Casper Ruud and Ugo Humbert will fight against each other in the final of the BNP Paribas Nordic Open for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Casper Ruud who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Casper Ruud is the pick to win this match.
Casper Ruud -> 1.69
Ugo Humbert -> 2.16

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Prediction and head to head Casper Ruud vs. Ugo Humbert

This will be the 6^th time that Casper Ruud and Ugo Humbert clash against each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Humbert (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on indoor hard courts.

The last time that they locked horns, Ruud won 6-3 4-6 6-1 in the quarter in Monte carlo back in 2024.

Casper Ruud

Ranked no. 12, the Norwegian reached the final after beating Marin Cilic 7-6(2) 6-4, Sebastian Korda 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 and Denis Shapovalov 6-3 6-4.

In the semifinal, Casper had a good straight sets win against Shapovalov (6-3 6-4). During the match, Ruud scored 65 points vs Shapovalov’s 52. Ruud was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.

Talking about the service games, Ruud made 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Casper Ruud lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Ruud put 65% of his first serves in, winning 83% (34/41) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (9/22) on the 2nd serve. The Norwegian broke Shapovalov 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ruud has lost 1 set in this competition to win 55% of the points he played.

Ruud has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 65% of his matches (427-225). 10-1 on indoor hard courts in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Ruud has a compiled 60-35 win-loss record in the last years on indoor hard courts.

His best result of the year was conquering the title in Madrid where he overcame Jack Draper in the final 7-5 3-6 6-4.

Ruud has an overall 36-14 win-loss record in 2025, 10-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Stockholm

Ugo Humbert

Ranked no. 25, the French player reached the final after beating Matteo Berrettini 7-6(5) 6-3

, Lorenzo Sonego 6-7(3) 6-0 6-3 and Holger Rune 4-6 2-2 ret..

In the semifinal against Rune, Ugo had a free pass after Rune retired on a 4-6 2-2 . scoreline.

His best result of the year was winning the title in Marseille where he beat Hamad Medjedovic in the final 7-6(4) 6-4.

Ugo has a composed 22-18 win-loss record in 2025, 8-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Stockholm

Humbert has never competed in this tournament before.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Ruud	Humbert
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	8
Tot Games	75	64
Pts	258-215	223-200
Total Points	473	423
Winners	112	100
%Winners	43%	45%

Both Ruud and Humbert played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Casper Ruud surrendered 1 set, while Ugo Humbert dropped 2 sets. Ruud has played 1 set(s) less than Humbert (7 vs 8). However, it’s interesting to notice that Ruud played 11 games more than Humbert. Casper scored 112 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Ugo made 100 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Ruud	Humbert
Aces	20	14
Avg per match	6.7	4.7
1st in	134/214	141/216
%1st in	63%	65%
1st pts	112/134	100/141
%1st pts	84%	71%
2nd pts	44/80	46/75
%2nd pts	55%	61%

Ruud scored 20 aces (6.7 per match). Humbert struck 14 aces (4.7 per match). Ruud won 84% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Humbert won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Ruud	Humbert
Won	8	8
Converted	8/14	8/17
% Converted	57%	47%
Conceded	13	17
Saved	10	15
% Saved	77%	88%
Times Broken	3	2

Ruud broke his opponents 8 times with a 57% conversion rate. Casper surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 77% of the break points that he conceded. Humbert broke his opponents 8 times with a 47% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve twice and he saved 88% of the break points that he conceded.

Ruud
	R2 Cilic	1/4 Korda	1/2 Shapovalov	Total
Score	7-62 6-4	6-75 6-4 6-4	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	23	33	19	75
pts	84-63	109-100	65-52	258-215
Total points	147	209	117	473
Winners	32	46	34	112
%Winners	38%	42%	52%	43%
SERVE
Aces	7	11	2	20
Double Faults	1	3	1	5
1st in	35/51	58/100	41/63	134/214
% 1st in	69%	58%	65%	63%
1st pts	32/35	46/58	34/41	112/134
% 1st pts	91%	79%	83%	84%
2nd pts	11/16	24/42	9/22	44/80
% 2nd pts	69%	57%	41%	55%
Breaks
Won	2	3	3	8
Converted	2/5	3/3	3/6	8/14
Converted %	40%	100%	50%	57%
Conceded	1	7	5	13
Saved	0/1	6/7	4/5	10
Saved %	0%	86%	80%	55%
Times Broken	1	1	1	3

Humbert
	R2 Berrettini	1/4 Sonego	1/2 Rune	Total
Score	7-65 6-3	6-73 6-0 6-3	4-6 2-2 ret.
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	22	28	14	64
pts	67-57	107-93	49-50	223-200
Total points	124	200	99	423
Winners	32	48	20	100
%Winners	48%	45%	41%	45%
SERVE
Aces	4	8	2	14
Double Faults	2	1	2	5
1st in	40/59	74/110	27/47	141/216
% 1st in	68%	67%	57%	65%
1st pts	32/40	48/74	20/27	100/141
% 1st pts	80%	65%	74%	71%
2nd pts	13/19	24/36	9/20	46/75
% 2nd pts	68%	67%	45%	61%
Breaks
Won	2	5	1	8
Converted	2/2	5/9	1/6	8/17
Converted %	100%	56%	17%	47%
Conceded	0	12	5	17
Saved	0/0	12/12	3/5	15
Saved %	–	100%	60%	53%
Times Broken	0	0	2	2

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Casper RuudRuud (3-2) – H2H and prediction