Aryan Shah and Keegan Smith will play each other in the qualifications of the Sioux Falls Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 3:00 pm on SIOUX FALLS FORD LINCOLN STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryan Shah who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryan Shah is the pick to win this match.
Aryan Shah -> 1.87
Keegan Smith -> 1.87

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Prediction and head to head Aryan Shah vs. Keegan Smith

There is no head to head record between Aryan Shah and Keegan Smith since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Aryan Shah

Ranked no. 391, the Indian reached the qualifications after defeating Ozan Baris 7-5 6-4.

In the qualifications, The Indian had a good straight sets win against Baris (7-5 6-4). During the match, Shah scored 71 points vs Baris’s 62. The Indian was pretty aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Regarding the service games, Shah scored 2 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Aryan Shah was quite effective on serve to win 74% (23/31) of his 1st serve and 54% (19/35) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The Indian broke Baris 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).

Shah has a solid match record in the last 4 years having won 63% of his matches (84-49). 1-1 on indoor hard courts in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Shah has an overall3-2 match record in the last 4 years on indoor hard courts.

Shah’s best result of the season was reaching the final in M25 Ahmedabad.

Shah has a composed 34-22 win-loss record in 2025, 1-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Sioux Falls Challenger

Aryan has never competed in this tournament before.

Keegan Smith

Ranked no. 558, Smith reached the qualifications after defeating Joshua Sheehy 6-3 6-3.

In the qualifications, Smith had a good straight sets win against Sheehy (6-3 6-3). During the match Smith scored 60 points vs Sheehy’s 47. Keegan was very aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about serving, Smith scored 8 aces and he was very solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Keegan Smith was exceptionally effective on serve to win 83% (33/40) of his 1st serve and 60% (6/10) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Sheehy 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).

Smith’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in M15 San Diego and M15 Fayetteville.

The American has an overall 33-17 win-loss record in 2025, 7-6 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Sioux Falls Challenger

Previously, his best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Shah	Smith
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	22	18
Pts	71-62	60-47
Total Points	133	107
Winners	23	33
%Winners	32%	55%

Both Shah and Smith played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Shah and Smith have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Shah played 4 games more than Smith. Aryan scored 23 winners (32% of the total points). On the other side, Keegan struck 33 winners (55%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Shah	Smith
Aces	2	8
Avg per match	2	8
1st in	31/66	40/50
%1st in	47%	80%
1st pts	23/31	33/40
%1st pts	74%	83%
2nd pts	19/35	6/10
%2nd pts	54%	60%

Shah recorded 2 aces . Smith scored 8 aces . Shah won 74% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Smith won 83% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Shah	Smith
Won	4	3
Converted	4/5	3/10
% Converted	80%	30%
Conceded	6	3
Saved	4	3
% Saved	67%	100%
Times Broken	2	0

Shah broke his opponent 4 times with a 80% conversion rate. Aryan lost his serve twice and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponent 3 times with a 30% conversion rate. Keegan was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 3 break points.

Shah
	Q1 Baris	Total
Score	7-5 6-4
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	22	22
pts	71-62	71-62
Total points	133	133
Winners	23	23
%Winners	32%	32%
SERVE
Aces	2	2
Double Faults	4	4
1st in	31/66	31/66
% 1st in	47%	47%
1st pts	23/31	23/31
% 1st pts	74%	74%
2nd pts	19/35	19/35
% 2nd pts	54%	54%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/5	4/5
Converted %	80%	80%
Conceded	6	6
Saved	4/6	4
Saved %	67%	67%
Times Broken	2	2

Smith
	Q1 Sheehy	Total
Score	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	18	18
pts	60-47	60-47
Total points	107	107
Winners	33	33
%Winners	55%	55%
SERVE
Aces	8	8
Double Faults	0	0
1st in	40/50	40/50
% 1st in	80%	80%
1st pts	33/40	33/40
% 1st pts	83%	83%
2nd pts	6/10	6/10
% 2nd pts	60%	60%
Breaks
Won	3	3
Converted	3/10	3/10
Converted %	30%	30%
Conceded	3	3
Saved	3/3	3
Saved %	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0

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