Pablo Carreno-Busta and Luca Van Assche will fight against each other in the final of the Olbia Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:00 pm on CLOTO ARENA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.54
Luca Van Assche -> 2.36

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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Luca Van Assche

There is no head to head record between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Luca Van Assche since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Ranked no. 104, Pablo got to the final after defeating Pierluigi Basile 6-2 6-7(5) 6-3, Luka Pavlovic 3-6 6-1 6-2, Alejandro Tabilo 6-3 1-6 7-6(3) and Martin Landaluce 6-2 3-6 6-3.

In the semifinal, Pablo defeated Landaluce (6-2 3-6 6-3). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 94 points vs Landaluce’s 81. Pablo was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.

Regarding the service games, Carreno-Busta bagged 7 aces and he was pretty steady in conceding no double faults. Pablo Carreno-Busta lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Carreno-Busta put 75% of his first serves in, winning 69% (40/58) of the points behind his 1st serve and 58% (11/19) on the 2nd serve. Pablo broke Landaluce 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Pablo has lost 4 set in this competition to win 53% of the points he played.

Carreno-Busta has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (291-193). 25-9 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Carreno-Busta has a compiled 140-76 record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current season was winning the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he defeated Alejandro Moro Canas in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he defeated Filip Misolic in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Villena Challenger where he beat Hugo Grenier in the final 4-6 6-1 6-4.

Carreno-Busta has an overall 40-25 win-loss record in 2025, 25-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Olbia Challenger

Pablo has never competed in this tournament before.

Luca Van Assche

Ranked no. 238, the French player got to the final after beating Stefano Travaglia 7-5 1-6 6-3, Vit Kopriva 6-3 6-2, Edas Butvilas 6-3 7-5 and Hugo Grenier 3-6 6-1 6-1

.

In the semifinal against Grenier, Luca recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-1 6-1). During the match Van scored 95 points vs Grenier’s 77. The French player was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about serving, Van recorded 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Luca Van Assche lost the serve 5 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Van put 61% of his first serves in, winning 53% (31/59) of the points behind his 1st serve and 61% (23/38) on the 2nd serve. The French player broke Grenier 8 times after converting 53% of his break points (8/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The French player has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Van’s best result of the season was reaching the final in the Zagreb Challenger.

The French player has a composed 28-22 win-loss record in 2025, 6-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Carreno-Busta	Van
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	12	10
Tot Games	109	89
Pts	380-339	317-262
Total Points	719	579
Winners	174	122
%Winners	46%	38%

Both Carreno-Busta and Van played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Pablo Carreno-Busta lost 4 sets, while Luca Van Assche lost 2 sets. Carreno-Busta has played 2 sets more than Van (12 vs 10). Therefore, Carreno-Busta played 20 games more than Van. Pablo scored 174 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, The French player made 122 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Carreno-Busta	Van
Aces	15	10
Avg per match	3.8	2.5
1st in	251/338	186/288
%1st in	74%	65%
1st pts	174/251	122/186
%1st pts	69%	66%
2nd pts	48/87	54/102
%2nd pts	55%	53%

Carreno-Busta recorded 15 aces (3.8 per match). Van scored 10 aces (2.5 per match). Carreno-Busta won 69% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Van won 66% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Carreno-Busta	Van
Won	15	23
Converted	15/33	23/40
% Converted	45%	58%
Conceded	23	24
Saved	15	10
% Saved	65%	42%
Times Broken	8	14

Carreno-Busta broke his opponents 15 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Spaniard dropped his serve 8 times and he saved 65% of the break points that he conceded. Luca broke his opponents 23 times with a 58% conversion rate. Van conceded his serve 14 times and he saved 42% of the break points that he conceded.

Carreno-Busta
	R1 Basile	R2 Pavlovic	1/4 Tabilo	1/2 Landaluce	Total
Score	6-2 6-75 6-3	3-6 6-1 6-2	6-3 1-6 7-63	6-2 3-6 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	3	3	12
Tot Games	30	24	29	26	109
pts	118-97	85-65	83-96	94-81	380-339
Total points	215	150	179	175	719
Winners	55	39	40	40	174
%Winners	47%	46%	48%	43%	46%
SERVE
Aces	7	0	1	7	15
Double Faults	1	0	1	0	2
1st in	74/100	52/66	67/95	58/77	251/338
% 1st in	74%	79%	71%	75%	74%
1st pts	55/74	39/52	40/67	40/58	174/251
% 1st pts	74%	75%	60%	69%	69%
2nd pts	14/26	8/14	15/28	11/19	48/87
% 2nd pts	54%	57%	54%	58%	55%
Breaks
Won	4	4	3	4	15
Converted	4/9	4/8	3/5	4/11	15/33
Converted %	44%	50%	60%	36%	45%
Conceded	9	2	8	4	23
Saved	8/9	1/2	4/8	2/4	15
Saved %	89%	50%	50%	50%	60%
Times Broken	1	1	4	2	8

Van
	R1 Travaglia	R2 Kopriva	1/4 Butvilas	1/2 Grenier	Total
Score	7-5 1-6 6-3	6-3 6-2	6-3 7-5	3-6 6-1 6-1
Tot Set	3	2	2	3	10
Tot Games	28	17	21	23	89
pts	92-87	59-42	71-56	95-77	317-262
Total points	179	101	127	172	579
Winners	38	21	32	31	122
%Winners	41%	36%	45%	33%	38%
SERVE
Aces	3	1	4	2	10
Double Faults	6	1	3	3	13
1st in	53/91	31/43	43/57	59/97	186/288
% 1st in	58%	72%	75%	61%	65%
1st pts	38/53	21/31	32/43	31/59	122/186
% 1st pts	72%	68%	74%	53%	66%
2nd pts	18/38	5/12	8/14	23/38	54/102
% 2nd pts	47%	42%	57%	61%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	7	4	8	23
Converted	4/8	7/9	4/8	8/15	23/40
Converted %	50%	78%	50%	53%	58%
Conceded	9	5	2	8	24
Saved	5/9	2/5	0/2	3/8	10
Saved %	56%	40%	0%	38%	34%
Times Broken	4	3	2	5	14

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – (0-0) – H2H and prediction