion rate. Zverev lost his serve twice and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 7 times with a 39% conversion rate. Matteo conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded.

Zverev
	R1 Fearnley	Total
Score	6-4 1-6 7-65
Tot Set	3	3
Tot Games	30	30
pts	92-91	92-91
Total points	183	183
Winners	38	38
%Winners	41%	41%
SERVE
Aces	5	5
Double Faults	0	0
1st in	53/80	53/80
% 1st in	66%	66%
1st pts	38/53	38/53
% 1st pts	72%	72%
2nd pts	20/27	20/27
% 2nd pts	74%	74%
Breaks
Won	1	1
Converted	1/7	1/7
Converted %	14%	14%
Conceded	2	2
Saved	0/2	0
Saved %	0%	0%
Times Broken	2	2

Arnaldi
	Q1 De	Q3 Schoolkate	R1 Kovacevic	Total
Score	6-4 7-65	7-65 6-3	7-5 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	23	22	22	67
pts	91-80	73-67	77-70	241-217
Total points	171	140	147	458
Winners	40	33	35	108
%Winners	44%	45%	45%	45%
SERVE
Aces	7	7	12	26
Double Faults	2	4	4	10
1st in	57/94	46/84	44/71	147/249
% 1st in	61%	55%	62%	59%
1st pts	40/57	33/46	35/44	108/147
% 1st pts	70%	72%	80%	73%
2nd pts	18/37	22/38	14/27	54/102
% 2nd pts	49%	58%	52%	53%
Breaks
Won	3	2	2	7
Converted	3/6	2/3	2/9	7/18
Converted %	50%	67%	22%	39%
Conceded	7	6	4	17
Saved	5/7	5/6	4/4	14
Saved %	71%	83%	100%	254%
Times Broken	2	1	0	3

Tennis Scores in Vienna

• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Filip MisolicMisolic (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (7-6⁴ 7-6²) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Corentin MoutetMoutet (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Cameron NorrieNorrie (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Filip MisolicMisolic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Flavio CobolliCobolli (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alexander BublikBublik (1-0) – H2H and prediction